Jump to content

caze

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,154

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Everything posted by caze

  1. caze
  2. caze
    Yeah, Arizona has been with Biden from the beginning practically, not everyone has called it for him, and the gap has narrowed, but looking very unlikely Trump can close it.
  3. caze
    All the in-person votes there have been counted, all that's left is mail in ballots which should massively favour Biden. He's just going to increase his margin MI and WI too.
  4. caze
    Biden win looking increasingly likely. 271 minimum, doesn't need PA or GA. Ironically the only thing that can save Trump now is counting all the mail in ballots and him doing implausibly well there.
  5. caze
  6. caze
    Biden still has a good chance in Georgia too, he's doing a lot better than Clinton was, and there's a lot of votes left, but they're finished for the evening apparently.
  7. caze
    Biden still has a very good chance to squeak through, he's behind in MN, WI, MI and PA, but there's lots of mail votes for them, likely heavily favouring Biden, and he doesn't need all of them.
  8. caze
    1st flip of the night, first bit of good news
  9. caze
    ...or they're going to wait til tomorrow
  10. caze
    There's more than 1m mail ballots to be counted in PA, we won't know what's happening there til tomorrow.
  11. caze
    He's not going to get all of his agenda implemented if he wins, no politician ever does. But I think it's reasonable to expect him to do a lot of good on various issues, health, housing and energy I think are the big three, think the economy would do well under him too.
  12. caze

    Go Corbyn

    caze replied to lala's topic in General Banter

    No it wasn't, lots of cherry picking, straw men and diversionary bullshit. I laughed out loud at several parts with some of the ridiculous bullshit they said. "should we have been more combative?" jfc. was also funny hearing him describe all the various good things achieved by liberalism, framed as though they were bad things. moron. also some rather disgusting excusing of racism at the end, 'it's ok if Palestinians do it, not being cool with some people being racist, is itself racist'
  13. caze
    supporting evidence for what? climate change, total collapse, or the failure of technological solutions to either of those two issues? there's of course plenty of evidence for the first of those three things, far less evidence for the second, and very little evidence at all for the third - which is the main point of this film. blaming population growth, focusing on de-growth, radical economic/social change, is not going to fix anything, will just lead to very messy chaos, make everything worse if anything. there are obvious and proven technical solutions to these problems, we just need to take the finger out and implement them.
  14. caze
    yes, it's a review of the film. you've already watched half of it, you might as well finish it off and read the review. the TL;DR: it's dishonest neo-Malthusian doomerism. there are legit problems with solar and wind, and definitely with biofuels (though this film lumps them together in a dumb way), but it totally overstates the problem and dismisses (or completely ignores, in the case of nuclear) all of the many possible solutions at hand.
  15. caze
    https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/decarbonization-and-discontents
  16. caze
    that documentary is garbage
  17. caze
    I mean Trump still has a small, but not insignificant, chance of winning, it's just not likely to be because of shy voters.
  18. caze
    If he's right the about the 'shy Trump voter' effect it will have to be much larger than in 2016 to explain the current polling. There are also plenty of other explanations for the disparity between the 2016 polls and the results - we don't know if the 'shy Trump voter' is even a real thing, the margin of error already accounts for a lot of it, via small sample sizes in particular, also they didn't do a lot of polling in the rust belt because they felt it was safe, so it didn't track the changes in the race towards the end, there were more undecided voters in the last election, and another issue was turnout (just because someone says they're a likely voter to a pollster doesn't mean they definitely ended up voting, and turnout was low for Democrats in 2016, while Trump got lots of people to vote who don't usually vote). Another thing, shy voters probably do exist, but they exist for Biden too, so it probably largely cancels out, no way that by itself is enough to explain 2016.
  19. caze
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54761824 Sean Connery
  20. caze

    Go Corbyn

    caze replied to lala's topic in General Banter

    No, what happened here was Jews in the party were being harassed, people who have nothing to do with Israel, and certainly nothing to do with the treatment of Palestinians. And when people complained about this, assholes like you would downplay it and link it to criticism of Israel, linking everything any Jew does with Israel is of course itself anti-Semitic.
  21. caze
    one possible problem is the order in which votes are counted, e.g. certain districts are saying all mail in ballots will be counted after the 3rd, in person votes on election day getting precedence (not sure if in person early voting would be counted with mail-in ballots), so that might skew things to Trump in a big way early on, allowing law suits and the supreme court to steal the election. each state and even district has it's own rules for the order in which they count the ballots though, so it's hard to quantify how big an effect this will have overall.
  22. caze
    one big difference between 2016 and now is turnout, and the fact that more than half the likely electorate has already voted. in Texas around 95% of the total vote count from 2016 has already occurred (!), but many other swing states show similar numbers. democrats seem to be making up the majority of these early voters too, so Trump needs to ensure they match the turnout for republican voters on election day, they might have already lost too much ground though, and even stopping counts after the 3rd may not be enough to save him. in 2016 supressed turnout for the democrats meant the polling was about 4-6 pts off in many states, and Clinton lost states what should have been easy wins, that seems unlikely this time given the number of votes already cast, and Biden only needs to win 1 of the 6 main battleground states, Trump needs them all. another thing is that even if the polling is off by the same amount it was in 2016, Biden would still win comfortably, so it would take an even bigger fuckup there this time round, the pollsters say they've updated their methodology to account for their past mistakes, so hopefully they're right and Biden wins in a landslide.
  23. caze

    Go Corbyn

    caze replied to lala's topic in General Banter

  24. caze

    Go Corbyn

    caze replied to lala's topic in General Banter

    nice
  25. caze
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.