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Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)


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so on the last page i went over why i don't think trump is simply pretending to be putin's stooge, i listed some things that US defense intel would not allow to happen, even if they were doing a deep op. here's another (but with a twist): the bounties. if the president were a deep state pigeon, luring russian intel into a trap, would they let russia pay to kill US troops? 

info operations do have this dark side. sometimes you have to let your own troops go to their deaths because you cannot reveal a channel of information. like in world war 2, D-Day was a success largely thanks to a massive disinfo operation called Operation Fortitude, in which the allies successfully convinced the Nazis that the inevitable contintental landing attempt would take place at a location different than Normandy. a wartime scenario like this is an example in which it may unfortunately be the correct ethical choice to let some of your own troops go to their deaths, so as to not reveal an info operation.

but the bounties situation does not look like that kind of a scenario, in terms of the ethical calculation. i don't think the US would have trump ignore the bounties. 

here is my point though. the russian bounties were a major escalation, on russia's part. that's like killing US troops. you pay to have US troops killed, that is an escalation. it's genuinely striking that they did this, even with stooge trump momentarily in power. ONE THING THAT COULD EXPLAIN IT: this would be a test. if you are russia, and you are wondering what i've been wondering, "is trump a pigeon," this is how you could test it. see if he lets you get away with the bounties. that's something a genuinely compromised trump would let russia get away with, but it's not something a US intel informant trump would let russia get away with.

please note the qualifiers in my language indicating that these are speculative ideas.

Edited by very honest
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1 hour ago, zero said:

makes for a lot of good conspiracy fodder, but yeah, no way is donald somehow playing both sides or secretly obeying Putin's orders or other such fluff. my thought is that both Putin and US intel eye him with amusement - he's a loud, obnoxious, idiot with no values who can be easily persuaded. whoever dangles the biggest carrot in front of him he follows. plus he's incredibly readable, which makes his whole "greatest salesman in the world" shtick so perplexing...every good con man knows you don't go blurting everything out all the time so everyone knows all about you, you hold back and let the grift unfold as naturally as possible while blending in...

This

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He first went to the USSR in 1987 and when he came back, he spent $90,000+ on anti NATO/anti alliance ads in newspapers. After losing a billion dollars in personal, not corporate cash, he made some back by selling properties for much more than they are worth. To who? Oh...

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13 minutes ago, dingformung said:
1 hour ago, zero said:

makes for a lot of good conspiracy fodder, but yeah, no way is donald somehow playing both sides or secretly obeying Putin's orders or other such fluff. my thought is that both Putin and US intel eye him with amusement - he's a loud, obnoxious, idiot with no values who can be easily persuaded. whoever dangles the biggest carrot in front of him he follows. plus he's incredibly readable, which makes his whole "greatest salesman in the world" shtick so perplexing...every good con man knows you don't go blurting everything out all the time so everyone knows all about you, you hold back and let the grift unfold as naturally as possible while blending in...

This

we have cohen testifying that trump had him lie to congress about the timeframe of moscow tower negotiations. this IS trump breaking US law to cover up personal dealings with the russians. 

 

other suspicious things from volume 1 of the mueller report that make it appropriate to remain skeptical.. 

  • manafort continuously feeding polling data to russian spy kilimnik
  • trump lying to mueller about info received about wikileaks through stone
  • stone intimidating witnesses to cover up the russian/wikileaks communication channel
  • trump jr telling veselnitskaya "i love it" about russian gov providing hillary dirt, and veselnitskaya's response being to talk about the russian adoption policy enacted in response to US sanctions (hinting at sanction relief)
  • trump campaign did not report communications about election interference from russian government, including info given to papadopulous, stone, and jr

 

i see no reason to give trump the benefit of the doubt on this matter. the question is not whether or not trump is doing shady dealing with putin. we already know he is (the cohen negotiations example is very solid). so we know that he WOULD do this kind of thing, the question is what is the extent.

Edited by very honest
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8 minutes ago, Candiru said:

He first went to the USSR in 1987 and when he came back, he spent $90,000+ on anti NATO/anti alliance ads in newspapers. After losing a billion dollars in personal, not corporate cash, he made some back by selling properties for much more than they are worth. To who? Oh...

Oligarchs have been pretty globalised. The fall of the USSR must have meant paradise for ultra-rich Russian gangsters because they no longer had to bribe or undermine the CPSU or act as if they were enemies of American oligarchs.

Edited by dingformung
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15 minutes ago, dingformung said:

Oligarchs have been pretty globalised. The fall of the USSR must have meant paradise for ultra-rich Russian gangsters because they no longer had to bribe or undermine the CPSU or act as if they were enemies of American oligarchs.

True. I think they originally approached Trump to be an agent of influence. He was never formally a spy or completely aware of what he was being used for but they did come back and bail his ass out. And with the mob, there’s always a catch. 

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34 minutes ago, very honest said:

i see no reason to give trump the benefit of the doubt on this matter. the question is not whether or not trump is doing shady dealing with putin. we already know he is (the cohen negotiations example is very solid). so we know that he WOULD do this kind of thing, the question is what is the extent.

no doubt trump's dirty, but I really wonder how much of the illegal stuff he really is informed about or directly takes part in. we know donald loves real estate and wants tall buildings with his name on top. my guess is that he is presented with something basic, like an opportunity to profit from building a new skyscraper somewhere. donald says great let's do it, then it goes to don jr., Ivanka, or the lawyers to pass it along to the team, where it gets more and more messy and lo and behold oligarch money comes swirling in. the building probably doesn't ever get built and so they move on to the next thing, leaving a minefield of white collar crimes in their wake. meanwhile donald gets to rub shoulders with the other bosses who stroke his ego, and plays dumb when he's questioned on it, since he may not understand the specifics of what's going on (but understands there is something criminal going on)...classic mafiaoso game plan. again, just a guess. I can't see him knowing all about the money laundering & criminal operation side of things well enough to explain it to anyone. not that this excuses him, just my take on it.

the real question is what does Putin want exactly? 

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8 minutes ago, zero said:

no doubt trump's dirty, but I really wonder how much of the illegal stuff he really is informed about or directly takes part in. we know donald loves real estate and wants tall buildings with his name on top. my guess is that he is presented with something basic, like an opportunity to profit from building a new skyscraper somewhere. donald says great let's do it, then it goes to don jr., Ivanka, or the lawyers to pass it along to the team, where it gets more and more messy and lo and behold oligarch money comes swirling in. the building probably doesn't ever get built and so they move on to the next thing, leaving a minefield of white collar crimes in their wake. meanwhile donald gets to rub shoulders with the other bosses who stroke his ego, and plays dumb when he's questioned on it, since he may not understand the specifics of what's going on (but understands there is something criminal going on)...classic mafiaoso game plan. again, just a guess. I can't see him knowing all about the money laundering & criminal operation side of things well enough to explain it to anyone. not that this excuses him, just my take on it.

the real question is what does Putin want exactly? 

i think the money big picture basic balance sheet when doing any deal is at the forefront with trump. he's more or less always been that way w/his own buildings and deals. "what can I get out of the banks/tax break/labor unions.. work out the fine print later".  every deal is probably different though right? 

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10 minutes ago, zero said:

the real question is what does Putin want exactly?

In the end he probably wants the same as Trump and all of those alpha monkeys who aspire to be on top want, only that he is a highly educated and intelligent ex KGB agent that was educated in Eastern Germany along with Angela Merkel, so his needs of validation might be a bit more sophisticated than Trump's but not any less or more moral. Fuck all of them

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11 minutes ago, dingformung said:

In the end he probably wants the same as Trump and all of those alpha monkeys who aspire to be on top want, only that he is a highly educated and intelligent ex KGB agent that was educated in Eastern Germany along with Angela Merkel, so his needs of validation might be a bit more sophisticated than Trump's but not any less or more moral. Fuck all of them

Putin wants Russia to re-emerge as a major player. Soviet power running many smaller countries.restoring russia to its "proper place" at least that's the common narrative. that and making sure the oligarchs are happy and his alleged $200 billion or whatever is safe in all the various offshore accounts and stuff. so, i guess his agenda is protecting all the things important to the power structure he's a part of.

that doc "Putin's Way" is a good analysis but i'm guessing it's hard to know a person like putin from afar. 

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2 hours ago, zero said:

the real question is what does Putin want exactly? 

putin and much of the oligarchy he keeps loyal to him are dependent on oil money. so, to them, 2017 - 2021 with trump instead of hillary probably delayed a lot movement on the necessary, overdue and inevitable green energy revolution that stands to wipe them out.

but to answer your question, putin wants to weaken the US, along with other various military strategic goals, like the ones trump gave him. 

Edited by very honest
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1 hour ago, ignatius said:

Putin wants Russia to re-emerge as a major player. Soviet power running many smaller countries.restoring russia to its "proper place" at least that's the common narrative. that and making sure the oligarchs are happy and his alleged $200 billion or whatever is safe in all the various offshore accounts and stuff. so, i guess his agenda is protecting all the things important to the power structure he's a part of.

that doc "Putin's Way" is a good analysis but i'm guessing it's hard to know a person like putin from afar. 

Hmm, can't access PBS from where I am and I don't wanna pay 20 dollars to Amazon to watch "Putin's Way", to be honest. Yes, Russia still views itself as a global player with lots of influence while it can't even provide the same standards of fulfillment of basic needs as the Soviet Union could, quite pathetic for a modern country with the same or even increased access to resources as the Soviet Union had, if you ask me. Modern Russia has the same strength of economy as Italy, only that Italy is a major influence on the EU. Still, I'm more worried about the Russian alternatives to Putin than about Putin. And he will be replaced at some point. The alternatives to him might be even worse, from what I know. So fuck the Americans who sanction European countries for doing trade with Russia. Russia is a shit hole, like the US, but we cannot stop all trade with them, it won't ensure peace.

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Hmm, can't access PBS from where I am and I don't wanna pay 20 dollars to Amazon to watch "Putin's Way", to be honest. Yes, Russia still views itself as a global player with lots of influence while it can't even provide the same standards of fulfillment of basic needs as the Soviet Union could, quite pathetic for a modern country with the same or even increased access to resources as the Soviet Union had, if you ask me. Modern Russia has the same strength of economy as Italy, only that Italy is a major influence on the EU. Still, I'm more worried about the Russian alternatives to Putin than about Putin. And he will be replaced at some point. The alternatives to him might be even worse, from what I know. So fuck the Americans who sanction European countries for doing trade with Russia. Russia is a shit hole, like the US, but we cannot stop all trade with them, it won't ensure peace.

It’s on the torrents.

Or you could install that browser that has built in vpn and set the country to USA.

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, dingformung said:

Modern Russia has the same strength of economy as Italy,

Which is ludicrous, given Russia’s natural resources and education system. 

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10 hours ago, chenGOD said:

Which is ludicrous, given Russia’s natural resources and education system. 

Isn’t it because the oligarchs just take all the money for themselves? It’s speculated that Putin is the richest person in the world because of this. 

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11 hours ago, chenGOD said:

Which is ludicrous, given Russia’s natural resources and education system. 

The education system ranks same as Italy:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index

But agree. It's ludicrous what oligarchs do to that country. They could afford top healthcare and welfare for everyone but instead a couple of rich idiots build palaces for themselves, usually in extremely bad taste. Capitalism ??‍♂️

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37 minutes ago, Candiru said:

Isn’t it because the oligarchs just take all the money for themselves? It’s speculated that Putin is the richest person in the world because of this. 

Turns out kleptocracy isn't a very efficient system to run a country. Russia is a pretty hostile environment to run any kind of private business. You manage to get your business running well? Too bad, you made some "mistake" and now the government takes over your company, hands it over to their buddies who run the whole thing to the ground

But yeah, people are scared what would be the alternative to Putin and the Russian official "opposition" is a fake pro-Putin opposition that is just putting on a show. The real opposition is forced to operate underground. So, there's not much hope that things are going to change by people just voting differently.

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37 minutes ago, dingformung said:

But agree. It's ludicrous what oligarchs do to that country. They could afford top healthcare and welfare for everyone but instead a couple of rich idiots build palaces for themselves, usually in extremely bad taste. Capitalism ??‍♂️

Some parallels to Mexico, on paper this country is actually realtively wealthy, but absurd level of inequality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mexico

The current president here ran on cutting corruption, and while i dont think he personally is corrupt (he has the right intentions) the way corruption can erode all levels of society is a problem that one person cannot solve, at least not in the short term like he promises.

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1 hour ago, dingformung said:

But agree. It's ludicrous what oligarchs do to that country. They could afford top healthcare and welfare for everyone but instead a couple of rich idiots build palaces for themselves, usually in extremely bad taste. Capitalism 

Why blame capitalism? Blame corruption and a system of kleptocracy. The implementation of capitalism (or capitalist structures) matters far more than the theory. Not knowing much about Russia's economic policies, I would hazard that they are even more extreme than the US in terms of socialism for corporations (headed by oligarchs) and capitalism for the rest.

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1 hour ago, scumtron said:

I would recommend The Road to Unfreedom by Timothy Snyder. A good but chilling read. The premise is that Russia has limited potential for economic growth, and with this knowledge, the main strategy is to try to destabilize other countries. Examples from Ukraine, Brexit and the US election.

Thanks for the recommendation - I'll read it, but the reviews don't make it seem as if the author discusses Russia's economy much, rather all about Putin's fascination with a Russian philosopher.

I would hope that a Yale history professor doesn't think that Russia has limited potential for economic growth. Natural resources, a lot of really smart people (Russian and Eastern European people are disproportionately represented in hacking because they have limited economic opportunities thanks to the corruption and kleptocracy that exist in many of those countries), beautiful countryside: Russia really could be a top economic superpower if it weren't for the greed and corruption of those few in power.

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2 hours ago, scumtron said:

I would recommend The Road to Unfreedom by Timothy Snyder. A good but chilling read. The premise is that Russia has limited potential for economic growth, and with this knowledge, the main strategy is to try to destabilize other countries. Examples from Ukraine, Brexit and the US election.

Thank you. Maybe the growth paradigm is the wrong way in the first place. Why not grow in some areas (benus), and degrow in others with social and ecological justice in mind and then work towards keeping a satisfactory status quo? Doesn't work within a "free" market, though (a market free to exploit). Shitpiss world economy

2 hours ago, markedone said:

Some parallels to Mexico, on paper this country is actually realtively wealthy, but absurd level of inequality. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Mexico

The current president here ran on cutting corruption, and while i dont think he personally is corrupt (he has the right intentions) the way corruption can erode all levels of society is a problem that one person cannot solve, at least not in the short term like he promises.

I heard that in Mexico prisoners don't get any food but are dependant on family members bringing them food or other prisoners giving it to them. An extreme example of an inequal society. Interestingly it's such societies that are the most violent. In countries where everyone is poor there is less violence than in countries where there are also rich people. South Africa is a perfect example. It's richer than the neighbouring Botsuana but the rate of killings is higher, because there is more economic inequality.

55 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

Why blame capitalism? Blame corruption and a system of kleptocracy.

Because accumulation of capital is non-elected power. Capitalism leads to kleptocracy, even if it's contained through a functioning state of law and functional laws. But laws that function as a containment of unbridled capital accumulation can be eroded by existing capital accumulations because they can be used to influence the law and make it dysfunctional in terms of containment of capital accumulation. Capital accumulations should be used for the common good and a capitalist market logic doesn't function on the principle of common good but on mere maximisation of profits.

Edited by dingformung
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