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1 hour ago, caze said:

Iran's retaliation seems to have been a bit of a damp squib. They damaged some planes and killed some Iraqi soldiers. Doubt Trump will strike back again if that's all they've got.

...apparently the earlier reports of Iraqi casualties was incorrect, which is nice.

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Posted (edited)

i wouldn't be surprised if Iran is just trying to save face for now maybe.. perhaps they'll do something more substantial down the road after tempers chill. 

i wouldn't be surprised if trump properties somewhere get attacked. a hotel or something. i think iran is aware that he's a bit crazy and would quite possibly follow up on his twitter threats. 

Edit: actually thinking about it more.. who knows.. we may see a spree of attacks in various forms. and all the talking heads are calling this the start of the "escalation ladder" and that we need to win that rise up the ladder. 

off. wtf. a shitty mess. 

Edited by ignatius

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Fuck me. Idk where my sanity is right now.

I knew this asshole would try to drag us into another war close to the next election cycle. Frankly I hope he gets a ballistic missile up his ass and up to the stratosphere, I don't even care anymore. I'm sick of rich, powerful assholes always getting their way at everyone else's expense.

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i wouldn't be so sure about trump's reaction... do not underestimate his ability to be a man baby at all times. he knows he can't downplay loss of US life.

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but there hasn't been any loss of US life in these attacks?

even though the Iranians are claiming otherwise...

 

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/08/irans-assault-on-us-bases-in-iraq-might-satisfy-both-sides

Quote

In their immediate aftermath, the attacks appear to have been carefully calibrated to avoid US casualties – fired at bases that were already on high alert.

Iran’s foreign minister has said the strikes have concluded and characterised them as self-defence within the boundaries of international law – not the first shots in a war.

Trump, in his first comments after the strikes, also sought to play them down.

If Trump’s assessment of the damage holds, Wednesday’s strikes might be an opportunity for both sides to de-escalate without losing face. Iran will be able to say it took violent revenge for Suleimani’s death and pivot to a campaign of proxy warfare – with which it feels more comfortable, against a vastly more powerful adversary – and diplomatic pressure to eject American forces from Iraq.

The US can also step back, shrugging off the retaliation as being of no significant consequence. That is the best-case scenario, but it rests on two risky premises: that more than a dozen missiles struck bases hosting US military personnel without substantial damage or casualties; and that the White House will resist any urge to respond.

 

 

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every US base in iraq is on high alert for a while now though. 

apparently the missiles can be detected within 30 seconds of being fired. the bases have all been fortified recently to better withstand missile attacks like these. the early warning systems are good. it gives soldiers 3-4 minutes to go for cover. it takes 7 minutes or so for the missiles to arrive at the targets. they're all prepared/briefed/trained to deal w/this kind of shit. 

still keeping fingers crossed we collectively avert catastrophe. 

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On 5/8/2019 at 10:38 AM, darreichungsform said:

And Iran war gets more likely everyday.

 

On 5/8/2019 at 8:32 PM, goDel said:

Who's going to support the US (besides Israel and some Arab states)? I don't think the EU will support this. Or China. Or Russia. To name a few.

Also, does it even make sense in the context of 2020? Trump is an opportunist. He's thinking in 2020-mode. Threatening and posturing towards Iran is good for his supporters (in the US, and in Israel/arab states). They like him behaving like an asshole. But actually starting a war, I don't think that'll sit well with them.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my take is this is Trump being a bully. The dog is barking but it's not going to bite.

 

On 5/9/2019 at 9:00 AM, darreichungsform said:

Well, Israel is already bombing Iranians in Syria and has a huge influence on US politics. Saudi Arabia is bombing Iranian affiliated groups in Yemen. And Europe is totally spineless when it comes to the US. They might not actively participate but provide aerial reconnaissance and such

It doesn't have to make sense, there is a lot of ideology involved plus interests of the military-industrial complex. And it doesn't have to be 2020. Right now a war doesn't seem too likely but with some preparation the political climate could have shifted further than you would think in a few years. Also, it's not just about Trump. American government loves war to bits, almost doesn't matter which president is in power

 

@goDel

I was right. Say it. Say: "You were right". *whips out dick and starts massaging glans"

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Quote

Europe is totally spineless when it comes to the US. They might not actively participate but provide aerial reconnaissance and such

The attack was done via the relay station Ramstein (like all attacks in the Middle East and north Africa).

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That Ukrainian Intl Airlines plane - likely shot down as well right?

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Posted (edited)

Wreckage shows the telltale holes of wolfram shrapnel from your typical AA missile. Looks like a misfire by antsy Iranian military. 

Edited by chim

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Posted (edited)

it had just taken off from tehran airport. it was on fire when it was going down.

here's the first tweet mentioning "ukrainian airlines," time-stamped 3:22am UTC time.

first reports of iranian missiles fired were around 11pm UTC time. between 11:30 and 12am UTC, reports of their impacts started coming out, impacts at Erbil air force base and the Ain Al Asad base.

there were reports of a second round of missiles fired from iran, around 12am UTC time.

i was watching tweetdeck.twitter.com during this. i was watching for reports of impacts from this second round. i did not notice any from reputable sources, but i may have missed it.

 

flight ps752 took off from tehran at 2:42 am UTC time and lost contact a couple minutes later. if iran had launched anti-air missiles at 12am, i don't think they would still be flying around at 2:42am.

 

there were reports of iran fighter jets taking off at 1:08am UTC

 

iranian FM announced they were done at 2:32am UTC

trump announces "all is well" at 2:45am UTC

 

i'm also seeing people saying that photos of wreckage seem to indicate shrapnel damage.

 

there's the results of some research into @StephenG's question. TLDR: unclear, but not unlikely it was inadvertently taken down by iranian air defense.

Edited by very honest

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At 8,000 ft and disappears off radar? Seems likely, but whether or not it was intentional is a different story, as there were Iranians on board.

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10 hours ago, caze said:

 

 

It's not the US's fault the region is filled with numerous violent fascist groups of various stripes, which prevented the stabilisation of the country. 

Oil is not the reason behind any of this, the US does not rely of the region's oil as it's one of the world's biggest oil exporters itself (and they only have about 15% of Iraq's output tied to US companies in the most recent contracts, Russian companies have about the same, the UK a bit more; Iraq keeps 25% of everything produced, plus the taxes on all profits). There is a sense in which it's important to the US and the global economy to keep Iraqi oil production going, this isn't to line the pockets of elites though, it's important to everyone and especially important to the Iraqis as it funds their economic development. Even after the US military leaves Iraq a whole host of countries, including from the US, will continue to be awarded contracts for developing oil fields and building out processing infrastructure, this is essential for Iraq because they're at capacity and require significant infrastructure development (especially when it comes to gas), something they don't have the know how or the funds to do themselves.

It might not be solely the fault of the US that the region is in a state of utter disrepair, but their foreign policy in the region has been extremely disruptive. 
 

The US is a net importer of oil. Iraq makes up about 5% of total imports. Saudi Arabia about 9%. If Iraq’s production slows down, and if Saudi Arabia is affected by the conflict at all, that’s another pressure point on US supply of imports. Expect oil prices to rise. 
 

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I wanted to visit Iran this year. Seems to be a bad idea

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10 hours ago, ignatius said:

every US base in iraq is on high alert for a while now though. 

apparently the missiles can be detected within 30 seconds of being fired. the bases have all been fortified recently to better withstand missile attacks like these. the early warning systems are good. it gives soldiers 3-4 minutes to go for cover. it takes 7 minutes or so for the missiles to arrive at the targets. they're all prepared/briefed/trained to deal w/this kind of shit. 

still keeping fingers crossed we collectively avert catastrophe. 

Yeah the anti-rocket tech available now is incredible.

The Ukraine Airliner crash could very well be a coincidence but that said...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655#Shootdown_of_Flight_655

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this guy should chime in on twitter about the current president

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12 minutes ago, caze said:

Nope, they still are:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

For the week ending 01/03/20 (thousands barrels per day):

Total Imports - 8,843

Total Exports - 8,233

Net Imports - 610

Where it really gets interesting though is in the break down of crude oil vs products.

For the same week, the US had a net import of 3,666 (thousands/BPD) of crude oil, but they had an import of -3,056 in products.

Now sure, the US has reduced its reliance on imports so there is almost no deficit, and they do have large reserves (largest by country according to one report), but if they have to start going through those reserves (as they are prepared to do) as result of this idiocy, again, expect oil prices to rise. The US doesn't win here, not in any scenario.

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You're just cherry picking, if you'd picked the previous week there was a net export amount. The trend is pretty clear, stop splitting hairs. The point is that the US military presence in Iraq has nothing to do with making some elites rich. The only way it relates to oil is in the sense that oil in general is important to the global economy, this has little to do with elites though and more to do with growth, jobs, etc. It's very important to Iraq itself, being a normal functioning member of the international community, using oil to develop and diversify it's economy.

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31 minutes ago, caze said:

You're just cherry picking, if you'd picked the previous week there was a net export amount. The trend is pretty clear, stop splitting hairs. The point is that the US military presence in Iraq has nothing to do with making some elites rich. The only way it relates to oil is in the sense that oil in general is important to the global economy, this has little to do with elites though and more to do with growth, jobs, etc. It's very important to Iraq itself, being a normal functioning member of the international community, using oil to develop and diversify it's economy.

 

The points are as follows: a) the US is still very dependent on crude oil imports - which is clear if you look at the link I provided from the EIA. b) Iraq is a member of OPEC which has a serious capacity to disrupt US imports of crude oil, and c) it is about the elites in the sense that the oil companies desire stability, because stability means predictable forecasts. It's not a conspiracy though, if others are implying that. The US military is there to provide that stability, not for any noble cause.

Iraq is not diversifying its economy through oil (>90% of revenues for the country), and there is a real possibility that the country will fall victim to the resource curse.

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