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UFO'S


pyramidpanes
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Foreword
Behind every man now alive stand thirty ghosts, for that is the ratio by 
which the dead outnumber the living. Since the dawn of time, roughly a hundred 
billion human beings have walked the planet Earth. 

Now this is an interesting number, for by a curious coincidence there are 
approximately a hundred billion stars in our local universe, the Milky Way. So 
for every man who has ever lived, in this Universe there shines a star. 

But every one of those stars is a sun, often far more brilliant and glorious 
than the small, nearby star we call the Sun. And many - perhaps most - of those 
alien suns have planets circling them. So almost certainly there is enough land in 
the sky to give every member of the human species, back to the first ape-man, 
his own private, world-sized heaven - or hell. 

How many of those potential heavens and hells are now inhabited, and by 
what manner of creatures, we have no way of guessing; the very nearest is a 
million times farther away than Mars or Venus, those still remote goals of the 
next generation. But the barriers of distance are crumbling; one day we shall 
meet our equals, or our masters, among the stars. 

Men have been slow to face this prospect; some still hope that it may 
never become reality. Increasing numbers, however, are asking: “Why have such 
meetings not occurred already, since we ourselves are about to venture into 
space?” 

Why not, indeed? Here is one possible answer to that very reasonable 
question. But please remember this is only a work of fiction. 

The truth, as always, will be far stranger.

 

- Arthur C. Clarke
2001: A Space Odyssey
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9 hours ago, Satans Little Helper said:
11 hours ago, very honest said:

i think you actually agree with me that it is possible that alien ai is in the solar system, which is equivalent to saying there's no reason to think there is not.

that's not equivalent, imo.

i think we have different understandings for what constitutes a "reason to think something." 

 

i think there is not a strong argument for the idea that there is no alien ai here. so i think there is no reason to think that. in other words, i do not think a weak argument is a reason to think something is true.


"no one has loudly announced their existence" is not a strong argument for "there is no alien ai here." so, in my mind, it is not a reason to think that. if you think that is a reason to think that, then ok.

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3 hours ago, very honest said:

i think we have different understandings for what constitutes a "reason to think something." 

 

i think there is not a strong argument for the idea that there is no alien ai here. so i think there is no reason to think that. in other words, i do not think a weak argument is a reason to think something is true.


"no one has loudly announced their existence" is not a strong argument for "there is no alien ai here." so, in my mind, it is not a reason to think that. if you think that is a reason to think that, then ok.

Sounds like "a reason to think something" is similar to picking a team. You're either on team A or B. Neither or both are no options? Or shades of grey? How about 90% possibility of AL and 10% possibility of no-AL? No reason to think no-AL could be an option? Zero? With what we currently know, you're 100% team AL? Impressive.

Wouldn't personally think that's a healthy approach, but if that floats your boat, more power to you.

One final thought. This thing about the badly named Fermi Paradox not being a paradox got me wondering. You do know the difference between a contradiction and a paradox, right? Because it sounds to me like you're treating a paradox like a contradiction (or some proof for non-AL). If you solve a contradiction it stops being a contradiction (or you disprove it). But that's not how a paradox works. A paradox is a paradox because of the appearance of a contradiction. Even if there is none. Or if there is some fallacy underneath it.

Or in terms of wiki:

Quote

A paradox is a logically self-contradictory statement or a statement that runs contrary to one's expectation.[1][2][3] It is a statement that, despite apparently valid reasoning from true premises, leads to a seemingly self-contradictory or a logically unacceptable conclusion.[4][5] A paradox usually involves contradictory-yet-interrelated elements that exist simultaneously and persist over time.[6][7][8]

The Fermi paradox is just that. A paradox. It's not meant as a proof for no-AL. It describes a difference between expectations and evidence/observations. I mean, things get weird real quick if it becomes impossible to acknowledge this difference is actually a thing.

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Posted (edited)

we established that the fermi paradox is not logically self-contradictory

 

you miss the point as though deliberately. i'm going to stop replying

Edited by very honest
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The only plausible argument against ET's that I've read is that the combinatorics of biochemistry are just too great for it to happen more than once within the universe's current age. 

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An average protein is a series of 300 amino acids. There are therefore 22³⁰⁰ possible variants. The visible universe contains only 10⁸⁰ elementary particles. In addition, our 22 amino acids are just a small selection of the 400 or so chemically possible. 400³⁰⁰ is a little more than 22³⁰⁰, but there is no physically relevant difference between the two numbers. Furthermore, ONE protein is not life, it requires a whole ecosystem of proteins that happen to do this magic together.

There are counter arguments in alternative protein compounds and other non earth-centric solutions. It also just doesn't make sense to me considering the amount of matter out there, and exoplanets in the goldilocks zone. Black holes are devouring eachother every 20 minutes or so out there, billions of LY all around us, but this little fluke of an atmosphere is unique? 

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                                           fermi national accelerator laboratory

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7 hours ago, chronical said:

It's strange that we live in a reality where our government unearths a bunch of UFO footage and nobody gives a shit. 

why would anyone give a shit? they're just planes and balloons and shit.

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On 7/5/2021 at 6:34 AM, very honest said:

we established that the fermi paradox is not logically self-contradictory

 

you miss the point as though deliberately. i'm going to stop replying

it's clearly a paradox.  statistically you'd think we'd be seeing alien shit.  in reality we ain't seeing it.  it's a paradox

5 hours ago, chim said:

The only plausible argument against ET's that I've read is that the combinatorics of biochemistry are just too great for it to happen more than once within the universe's current age. 

There are counter arguments in alternative protein compounds and other non earth-centric solutions. It also just doesn't make sense to me considering the amount of matter out there, and exoplanets in the goldilocks zone. Black holes are devouring eachother every 20 minutes or so out there, billions of LY all around us, but this little fluke of an atmosphere is unique? 

these types of arguments never convince me given the evolutionary nature of things at play.  what's really relevant is not the number of combinations of amino acid.  what's relevant is the number of chemical pathways and ways in which chemicals can combine and interact in ways leading towards the creation of -some- self-propagating or even just stable, chemical system.  once this pathway is found, the next pathways a more likely to be found.  it's not all or nothing, starting from nothing and reaching everything.  it's partial and iterative

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let's guess it's a dream reality

anything that can be dreamed can exist

including physics & biology

but reality isn't limited to physics and biology

there's a lot more to reality than that

a lot more we've never understood

and can't ever be explained with science

let's guess that consciousness is fundamental to the universe

and that this consciousness can dream up a physical world

that would mean that this world isn't necessarily limited to physics and biology

and that physics and biology are just one possibility of consciousness exploration

of a universal dream that is capable of fractalizing into all sorts of directions, not bound by any form

physics would just be a tiny fragment of infinite consciousness exploration

and other fragments of this infinite consciousness exploration can "spill" into the physical realm

and cause physically impossible occurrences

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