LOST is happening in real life

[Guest fiznuthian]

Seemingly logical explanation from random seemingly knowledgeable Slashdot user (who knows):

 

First, Civilian radar depends on transponders, a small transmitted signal from the aircraft that is triggered by the Radar signal. This transponder responds with a "squawk code" (a 4 digit number assigned by ATC) along with some other basic information like altitude. Transponders make it unnecessary to get a "primary" return (i.e. they don't have to get the actual radar signal return) for the aircraft to show up. In fact, most civilian radar installations run with primary returns filtered out because they create visual noise for controllers, because weather and other noise shows up.

Second, the aircraft in question was at the far reaches of radar coverage. This tells me that a primary return was unlikely. In fact, the radar coverage for this aircraft was expected to end right about where it did. I"m told that radar coverage did not start back up for the next controller for a few min of flying time so a short time out of coverage was expected. They will pull the tapes and review for any primary returns, but I'm guessing this has already been done an it provided little information.

So, this tells me that something happened to the aircraft during the short time it was outside of coverage. What ever it was, it must have disrupted the flight controls and likely their communications ability, but it seems that the aircraft stayed largely in one piece, at least until it impacts the surface. If it was generally in one piece with say the vertical stabilizer disabled it could have flown a LONG way from the last position report.

It did NOT break up at altitude. Something rendered the aircraft uncontrollable. A loss of hydraulic pressure or power does this for a 777. Decompression at 35,000 feet can do significant damage to an aircraft's systems, plus it can incapacitate the flight crew in less than 10 seconds. Decompression can do this, without causing the aircraft to come apart in the air. Metal fatigue, fuel tank explosion, small explosive device, uncontained engine failure are all possible things that can cause decompression and all of these have happened before.

My guess is that they will find the aircraft tens even hundreds of miles away from the last known position, largely in one piece under water. The longer this takes, the further away from where it was last seen it will likely be. This is because they have found nothing yet. Much of an aircraft floats, so it sank in one major chunk with out spreading debris too far. This is not totally inconsistent with past aircraft crashes. KAL 007 flew nearly 20 min in a slow descending circle after being shot down. They will find it in a day or two.

[usagi]

finding wreckage could be impossible

 

this. this isn't the first time a plane has completely vanished (although perhaps not such a large flight with 200+ passengers). it usually means sudden failure > crash > total loss of life, unfortunately. I'm hoping people turn up alive but I doubt it.

[chenGOD]

So plane is still missing, but they know it veered off course:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0311/Malaysia-Airlines-Flight-370-A-pilot-suicide-mission

 

I'm hoping that it was actually beamed up by aliens and will appear again in mid-air over New York City.

[spunktronics]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-passengers-mobile-phones-074447403.html#FWiQIeB

[spunktronics]

mobile phones still ringing out?

[jules]

if you died in a car accident today and i call you tomorrow, your phone will ring.

[spunktronics]

Not if you're at the bottom of the ocean, straight to voicemail.

[Blir]

It flew into space. Radar only goes so far, losers.

[joshuatxuk]

 

Seemingly logical explanation from random seemingly knowledgeable Slashdot user (who knows):

 

 

 

First, Civilian radar depends on transponders, a small transmitted signal from the aircraft that is triggered by the Radar signal. This transponder responds with a "squawk code" (a 4 digit number assigned by ATC) along with some other basic information like altitude. Transponders make it unnecessary to get a "primary" return (i.e. they don't have to get the actual radar signal return) for the aircraft to show up. In fact, most civilian radar installations run with primary returns filtered out because they create visual noise for controllers, because weather and other noise shows up.

Second, the aircraft in question was at the far reaches of radar coverage. This tells me that a primary return was unlikely. In fact, the radar coverage for this aircraft was expected to end right about where it did. I"m told that radar coverage did not start back up for the next controller for a few min of flying time so a short time out of coverage was expected. They will pull the tapes and review for any primary returns, but I'm guessing this has already been done an it provided little information.

So, this tells me that something happened to the aircraft during the short time it was outside of coverage. What ever it was, it must have disrupted the flight controls and likely their communications ability, but it seems that the aircraft stayed largely in one piece, at least until it impacts the surface. If it was generally in one piece with say the vertical stabilizer disabled it could have flown a LONG way from the last position report.

It did NOT break up at altitude. Something rendered the aircraft uncontrollable. A loss of hydraulic pressure or power does this for a 777. Decompression at 35,000 feet can do significant damage to an aircraft's systems, plus it can incapacitate the flight crew in less than 10 seconds. Decompression can do this, without causing the aircraft to come apart in the air. Metal fatigue, fuel tank explosion, small explosive device, uncontained engine failure are all possible things that can cause decompression and all of these have happened before.

My guess is that they will find the aircraft tens even hundreds of miles away from the last known position, largely in one piece under water. The longer this takes, the further away from where it was last seen it will likely be. This is because they have found nothing yet. Much of an aircraft floats, so it sank in one major chunk with out spreading debris too far. This is not totally inconsistent with past aircraft crashes. KAL 007 flew nearly 20 min in a slow descending circle after being shot down. They will find it in a day or two.

 

 

Nice breakdown. I was thinking about KAL 007 as well, there's a lot of conspiracies surrounding that shootdown.

 

After the Air France 447 there's been discussion of black boxes transmitting data remotely and planes sending more detailed, constant data.

[joshuatxuk]

Also regarding the news, I've noticed that Ukrainian coverage died down and this has an insanely irresponsible amount of speculative reporting, but that's just the media being itself.

 

I mean, google news bumped down the CIA-Senate Commission spy accusation (it's actually not even on front page anymore) because more people were covering a fire in San Francisco and a the fucking Obama appearance on Between Two Ferns.

[chenGOD]

Don't you just google for news items you're interested in?

[Hugh Mughnus]

Also regarding the news, I've noticed that Ukrainian coverage died down and this has an insanely irresponsible amount of speculative reporting, but that's just the media being itself.

 

I mean, google news bumped down the CIA-Senate Commission spy accusation (it's actually not even on front page anymore) because more people were covering a fire in San Francisco and a the fucking Obama appearance on Between Two Ferns.

 

Yeah it seems strange to me too. My local newspaper has all ukraine issues on like page 47 of the paper. And the manhattan building collapse and this Malaysian plane are page one and two.. =/

[delet...]

I've been watching the coverage shrink on nbcnews.com. At last check Ukraine has been relegated to a tiny story square down the bottom right of their giant news page. So everything seems to be following the usual pattern when they want to back away from something to consider their options. Of course, maybe once the neonazi coup at gunpoint and various other embarrassing details have been flushed down the public's memory hole, they'll fire the coverage up again, it's not like stuff isn't likely to keep happening there for a while yet. Perhaps though there's less arse to cover if things don't go as plan when it's not as visible to the western public. Delicate balancing act this bull in a china shop thing.

[joshuatxuk]

Don't you just google for news items you're interested in?

 

Yes I do, though google news is a quick way for me to see who's reporting it and what angle they're using. BBC, NYT, Guardian are usually where I end up. I like wikipedia articles on news items like this as well.

 

I often get stuck on niche news stories - I've been fascinated with things like, the French intervention of Chad via militaryphotos.net for example.

[joshuatxuk]

China is saying they may have spotted crash on Sunday:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2014/mar/12/mh370-search-extended-into-andaman-sea-live-updates

[delet...]

Update to my post, obama meeting with ukraine coup appointee so they've bumped up the number of Ukraine stories on nbcnews by 3.

[Schlitze]

This planes flown out of the ozone layer and into space which explains why air traffic control can't see it anymore. I don't know but it looks like mid-flight cabin pressure must have dropped and pilots have become incapacitated on an ascent leaving the plane to fly out of the atmosphere. Has NASA even been notified or we still being distracted by non stories about guys with fake passports making big objects disappear off the face of the earth?

[modey]

omg they're going to mars

[delet...]

Mars or the bottom of the ocean, i don't know which journey scares me more.

[cear]

We could communicate

through advanced telepathy

from the bottom of the ocean

to the seven forty-seven.

[Hugh Mughnus]

 

We could communicate

through advanced telepathy

from the bottom of the ocean

to the seven seventy-seven-200ER.

 

[jules]

This planes flown out of the ozone layer and into space which explains why air traffic control can't see it anymore. I don't know but it looks like mid-flight cabin pressure must have dropped and pilots have become incapacitated on an ascent leaving the plane to fly out of the atmosphere. Has NASA even been notified or we still being distracted by non stories about guys with fake passports making big objects disappear off the face of the earth?

imagine if the pilot wanted to commit suicide and just floored it and pointed it at an aggressive enough ascent to climb steadily but not stall and then they all did pass out. wow.

 

I know that's unlikely but what a crazy thought.

[Schlitze]

It's the only explanation. He's either passed out on ascent or went on a suicide mission to the sun.

[jules]

the sun? what is it?

[YO303]

the sun is hell!