Russia is now bombing Ukraine

[EdamAnchorman]

3 hours ago, zazen said:

And I don't buy that Putin is crazy or whatever. He's out of touch but the russians have plenty of ways of getting rid of him if he's actually crazy.

I also don't think he's crazy, but there are reports that he's become increasingly isolated over the past few years, surrounding himself with fewer and fewer aides and those that are there are just yes-men.  That tends to lead to him becoming out of touch like you said, and could be one reason he seemed to have underestimated the Ukrainian response.  But this increased isolation can also lead to some increasing mental instability as he's continually operating with the world view he has constructed in his mind and if he's only surrounded by yes-men, then there's nobody to give him correct info and bring him down to reality.

Operating like this can lead to a downward spiral of increasing loss of touch with reality.  He's definitely a smart and hard mofo, so there's no predicting with any certainty where this will go.

[zero]

re: sanctions. Putin seems to have miscalculated big time in thinking that war could be paid for by stacks of gold and those pallets of cash he's sitting on. wonder how many economists he has sitting next to him giving him advice? probably not many. bunch of yes men gangster dudes too scared to lay it all out and explain that if all his loot gets sanctioned, then it's gonna be worthless. Ruskie economy will tank because the rube bottoms out, and he can't get anymore dollars/pounds/euros to get those 8 series beemers for all his buddies.

how the average non-english speaking Russian citizen responds is what we're waiting to find out here. how long will they continue to buy the BS propaganda from RT/channel 1 that this is all just a peacekeeping mission? they are the ones that the sanctions are going to do a number on. will it be enough to snap them out of the Putin love fest, and realize he's just the same ol same ol as the commie dudes from back in the USSR days? if the country slowly realizes what he's really up to, then I can't see him sticking around to explain his way out of this to them. he'll probably end up exiled in some golden mansion, that is if he can dodge a bullet coming from someone on his team. 

[chenGOD]

3 hours ago, Rubin Farr said:

It hurts everyone, but it is effective, as history has shown.

Yes, North Korea has really turned things around due to 60 years of crippling sanctions. Poor, malnourished people are really not going to rise up against military dictatorships. See also, Myanmar.

Sanctions should be targeted, not broad. Even then, their efficacy is questionable, and really only work if there are already democratic institutions in place to punish offenders.

[Rubin Farr]

Just now, chenGOD said:

Yes, North Korea has really turned things around due to 60 years of crippling sanctions. Poor, malnourished people are really not going to rise up against military dictatorships. See also, Myanmar.

Sanctions should be targeted, not broad. Even then, their efficacy is questionable, and really only work if there are already democratic institutions in place to punish offenders.

I said civil unrest was effective, not saying crippling sanctions are good, or always well thought out.

[chenGOD]

Just now, Rubin Farr said:

I said civil unrest was effective, not saying crippling sanctions are good, or always well thought out.

Yes that's fair, and sorry I was a little snippish - long morning at work already lol.

The sanctions may work in this case because of how punishing they are, but it will still take months to bring real pain to bear on Putin. The oligarchs may feel it more strongly at first (for example, if Abramovich is required to sell Chelsea) and that may be an avenue for success.

[Rubin Farr]

Just now, chenGOD said:

Yes that's fair, and sorry I was a little snippish - long morning at work already lol.

The sanctions may work in this case because of how punishing they are, but it will still take months to bring real pain to bear on Putin. The oligarchs may feel it more strongly at first (for example, if Abramovich is required to sell Chelsea) and that may be an avenue for success.

no worries, I also realize N. Korea isn't invading another country, so trying to change a hermit dictator's behavior when he's already insulated himself from most of the world, and stays within his borders (so far) is extremely difficult. And he is deified among his citizens like no other leader.

[Satans Little Helper]

Yep. Fighting a war like he is currently doing, costs a lot of money (and resources/organisation). So, even if Putin stays, he'll stop having the resources to just continue claiming former Soviet Union countries eventually. It will become a hermit nation with scary missiles. At least he wont pull the crap he's pulling now.

[zero]

there is so much overlap between the Russian & Ukrainian civil population, many families having relatives in both places. this war is going to cause further familial conflicts, divide those into siding with BS propaganda vs. reality. I talked to a Russian friend about all this who said he has family members that wouldn't be able to be in the same room with each other right now, as they'd end up literally killing each other.

hate to say it, but the Rodney King "why can't we all just get along" video clip has been looping inside my mind since, oh about 2015.

[joshuatxuk]

2 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

This plane is (was) often contracted out around the globe to deliver unusual large / heavy cargo.

I have seen it a few times in the UK at RAF Brize Norton.

So, its kinda symbolic to blow this up. 

Ukraine notably was left with a lot, I mean A LOT of military assets when the USSR fell. Their nuclear arsenal was moved out as a part of post-Soviet treaties but they were also left with new jets including all of the USSR's Tu-160 bombers, which is still their most advanced bomber platform. They eventually gave 8 of these back to Russia in exchange for debt relief and the rest were scrapped to meet US-Russia fleet downsizing treaties. Overall Ukraine was unique among other CIS countries in that it was cash-strapped but still had a lot of surplus and factories and equipment, so it's been sort of the "used car and repair / restore emporium" in the 1990s and 2000s with aircraft going everywhere from war-town Africa to NATO members (Romania used overhauled MiG-21s and IIRC still have some in operation). 

So this particular plane was something of a source of pride and a symbol of Ukrainian ability to serve clients around the world, sometimes military but often for non-military and humanitarian purposes. It was originally designed to be used as the Buran Space Shuttle carrier plane, the program notably cancelled when the Soviet Union fell, and it was a Ukrainian and European backed firm that brought it back to service. Russian forces destroying it, especially right after their failures to takeover other airfields in this war just days ago, was absolutely out of spite. It would not shock me if Putin himself insisted on it over a far more pragmatic choice to capture it.

[joshuatxuk]

On 2/27/2022 at 6:11 AM, cern said:

Why did Putin take a small army with old school tanks from 1952 to just take over 1 island with 10 Ukraine soldiers, 
bombing some buildings and that's all? 

Can you even call this a war? There is something really strange going on with this whole operation. Putin is just testing how the world is gonna react.. 
This is weird this shit. 
 

It's not small, it's 200k troops overall, similar to the US Iraq Invasion force (albeit much smaller than the force used in the 1991 Gulf War). U.S. itself often leaves it's best equipment stateside because it's expensive and/or pragmatically leaves it deployed elsewhere. So for example it's F-22s never went to Iraq or Afghanistan but instead remain on hand in Japan, Germany, etc. as deterrents there. 

It's absolutely a full-fledged war, scroll through r/combat footage. This post-social media, post-HD cameraphone war has illuminated all of the messy and ugly minitia most people only read about - of course unless they actually experience it. WW2 is one of the most well documented wars and yet the media available is a sliver of a percent of what actually went on - the ugly mopping up operations, the surreal imagery of civilians walking and driving down the road as armored vehicles fire at each other. A lot of stuff is punitive, hence the straight up massacre at Snake Island. 

Regarding the use of older equipment, it's not at all unusual, the Russians did it in 2014 and 2008 as well in Georgia. They go in with regular forces, often ones already stationed in the area, who often have adequate but older vehicles, tanks, trucks, etc. They then hit key spots and follow up with more "crack units." They also lean heavily on PMCs (Wagner Group) and Chechen units that are weird volunteer and spec op hybrids to go into direct action and more or less look the other way when this units get either obliterated or succeed but with indiscriminate civilian deaths. Russia doesn't have the money or resources to throw in their top equipment liberally, and also out of caution they've realized Ukrainian air defense and anti-tank capabilities are strong, so they've not flown as many jets over and opted to thrown in older tanks with the hope that would make the Ukrainians use up their anti-tank assets. This is not panning out like they expected though.  

[chenGOD]

29 minutes ago, zero said:

there is so much overlap between the Russian & Ukrainian civil population, many families having relatives in both places. this war is going to cause further familial conflicts, divide those into siding with BS propaganda vs. reality. I talked to a Russian friend about all this who said he has family members that wouldn't be able to be in the same room with each other right now, as they'd end up literally killing each other.

hate to say it, but the Rodney King "why can't we all just get along" video clip has been looping inside my mind since, oh about 2015.

Yeah I have Serbian and Croatian friends, and that whole clusterfuck/genocide left a sour taste in a lot of people's mouths who had been friends previously. One of my friends has a Serbian dad with a Croatian mom, and he says their family get-togethers can be....fractious.

[joshuatxuk]

On 2/25/2022 at 9:44 PM, J3FF3R00 said:

My brother is a scientist and is conservative, although luckily not of the Trump variety. Still, he is a smart guy and still managed to drop some nonsense in my conversation with him today and claimed that he read on the twitters that Russia is driving in mobile crematoriums into Ukraine. I asked him where he read that and he said “a major news source” and I asked which one and he said “it was probably cnn”. Since I had been following the breaking news on cnn for the past few days (among BBC, NPR, NYT and a few other sources), I told him I hadn’t heard any reports on it, so I thought it was fishy. 
Later, I googled it and snopes said it was “unconfirmed” and that the story was reported by Fox News, the NY Post, and a few other conservative rags. I sent him the snopes but didn’t get a reply. My guess is that he read it on Fox News’ twitter and didn’t want to admit it because he knew I would say something critical (which I would have). 
I don’t see how seemingly smart people can circulate misinformation like that without cross-checking sources. I also don’t understand how Anyone with a functioning brain can still accept Fox News as a credible source, in general. 

They want to. They actively and overtly prefer to believe in this hidden knowledge or belong in some club against "the others" for the sake of continued dopamine hits, false purpose, and an escape from any kind of humility or reckoning. I know college educated people fall into the wormhole of the anti-vax anti-mask sentiments. I have relatives and family friends go from reasonable and average folks to believing flat earth conspiracies or being full blown MAGA purely to chase their quest of spite and reactionary ire. My 6 year old and his classmates have a far more mature sense of empathy and logic than a lot of adults in this county. They don't fall for this "post-truth" bullshit, they actively embrace it. We broadly all here see this stuff for what it is - pure lies, delusional and illogical beliefs, hilariously contradictory and nonsensical claims, and to them it's this warm blanket of self-confidence and self-meaning filling a void they don't want to acknowledge, let alone deal with. It's abyss and it's the same phenomenon that has occurred in the past when major portions of a population get wrapped up in movements that lead to death and destruction.

There are plenty of interviews and written accounts of Germans who no just became Nazis but willingly killed civilians, rounded up Jews and other minorities, participated in the invasion of other countries and regret only that Hitler lost. They by all technical means will swear they are not racist, anti-Semitic, or evil but just patriotic Christians saving the world from godless communism. 

While this has been a long time coming, since Reagan really but def after the Tea Party, Trump unmasked a dark reality that a sizable part of this country is fascist and more than willing to embrace authoritarianism for superficial gains and mental highs than work together with others to improve this country's core problems. Another side is perfectly willing to stay apathetic and/or complicity with enlightened centrism or stubborn refusal to appreciate how serious things are. The fact that this over and illegal invasion is making people double-down and not ease up speaks volumes. There are elected Senators literally blaming this war on leftist being obsessed with pronouns. It's that fucking absurd but it's the norm in this day and age.

[zero]

22 minutes ago, joshuatxuk said:

While this has been a long time coming, since Reagan really but def after the Tea Party, Trump unmasked a dark reality that a sizable part of this country is fascist and more than willing to embrace authoritarianism for superficial gains and mental highs than work together with others to improve this country's core problems. Another side is perfectly willing to stay apathetic and/or complicity with enlightened centrism or stubborn refusal to appreciate how serious things are. The fact that this over and illegal invasion is making people double-down and not ease up speaks volumes. There are elected Senators literally blaming this war on leftist being obsessed with pronouns. It's that fucking absurd but it's the norm in this day and age.

we're sorta crossing the thread streams here, but the gazillion dollar question is how to fix this. anyone old enough to remember the pre-internet days will recall that none of "this" seemed as bad back then. I've joked before on here that I think 2007 will be viewed as somewhat of a tipping point for modern society. that was the year the iphone came out, and also facebook started its assent as the social media king. those 2 factors - phones/cameras/internet in everyone's hands, plus having social media that can easily spread disinformation - have IMO had disastrous unintended consequences as far as normal people believing complete and utter bullshit. I know we can't stop the smartphone/social media machine from chugging along. education is a broad tool to fight disinfo, but that's more for the next generation, I think. the current generation of people who have fallen into this trap, all need to be somehow re-programmed, or unplugged from the MAGA Keanu Matrix world they inhabit.

[beerwolf]

So many good in-depth posts here on watmm. I don’t drown myself in news (because it weighs too much on my mind) so with the bbc website, I come here to keep myself informed on the finer details of what’s going on. Kudos to all of of you. 

[chim]

27km long (!) column caught on satellite, heading toward Kyiv. Not looking good..

[zkom]

People mass canceling Netflix because of this:

US’s Netflix to be forced to broadcast Putin propaganda https://www.politico.eu/article/us-streaming-giant-netflix-set-to-broadcast-putin-propaganda/

 

[cichlisuite]

2 minutes ago, chim said:

27km long (!) column caught on satellite, heading toward Kyiv. Not looking good..

It must be a logistics train in there as well so it's not all troops.

Anyway, an incredibly lucrative target for an A-10

[ignatius]

"huddled"

[Alcofribas]

3 minutes ago, ignatius said:

"huddled"

where’s Vicky Vale?

[Satans Little Helper]

You're probably familiar with this talking head on youtube. Here's a rather amusing "what if Trump was president". Should be lovely to serve your Trumpist friends and family.

 

[Berk]

13 minutes ago, ignatius said:

"huddled"

Might as well use Teams jfc lol

[zero]

quick, hide the yachts!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-oligarchs-move-yachts-as-us-moves-to-hunt-down-and-freeze-assets.html

Quote

“This coming week, we will launch a multilateral Transatlantic task force to identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs – their yachts, their mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze under the law,” a White House’s recent tweet reads.

With that, some of Russia’s wealthiest are moving their boats to other locations, potentially with the hope they can avoid having those items seized.

I heard there's this lawless place off the Florida coast that would welcome the yachts. a mythical place, ruled by an orange wannabe tyrant. 

[Nebraska]

wish pastor pat had told us about this divine plan before we thought it was just a war over putin's attempt to control that particular region of the world

[joshuatxuk]

4 hours ago, zero said:

we're sorta crossing the thread streams here, but the gazillion dollar question is how to fix this. anyone old enough to remember the pre-internet days will recall that none of "this" seemed as bad back then. I've joked before on here that I think 2007 will be viewed as somewhat of a tipping point for modern society. that was the year the iphone came out, and also facebook started its assent as the social media king. those 2 factors - phones/cameras/internet in everyone's hands, plus having social media that can easily spread disinformation - have IMO had disastrous unintended consequences as far as normal people believing complete and utter bullshit. I know we can't stop the smartphone/social media machine from chugging along. education is a broad tool to fight disinfo, but that's more for the next generation, I think. the current generation of people who have fallen into this trap, all need to be somehow re-programmed, or unplugged from the MAGA Keanu Matrix world they inhabit.

It's a double-edge sword, the kicker is from all of the people getting sucked into the town crier spouting horseshit model that is now weaponized misinformation, conspiracy cults, etc. there's another segment who are hyper-aware of it and forging their own online and offline communities that are positive and aiming to make things better. we have more Nazis running for office than ever...we also have more SocDems running for office than ever too.

The the internet has ultimately killed the comfort of a baseline when it comes to media, the news, political spectrum, etc. It was flawed but it at least made it easier for people to have a common thread of fact and knowledge to pick at when debating and discussing things with their own personal views in mind. So now we are the this big sea change and the problem has been exponentially worse because media literacy, basic civics, and a rational normalized idea of what's right and wrong are all severely lacking, in the U.S. especially. The new generation is smart and more emphatic as a whole, but the extremes have also grown worst, i.e. people with sociopathic tendencies and shitty parents aren't just occasionally acting out in school shootings but actually feeding into broader toxic and regressive movements like incel culture and alt-right and fascist beliefs. It never ceases to amaze me see a smattering of kids on IG who are literally non-ironic monarchists and anti-democratic traditionalists or on the other side unironic CCP simps and auth-left apologists. I think things will generally settle down and get better but it's going to be a long-ride in the meantime. 

56 minutes ago, zero said:

quick, hide the yachts!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-oligarchs-move-yachts-as-us-moves-to-hunt-down-and-freeze-assets.html

I heard there's this lawless place off the Florida coast that would welcome the yachts. a mythical place, ruled by an orange wannabe tyrant. 

Some Ukrainian crew member disabled a Russian owned yacht in Spain a day or two ago, flooded it out IIRC. 

1 hour ago, Alcofribas said:

where’s Vicky Vale?

well goddamn it now I have "Batdance" stuck in my head

 

[ambermonk]

I have no news or fresh intel to contribute, nor do I have any friends or family in the region. But based on my limited understanding, this is all Emperor PalPutin being salty about the collapse of the USSR more than three decades ago, and the fact that his global influence is waning. But I've been seeing an unprecedented level of internet solidarity with Ukraine in all of this - be it on YouTube, Reddit...even in No Man's Sky multiplayer last weekend. It appears the majority of Russian people don't even want this conflict.

Hopefully Zelensky and his forces can hold the line in Kyiv and prevent it from getting captured. Putin and his regime have been in power in Moscow for more than two decades, and they've overstayed their welcome at this point.