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may be rude

Knob Twiddlers
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Everything posted by may be rude

  1. wow there's actually a much shorter path to a tie we were 42,918 votes from the election being tied and decided in the house of representatives
  2. found a shorter path, actually. the 2020 election was decided by 102,791 votes across 3 states. "i just wanna find 11,780 votes ... fellas, i need 11,000 votes, give me a break" the recorded phone call in which trump threatens georgia secretary of state brad raffensperger is so damning. notable that it took place on january 2nd. also that january 3rd was the day when doj senior officials threatened to resign en masse because trump was trying to install jeffrey clark as acting attorney general, and clark was ready to send a letter to georgia advising they hold a special session to decide how to appoint electors because of voting irregularities.
  3. it's true that the US's biggest terrorist threat is domestic extremism. thanks for posting, i will watch that. i've always found the pipe bomb part of jan 6 fascinating - 2 bombs were placed, ahead of time, at the party headquarters in DC for both parties, one each, blocks apart, and they were discovered on noon of jan 6. this was quite an operation, to place those, and definitely would be done by someone who very seriously was participating in an attempted coup. it fit with the overall plan - the proud boys planned to breach the capital, but needed a crowd as cover, trump was pressuring and threatening members of congress and pence, and trump sent the crowd. proving the connections between trump, the proud boys, and the pipe bomber is of course difficult and we may (may) never see proof but one notices how the things come together to threaten the congress members and pence to follow the plan prepared by jeffrey clark, rudy giuliani, and others, to overturn the election results. whoever placed those bombs had the balls of a special ops operative. definitely one of the wilder pieces of that whole thing, though there are many wild pieces.
  4. in your first paragraph you say public discourse is dominated by dopamine hooking and social media. you know, watmm is social media and dopamine hooking. in your second paragraph you offer some thoughts on messaging and it's really nothing interesting to me and i don't agree with much of it. i've addressed a lot of the points already in recent pages and in recent replies to you. in your third paragraph you make a guess about what i do or don't do when i'm not posting on watmm. i'm not going to post personal stuff to you in this context. cool assumption though. it's important to you that your posts not be consequential but they are. it's understandable if you are resistant to this, you're not alone. people miss the old world where they could talk bullshit with their friends and it didn't matter. we are in a sociological transition, adapting to a fundamentally different info layer. most information is not propagated like it was before widespread usage of the internet. the people who show up to vote, and the people who don't make it out to vote, they have their opinions and their reasons. where do they get those? political blogs and twitter? discord and youtube? forums and group chats? facebook groups and ad campaigns? cable news and newspapers? in-person conversations and research? all of these things. we can see the reasons that citizens had for voting or not voting, and for how they voted. we can get these reasons in exit polls at election booths, as well as from other polls, focus groups, and research. the opinions that voters have are often the same narratives that get pushed around the internet, even though they're deceptive. they're often constructed and seeded for the political purpose to cause specific results in elections, and people often don't realize that they've been had. a lot of the deceptive narratives that go around do so by people sharing them and repeating them. individuals are a key part of the system.
  5. there are swing voters lurking, and swing state voters. mobilization is a huge factor and will be important in this election. it's also about hitting the right note/laying out the best formulation. you don't know who's reading, could be some big people who take their own actions. there are chains of influence, the universe is weird. especially in this time, it's important that there is signal among the noise.
  6. right here you acknowledge that the solution consists of individuals engaging with others. why does it not count if it's here? where does it count? you suggest in person counts but not online? people do get influenced by what they read online. it can make a difference in how motivated someone is to get out and vote.
  7. weak strawman, buddy. i plainly posted a bullet point list of 20 items but you want to condescend from your horse so you pretend that didn't happen
  8. "the problem with dem messaging is..." - people who don't realize that they are the messagers and they are fucking up dem messaging the easiest take to have is to ride in and be above it all. wow, thanks for the insight i'm doing the work. you're making it harder. but hey wow you seem so above it all wow i am impressed
  9. it's a lame narrative that's not well-grounded in reality. biden is out there being very effective as president. he's fine and great. fox news and other reality subversion operations have been seeding the narrative since 2019. here's a list of accomplishments. Lowering Costs of Families’ Everyday Expenses More People Are Working Than At Any Point in American History Making More in America Rescued the Economy and Changed the Course of the Pandemic Rebuilding our Infrastructure Historic Expansion of Benefits and Services for Toxic Exposed Veterans The First Meaningful Gun Violence Reduction Legislation in 30 Years Protected Marriage for LGBTQI+ and Interracial Couples Historic Confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and Federal Judges of Diverse Backgrounds Rallied the World to Support Ukraine in Response to Putin’s Aggression Strengthened Alliances and Partnerships to Deliver for the American People Successful Counterterrorism Missions Against the Leaders of Al Qaeda and ISIS Executive Orders Protecting Reproductive Rights Historic Student Debt Relief for Middle- and Working-Class Families Ending our Failed Approach to Marijuana Advancing Equity and Racial Justice, Including Historic Criminal Justice Reform Delivering on the Most Aggressive Climate and Environmental Justice Agenda in American History More People with Health Insurance Than Ever Before of course you're right that we're in a very dangerous situation and we're maybe fucked. but it's not because of biden, it's because people's minds are fucked. there are reasons why someone very seasoned and experienced is exactly what we need right now, and there are trade-offs to younger people. some say obama was a better politician than biden but honestly i'm not sure. biden has achieved a number of bipartisan agreements. biden has achieved a number of deft political wins. biden has navigated very difficult territory very successfully. the misconception is a trick that can be illuminated and defused. is he old? sure, he's 81. is he "too old?" no. he's still sharp. biden is fucking great.
  10. his time would be limited. it would share a lot of important, well-formulated information with the source evidence right there. the justice system is a system for establishing and laying out truth. i know what you mean, he hacks the marks, and they're a big segment. i think it would be worth it. people would be tuned in and they would absorb some shit that would make an impression.
  11. it's allowed. but fanni decided to hire this outside prosecutor so people are trying to make accusations like she benefited from money he was paid by the state of georgia because they went on vacations together (she claims to have reimbursed him for dinners or whatever), and maybe defendants will claim that the case is tainted as though she used it to get time with the prosecutor, wade, who has been in the process of divorcing his wife... fani and wade claim their relationship started after she hired him. in any case, fani fucked up. she should not have opened up the prosecution to criticism like this. it's very disappointing. it doesn't mean the case will go away but now fani's office needs to try to make sure it doesn't go away.
  12. that article is from 4 months ago. since then, it was revealed that fanni was banging one of the prosecutors. that allowed for new motions or whatever by defendants, allowing more delay tactics. so i think the court watchers now are not expecting a GA trial to start on that timeframe. i think there's a chance it could still start before the election but i'm not sure and i thinks it's unlikely, if even possible.
  13. interesting. i'm not expecting the georgia trial to start before the election. if it does, that means it would be ongoing up to and through election day, because it's expected to be maybe around 6 months, and the soonest it could be scheduled would be months out from now. it would be pretty funny if trump is in the middle of a 6-month, televised RICO trial for shit like conspiring to threaten election workers and threatening the GA secretary of state to find him 11,000 votes leading up to and during the election. but i won't be surprised if it's delayed until after election day. to be clear for the watmm audience, i was referring to the federal coup trial starting potentially in july or august. that's a whole other coup trial. the supreme court just said it will hear the immunity argument, which is blocking the federal coup trial being scheduled. the SC will hear that on april 22, and will decide in the weeks following, at which point the federal coup trial can be scheduled (assuming the SC does not agree that trump is immune from prosecution, which is considered extremely unlikely). once the SC decides the immunity question, the trial can be scheduled for about 2 months later. so july or august are decent guesses, though it's possible the timeframe could get too close to the election and consequently delayed until after... which would be very unfortunate. but if the federal trial is happening in august then i think it's expected to not last nearly as long as the GA trial, i think the federal trial is expected to be more like 1 month. so we could a verdict before the election. not sure when to expect appeals decisions after a verdict. @ignatius tagging for edit
  14. at least there's not a psychopath at the wheel for this one. will be interesting. looking like the coup trial could be july or august. with a little bit of luck, the republicans could perform very poorly in november.
  15. to those who say that what they say and do doesn't matter biden won the popular vote by 7 million but he won the election by 111,694 votes across 3 states. 158 million people voted.
  16. at 2pm on thursday it's going to be dostrotime
  17. i'm talking about listening to trumpers talk about why they like trump. maybe i could distinguish between those who may vote for him and those who actually like him. probably some people may vote for him in 2024 even though they don't like him. that's a good distinction to make. right. he's a demagogue. a charlatan. a con man. this is really interesting. you're describing a demagogue becoming a tyrant, as the founders feared. his voters think he is being disruptive in a benevolent or acceptable way, because they are buying into the false schtick that i described, and don't realize that he is destructive like cancer. and you're right, that is part of the draw: people like that he is something different and that he is fucking with things. but their perception of that destruction is colored by that schtick i describe, which is false. lending credence to the idea of that fake character he claims to be is what prevents people from seeing his destruction as the cancer that it is. you say "all they care about is someone who acts/feels like they do" and that is the same idea my argument aims to dismantle. trump is not the champion of the people, he doesn't feel like they do. trump despises the people. he's tricked them into thinking that he is like them. he is nothing like regular americans and he is not acting like they would. he's a sociopath and is manipulating people into thinking that he is like them.
  18. i identified the core of trump's political support and laid out a compelling, strong, well-supported argument illuminating that core as obviously a con it was wordy. i tried to edit it down
  19. i listen to sarah longwell's focus group podcast and trump voters are all buying a trick from 2016. the "political outsider champion of the people" idea. that's been a ridiculous idea since 2017. it's absurd: trump stands up for no one but himself, he's famously a narcissist. he's known to espouse a philosophy of admiring deception and greed, and having contempt for honesty and selflessness. he's known to say things like "troops are suckers." the "outsider" narrative is always bogus because as soon as you're running for office you're a politician. that's just by the definition of the word. and then: he's the billionaire yet working people think he is standing up for them against the rich? somehow trump has landed this deceit. it's an inversion of reality: trump pandered to the rich and was extremely corrupt. doing things for the people? there's not much people can say he did for them. he inherited obama's good economy and tanked it. he tried to take the most profound thing away from people, freedom from tyranny. democracy is a fragile experiment of collective self-goverment in a hostile universe, he tried to collapse that. that's what he did for the people. it's interesting that this lame trick from 2016 is what's driving most voters who would reinstall this compromised demon that threatens to destabilize the world as we know it. this is how low-information voters are. it's like they haven't received new information since the 2016 campaign? it's true that a lot of people aren't getting a lot of information. but also information that the fascist collective don't want people to believe gets phase inverted. fallacious narratives are deployed to make people less likely to believe the true thing. that's why it's as though trump doesn't conspire with putin, didn't abuse power and didn't try to overthrow democracy, for a lot of people. true information is systematically dismantled in people's minds by the weird collective of actors subverting reality in the modern information ecosystem. somehow, after all the counter-narratives cancel out, what's left for trumpers is believing his schtick: that "outsider champion of the people" character that he transparently cons people with.
  20. quite dramatic and tragic, the fate of navalny a week after tucker meekly platforms professional deception operative putin for millions of international viewers
  21. blown away by the insight that biden is old scorcese is also 81 and killers of the flower moon is a masterpiece. i love how it focuses on deeply immoral and manipulative deceit, and people who are tricked by people they trust. it even demonstrates how to manipulate someone into being an accomplice. i notice many familiar tricks employed by deniro's character, like persuasion with fallacies such as the Fallacy of Inevitability. see 23:05 for a perfect rebuttal of fools saying things like biden should step down. we would get kamala or newsom, who perform worse in swing states.
  22. @ignatius it was an example that served the point i was making about how deceptive narratives are designed so that people are motivated to post them. i thought you wouldn't mind. you know i'm doing gonzo here. it was more about the biden-is-old narrative than hair sniffing. it was so weird to see jon stewart owning biden for being old like he had no idea what he was doing. i'm trying to explain what's going on because it's just a new world. now this republican special counsel did a hit job on biden while finding no proof of criminality, and i am just aware that the game is now, not october. influence is a cone. put a compelling argument in someone's mind today, and it stays there for the next 9 months and becomes part of the way that person sees things, and aspects get transmitted on to subsequent people. i was putting a donk on things and trying to draw people into this aspect of the situation, because i think we're only just starting to appreciate exactly how the societal configurations are transforming. there's a dark-money-fueled cult ready to tip the us military into authoritarian hands.
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