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Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson


bendish
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5 minutes ago, goDel said:

The most important indicator for whether or not I'm on the right track, is the amount of bullshit that will be thrown into public from the government with regard to the impact of a No Deal exit. If the message appears truthful...

It sounds like you've not been paying any attention at all to what's been going on here. The brexit side of this debate, Boris included and most of his cabinet as well (Rabb, Gove, Patel, and Barclay in particular) have done nothing but spread lies and bullshit about the consequences and realities of brexit from the very beginning, especially with regard to no deal brexit (which from before they referendum they were all saying had no chance of happening... it's now the most likely scenario). Not sure why you think they're all of a sudden going to change their tune now?

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I take that with "from the beginning" you mean from the beginning of the campaign in, when was that.. 2014?

For my argument's sake, lets start from the beginning of where Johnson is PM. A week ago. (which is what i meant, btw) Simply because he's now in a position where he can't run away from his responsibilities. As opposed to the campaign period, for instance. Again, he appears a complete opportunist.

Why a sudden change of tune? First, I don't think it will be sudden. Second, the coming period will be crucial in defining the new reality after October. Crucial in the sense of being opposed to the Brexit campaign where you had multiple (fake) notions of a post-brexit reality, the coming months should see a convergence to a single post-october reality. Brexit or non-Brexit. And this is how I interpret Johnsons current strategy: working towards a convergence. Especially on the side of the hard brexiteers.

Again though, this is pure speculation. I understand people looking at this from a completely different perspective and drawing completely different conclusions. Please don't take this in a "I can piss further than you" kinda way. Just giving my perspective. No need to call me an idiot or anything. Just agree to disagree, and get on with life. This is out of our control.

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From the start of the referendum campaign, after the referendum and during the negotiations, after the negotiations finished until May was turfed out, and then during the leadership campaign, and now that he's PM; it's been the same lies and bluster throughout, and it's not going to stop any time soon. I'm not calling you an idiot, but unless you've been following this closely (including the appearances on the radio and current affairs shows on the TV by these people) I guess you won't be fully aware just how much dissembling is going on.

His current strategy of brinkmanship with the EU and no-deal blockers in parliament requires him to keep up the charade of a post-brexit fantasy of plentiful trade deals and economic success, honesty from him at this point would make no sense at all. It's not a strategy that's going to work though, the EU won't blink, so either at the last minute he does a 180 (which would probably mean getting another extension), or we're heading towards no-deal (because even if there's a no-confidence motion there's not enough time to do anything about it any more; barring an extremely unlikely 'unity government' being formed - basically impossible as long as Corbyn is in charge of Labour, if it goes to a General Election there's not enough time before 31st October).

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I'm not denying that huge amounts of BS have come (and keep on coming) from BJ's mouth. The only point I was trying to make was following the reporting in the Guardian, he's put a team (and priority) on dealing with a no-deal Brexit. And in this aspect, I don't think he is bullshitting around. Regardless of what he says in public. A no-deal brexit is a serious option at this point. There's no denying that. And that requires a whole lot of preparations if that does happen in October. In this aspect he's walking the talk, so to speak. My own take on that is that this increases the odds of no no-deal brexit. 

I don't think his strategy is to get the EU to move again, btw. Or rather, I don't believe he expects the EU to move again, even though he has to play that role from a political perspective. (for his hard brexiteer buddies)

It's all charades. I think we can agree that BJ is all about playing charades.

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He was voted in by the Tory members on the back of his Brexit stance - so of course he has put a pro-brexit team in place and ramped up the no-deal prep.  People would be calling him a bullshitter if he had stuck so pro-eu members in place and waved a white flag at brussels. 

Agreed he seems to be "walking the walk" so far - even if it is a silly walk, whilst playing charades.

The PM job since the referendum is a poisoned chalice though - you are going to piss off a huge number of people regardless of your persuasion and what you do, so just do what you think is right (as TM did all along, but look where that got her)

 

 

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Presumably the parliamentary maths make most speculation purely academic? He just doesn't have the mandate to do anything, and I'm not sure he could get away with sitting on his hands until we automatically crash out. Are there enough Tory MPs that would be OK with a no deal Brexit that Johnson could survive a confidence vote before that happens?

I really don't think he'll last to the deadline. Maybe that's just wishful thinking

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50 minutes ago, Amen Warrior said:

Presumably the parliamentary maths make most speculation purely academic? He just doesn't have the mandate to do anything, and I'm not sure he could get away with sitting on his hands until we automatically crash out. Are there enough Tory MPs that would be OK with a no deal Brexit that Johnson could survive a confidence vote before that happens?

 I really don't think he'll last to the deadline. Maybe that's just wishful thinking

There definitely is a decent chance that there'll be a confidence vote, and that he'll lose it. The problem is that parliament is now in recess until September, so the confidence vote can't happen until after then, and given the various time frames given to different processes (14 day period to try and seek a govt, 25 days minimum to campaign, time to form a govt and begin new parliament session after election, plus a few days here and there for other procedural reasons) there isn't enough time before the 31st October leave date. The earliest we could've had an election if a confidence vote was called on the last day of the current session was the 24th October, giving a week to get a new parliament up and running, but Corbyn refused to back Jo Swinson's call for one, so it'll be at least two days later than that now (if a vote is called on Sep 3rd, the vote won't be until the 4th), and even then the rules are that the outgoing PM gets to set the date for the election, so Boris could even pick a date after the 31st. This would be made even more complicated if the result of an election didn't lead to a majority, which is probably more likely than not.

So with all that taken into account, the only way to prevent a no deal exit at this point is either for Boris to do a 180, or for another government to be formed in the 14 day window after a confidence vote loss. I think the idea that there could be unity government formed while Corbyn is still in power is fanciful though, he wants an election and has no problem with a no-deal scenario, which would give a Corbyn government even more room to implement his terrible policies.

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Can we zoom out for a bit and note that two public shoolboys, getting into a lifelong dick measuring rivalry, has bought an entire country to its knees.

It is time to bring out the fucking guillotines

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3 hours ago, caze said:

There definitely is a decent chance that there'll be a confidence vote, and that he'll lose it. The problem is that parliament is now in recess until September, so the confidence vote can't happen until after then, and given the various time frames given to different processes (14 day period to try and seek a govt, 25 days minimum to campaign, time to form a govt and begin new parliament session after election, plus a few days here and there for other procedural reasons) there isn't enough time before the 31st October leave date. The earliest we could've had an election if a confidence vote was called on the last day of the current session was the 24th October, giving a week to get a new parliament up and running, but Corbyn refused to back Jo Swinson's call for one, so it'll be at least two days later than that now (if a vote is called on Sep 3rd, the vote won't be until the 4th), and even then the rules are that the outgoing PM gets to set the date for the election, so Boris could even pick a date after the 31st. This would be made even more complicated if the result of an election didn't lead to a majority, which is probably more likely than not.

So with all that taken into account, the only way to prevent a no deal exit at this point is either for Boris to do a 180, or for another government to be formed in the 14 day window after a confidence vote loss. I think the idea that there could be unity government formed while Corbyn is still in power is fanciful though, he wants an election and has no problem with a no-deal scenario, which would give a Corbyn government even more room to implement his terrible policies.

Doesn't yet another brextension take care of all the time constraints though? From what I remember the EU were willing to grant much longer. Is there anything that says they can't unilaterally grant an extension if Johnson loses a confidence vote days before the deadline?

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Another extension? Only if the Brits are clear about what happens afterwards by making an actual choice (which they probably wont...). The most important reason there won't be another extension, is that there's no reason for it from the EU-point of view. There won't be any meaningful renegotiations. And giving another extension only gives room for the idea there's still room to negotiate. There simply isn't. Take the deal. Or remain. Or a no deal Brexit.

The only reason for an extension is if the Brits make a clear choice (take deal or hard brexit), but need more time to prepare the country for the change. Any other scenario, doesn't really do anything good. There have been plenty of extensions already for the Brits to sort their internal bickering out. The Brits are making this unnecessarily complicated. The options are simple. Make a choice and inform us before October 31st. A vote of non-confidence won't change a thing. Who's going to say there won't be another when the next extension finishes. It's as silly as doing another referendum. By redoing previous steps, you basically signal it really doesn't matter anyways.

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1 hour ago, Amen Warrior said:

Doesn't yet another brextension take care of all the time constraints though? From what I remember the EU were willing to grant much longer. Is there anything that says they can't unilaterally grant an extension if Johnson loses a confidence vote days before the deadline?

Boris has said there will be no extension, it's out on the 31st one way or another. Which is why I mentioned a 180. The EU can't unilaterally grant an extension, he has to ask for one. Having said that, even if the EU agreed to go back to the negotiating table and get rid of the backstop, and managed to thrash out a new deal, which then managed to pass a vote in parliament, there almost certainly wouldn't be time to pass the legislation to implement it before the deadline. So an extension would be required either way really. Maybe Boris would be able to sell a "technical" extension to implement an agreement, as long as there was legal certainty about leaving, but he's not going to be able to keep his hard-brexit crew onside with any other kind of extension.

I think it's pretty unlikely he'll do a 180 though, because betraying the brexiteers will just bring the brexit party back into the equation which would split the conservative vote in a GE and leave him as an embarrassing side-note in British history (he may have no choice about that regardless). I only see it happening if he can somehow get an agreed exit sorted which would prevent a GE until 2022, but that would have to be done over the heads of the DUP and the hard core brexit nutters, and so would require Labour support, so not very likely either. 

The more scenarios I run through in my head, the more inevitable no-deal starts to look.

7 minutes ago, bendish said:

Ireland. Just wait. 

huh?

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1 minute ago, caze said:

Boris has said there will be no extension, it's out on the 31st one way or another. Which is why I mentioned a 180. The EU can't unilaterally grant an extension, he has to ask for one. Having said that, even if the EU agreed to go back to the negotiating table and get rid of the backstop, and managed to thrash out a new deal, which then managed to pass a vote in parliament, there almost certainly wouldn't be time to pass the legislation to implement it before the deadline. So an extension would be required either way really. Maybe Boris would be able to sell a "technical" extension to implement an agreement, as long as there was legal certainty about leaving, but he's not going to be able to keep his hard-brexit crew onside with any other kind of extension.

I think it's pretty unlikely he'll do a 180 though, because betraying the brexiteers will just bring the brexit party back into the equation which would split the conservative vote in a GE and leave him as an embarrassing side-note in British history (he may have no choice about that regardless). I only see it happening if he can somehow get an agreed exit sorted which would prevent a GE until 2022, but that would have to be done over the heads of the DUP and the hard core brexit nutters, and so would require Labour support, so not very likely either. 

The more scenarios I run through in my head, the more inevitable no-deal starts to look.

huh?

I’m referring to Ireland’s issues probably being the most sensitive and dangerous aspect of this. Throwing the backstop out as Raab suggests is going to be hotspot number one way beyond any economics issues for the rest of the UK.

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yeah, definitely. it would even prevent the UK from signing a trade deal with the US in a no-deal situation. the Irish lobby has bipartisan support in the US congress, and they're not going to pass any trade deal that fucks with the good friday agreement.

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43 minutes ago, goDel said:

It's as silly as doing another referendum

Another referendum wouldn't have been silly, as long as it was tied to an actual concrete choice, rather than the nebulous and non-binding waste of time the last one was.

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2 minutes ago, goDel said:

The hard-brexiteers always seemed to be in lala-land when it comes to the back-stop.

It's funny, they go on and on about how simple the technical solutions to the problem are, but if that were really the case they should have no problem with the backstop, as it would never need to be used.

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Nebolous and non-binding waste of time? haha yeah, all this nonsense about Brexit because of a "nebolous and non-binding" waste of time. 

You know, I kinda agree and all. But the reality just seems radically different. This nonsense referendum brought the UK close to a no-deal Brexit. Believe it or not. Regardless of the "quality" of it. In an ideal world stuff like that would matter perhaps. But we're not living in that world.

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What I mean is that the referendum didn't set out what people were actually voting for, even after the referendum bill was passed it wasn't debated or campaigned for in any meaningful manner. It was amazingly content free, and had no legal weight behind it. All it did was provide a very vague political mandate to the government to try and do something or other vaguely brexity. The problem is that Britain isn't set up for referendums, it has no written constitution, has no formal procedures involved in designing or running them, every one is designed on an ad-hoc basis with it's own unique piece of legislation, and ultimately parliament is sovereign, not the people. So unless the vote in a referendum is aligned with parliament's view on things (which it wasn't in this case), or tied to a very specific set of outcomes with a thorough piece of legislation (again, not in this case), it was never going to work. It would be possible to fix the second of those two issues in a second referendum though, so it's not an impossible problem to overcome. 

Britain is in dire need of political reform, from the ground up. It's not going to happen any time soon though, so this nonsense is bound to continue for the foreseeable future. All attempts at doing so in recent years have been half-arsed at best, house of lords reform, devolution, alternative-vote, what's needed is a written constitution of some form, proper devolution (including for England), get rid of the house of lords, and removing the queen (definitely not going to happen). Failure to reform will just lead to the continuing disintegration of the UK, which might actually be preferable in the long-term. An independent Scotland, and re-unified Ireland would perform quite nicely on the world stage, leaving an isolated Southern Britain to degenerate further on it's own for a few decades until it finally came to it's senses and threw off the various anachronisms that keep it mired in mediocrity.

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