Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

[Amen Warrior]

2 hours ago, caze said:

Boris has said there will be no extension, it's out on the 31st one way or another. Which is why I mentioned a 180. The EU can't unilaterally grant an extension, he has to ask for one. Having said that, even if the EU agreed to go back to the negotiating table and get rid of the backstop, and managed to thrash out a new deal, which then managed to pass a vote in parliament, there almost certainly wouldn't be time to pass the legislation to implement it before the deadline. So an extension would be required either way really. Maybe Boris would be able to sell a "technical" extension to implement an agreement, as long as there was legal certainty about leaving, but he's not going to be able to keep his hard-brexit crew onside with any other kind of extension.

I think it's pretty unlikely he'll do a 180 though, because betraying the brexiteers will just bring the brexit party back into the equation which would split the conservative vote in a GE and leave him as an embarrassing side-note in British history (he may have no choice about that regardless). I only see it happening if he can somehow get an agreed exit sorted which would prevent a GE until 2022, but that would have to be done over the heads of the DUP and the hard core brexit nutters, and so would require Labour support, so not very likely either. 

The more scenarios I run through in my head, the more inevitable no-deal starts to look.

huh?

I was talking about another extension specifically in a no confidence scenario. We have to trust Boris will ask for an extension in the interim period?  This is why I was asking about unilateral extensions...it doesn't seems right that the clock would remain ticking while there's no-one in the UK behind the wheel

[ignatius]

john oliver doing his thing.. 

 

[B1000]

2 hours ago, ignatius said:

john oliver doing his thing.. 

 

 

if you're an American that seriously watches John Oliver (the  unfunny lefty shill) - then seek mental help ASAP

 

Edited July 30, 2019 by B1000

[ignatius]

1 hour ago, B1000 said:

 

if you're an American that seriously watches John Oliver (the  unfunny lefty shill) - then seek mental help ASAP

 

er.. why? i like the funny shit and the investigative type of stories about healthcare debt and stuff like that.. he's no worse than the lot really.. watching any late night talk show or weekly politically slanted funny show is nothing to seek mental health over.  i think oliver and back in the day jon stewart gave it to the left  pretty often and are more than lefty shills.  but was anything in that boris johnson bit inaccurate or unfunny? i found it funny as an outsider but i'm not going to go research boris johnson now to investigate john oliver reporting. i had a laugh i thought the thread would appreciate the post. 

[bitchroast]

12 hours ago, B1000 said:

God bless Boris Johnson. Cry some moar, @bendish

Not long till Brexit now, thank god. 

call me crazy, there's something about this call out that seems like B1000 is intending to provoke and incite reactions. 

[goDel]

12 hours ago, caze said:

What I mean is that the referendum didn't set out what people were actually voting for, even after the referendum bill was passed it wasn't debated or campaigned for in any meaningful manner. It was amazingly content free, and had no legal weight behind it. All it did was provide a very vague political mandate to the government to try and do something or other vaguely brexity. The problem is that Britain isn't set up for referendums, it has no written constitution, has no formal procedures involved in designing or running them, every one is designed on an ad-hoc basis with it's own unique piece of legislation, and ultimately parliament is sovereign, not the people. So unless the vote in a referendum is aligned with parliament's view on things (which it wasn't in this case), or tied to a very specific set of outcomes with a thorough piece of legislation (again, not in this case), it was never going to work. It would be possible to fix the second of those two issues in a second referendum though, so it's not an impossible problem to overcome. 

Britain is in dire need of political reform, from the ground up. It's not going to happen any time soon though, so this nonsense is bound to continue for the foreseeable future. All attempts at doing so in recent years have been half-arsed at best, house of lords reform, devolution, alternative-vote, what's needed is a written constitution of some form, proper devolution (including for England), get rid of the house of lords, and removing the queen (definitely not going to happen). Failure to reform will just lead to the continuing disintegration of the UK, which might actually be preferable in the long-term. An independent Scotland, and re-unified Ireland would perform quite nicely on the world stage, leaving an isolated Southern Britain to degenerate further on it's own for a few decades until it finally came to it's senses and threw off the various anachronisms that keep it mired in mediocrity.

I get the impression we speak vastly different languages here. I already assumed you were poking holes in the referendum from a, as far as I'm concerned, more technical point of view. And this is where I already agreed with you. Even if you are more nuanced and precise in your criticisms, the notion the referendum was problematic in and of itself is not new or controversial. The point I was trying to make was that I get the impression you downplay the political reality that, despite of all these technical imperfections, the political reality is still real and with potentially huge consequences (hard brexit). So even if everything you say is largely true and correct - which i do believe btw - , that still doesn't mean the current situation is like a bad dream.

This remembers me of some experiences I had with "Remain"-fanatics who in a way seem to be in a state of denial. As if a hard Brexit is some cynical joke by a couple of trolls in government which will never happen. Even though I can sympathise with their position and technically agree. As Farage really does make a convincing troll. And Boris Johnson similarly.

The Remain-fanatics think they have a clear idea about what is reasonable. But the thing is, their logic is a faulty one. Even if I technically agree with their position. Simply because I don't think it's a cynical joke of some trolls to do a Brexit. And this is where the political reality comes into play. A significant part of the population voted for exit. And we can have endless debates about the technicalities of this vote. But that doesn't change the fact that many people - although perhaps not a majority - do still think the UK is better off outside the EU. It's certainly not the case that a large majority are fanatical remainers. Pro-EU is still something dirty in the UK.

And this is the point where I'm hopeful, btw. With Boris Johnson as PM, a No-Deal Brexit finally becomes a potential reality instead of a cynical joke. Which is, imo, a necessary step in the process to a healthy post-October UK. It's time for the Hard-Brexiteers to do their business: prepare the country for a hard Brexit.

This is where reason will prevail, I believe. One way or the other. First of, I don't believe in the "cynical joke" theory. Hard brexiteers are to be taken seriously. Which they haven't until now, imo. Second, if you accept their position wasn't a joke or some sort of cynical trolling, but a serious one, the *only* way to change their position is by taking the no-deal brexit seriously. Which - if the reporting is correct - is what currently is happening.

So, as far as I'm concerned, all the 'reasonable' Remainers should shut up for a minute. Even though I generally agree with their position, their political gamesmanship has been awful and counter productive. Simply because from their point of view, a hard brexit was not and could not be taken seriously. (A fair generalisation, imo) They have to learn to accept that the hard brexiteers weren't joking or playing games (on some level - even though they really acted like a bunch of trolls), but seriously believe the UK can get away with a no deal exit. Only in thinking this through and trying to plan this transition out, they might change their position. Might. That won't be happening overnight. But three months of hard working and planning this no deal exit might just suffice. I really don't see another way.

No new referendum or vote of confidence, or extension will change the current political landscape or will move things forward, imo. Preparing for a no deal exit will.

Anyways, I'm repeating myself. I guess I'm not in a position to convince anyone around here. But that doesn't really matter anyways. I just hope Boris will properly execute his no deal exit plans. And in the process, maybe, the hard brexiteers come to the 'brilliant' idea that remaining might be the best option after all.

Call it naive. And you're probably right.

[caze]

3 hours ago, goDel said:

The point I was trying to make was that I get the impression you downplay the political reality that, despite of all these technical imperfections, the political reality is still real and with potentially huge consequences (hard brexit). So even if everything you say is largely true and correct - which i do believe btw - , that still doesn't mean the current situation is like a bad dream.

I don't know how you came to the conclusion that I'm downplaying the reality. I'm not at all, just pointing out how ridiculous it is that such a poorly thought out process which has been triggered by the internal wranglings of the conservative party can have such a disastrous effect on the country.

I also think you have it backwards when it comes to remainers not taking no-deal seriously, it was the brexiteers who pretended it was never going to happen, they constantly talked about how easy the negotiations were going to be and only the other day Boris said it was a 'million to one' chance. From the very start of the debate the remain side has been clear on the actual possibilities, either we end up with a very close relationship with the EU (the withdrawal agreement or something similar) - which is a waste of time really, dilutes the benefits of the being in the EU, with none of the benefits of being outside of it, might as well just remain; or some form of hard or no deal brexit, with some benefits to free trade (though unlikely to make up the loss in trade with the EU and other EU-negotiated trade deals) but at a massive cost to the economy and political stability. The middle ground between this, what the brexiteers were promising from the beginning, with all the benefits of the being in the EU with none of the downsides was always a complete non-starter, utter fantasy, and this has been clear to most remainers from the start.

The reality may be finally dawning on the brexiteers now that the EU isn't going to blink, though I think they're still mostly in denial, and even if it is it's probably too late to do anything about it.

 

[goDel]

40 minutes ago, caze said:

The middle ground between this, what the brexiteers were promising from the beginning, with all the benefits of the being in the EU with none of the downsides was always a complete non-starter, utter fantasy, and this has been clear to most remainers from the start.

That's the thing right? This is exactly why the 'reasonable' people didn't take the brexiteers seriously. Even if the 'reasonable' remainers et al. did take the no deal scenario seriously, they didn't take the people (brexiteers) seriously, if that makes sense. There's a difference there. 

Even if I can agree with the 'logic', the political outcome of treating their position as "utter fantasy" was that there couldnt/can't be a political platform from which you build towards some kind of agreement. It's just not possible. That's the political reality I'm referring to. Which is ironically similar to what you see in the US, btw. Both sides of the discussion treat the other as living in "utter fantasy".

40 minutes ago, caze said:

The reality may be finally dawning on the brexiteers now that the EU isn't going to blink, though I think they're still mostly in denial, and even if it is it's probably too late to do anything about it.

Yes. And my argument is that the current process might be the only road to 'salvation'. Not another referendum. Or any other scenario. No, let them work out their precious no deal exit strategy. They have 3 months to be brilliant and save the UK. You and I have roughly similar ideas on the possibilities of that exercise. I can only repeat this is a necessary step in the process which hasn't been taken before. Simply because the "reasonable" people considered this a non-starter and "utter fantasy".

Edited July 30, 2019 by goDel

[bendish]

Okay what happens with a crash out? 

Short and long term?

[beerwolf]

Just bouncing in on my space hopper to say after reading the above posts I'm wisely staying well clear of this thread (because I'm gonna look like a right muppet lol)

*bounces out*

[goDel]

All trade agreements with the EU involved end immediately (food, medicine, etc). So everything will grind to an immediate halt. Short term agreements have to be made. Imports (and export) require more red tape. And thus, take more time. Structural trade agreements will take years. Until then lots can go wrong. And because this is bigger than just finished products, all industries in UK requiring imports to make products will grind to a halt as well. So there's a def chain reaction in the broader economy. In a way it's similar to the financial crash of 2008 where the entire financial market came to a stand-still and banks fell left and right. This time, it's not the banks you should worry about, but all companies/businesses dealing in some way with the EU.

Edited July 30, 2019 by goDel

[Soloman Tump]

48 minutes ago, bendish said:

Okay what happens with a crash out? 

Short and long term?

 

what @goDelsays maybe, who knows.

Remainers will tell you its all doom and gloom, leavers will tell you everything will be fine....

Short term there would be shortages of certain imported foods, of course.  Maybe including "HP Sauce" (yes, Houses of Parliament Sauce) which is made in Netherlands

After a while UK based producers will see the benefits (I know a number of sole traders / small businesses who are starting to prepare to ramp up production in order to meet potential demands, but the uncertainty of what is happening is stalling investment and it sucks for them)

Supply of tropical foodstuff like Bananas, coconuts etc shouldn't be affected unless they get to us via mainland europe... (not sure? Citation needed)

Quite happy to be able to buy seasonal "local grown" fruit and veg to be honest, fresh corn on the cob still in the husks are amazing, as is asparagus etc.

I really don't see why places like Aldi have to import all of their apples from spain and wrap them in plastic.  Not enough UK stock? Maybe we turn it all into cider!

 

Answer is nobody knows to be honest - if only they had settled on a plan last year then we may already be someway into knowing what the next step is.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Soloman Tump

[goDel]

Case in point:

Quote

Boris Johnson has been urged to “stop playing Russian roulette” with the sheep and lamb industry by threatening a no-deal Brexit ahead of a visit to Wales, where he will promise farming has a bright future.

The new prime minister said he would “always back Britain’s great farmers” and promised to “make sure that Brexit works for them”.

“That means scrapping the common agricultural policy and signing new trade deals – our amazing food and farming sector will be ready and waiting to continue selling ever more not just here but around the world,” he said. “Once we leave the EU on 31 October, we will have a historic opportunity to introduce new schemes to support farming – and we will make sure that farmers get a better deal.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/stop-playing-russian-roulette-sheep-industry-johnson-told

[goDel]

Case in point 2:

Quote

A few years after Theresa May looked a nurse dead in the eye and said“There’s no magic money tree”, here they are spending £100m on a leaflet explaining how best to eat your dog. These leaflets will have the difficult job of assuring everyone that everything is going to be fine while also containing enough information to convince the EU that we’re taking it seriously and are prepared to go through with it. They have to tell people “This is what you wanted, isn’t it great” but also “Here are some steps you can take so you don’t die in November”.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/30/boris-johnson-no-deal-preparation-leaflets-advice-brexit

[chenGOD]

2 hours ago, bendish said:

Okay what happens with a crash out? 

Short and long term?

If you're a currency speculator, great time to short the pound.

Short term - UK gets fucked in the ass hard and deep. Long term, who knows.

[azatoth]

One thing is sure, a significant percentage will still keep voting Tory even after the UK is in ruins.

[iococoi]

[goDel]

17 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

If you're a currency speculator, great time to short the pound.

Wouldn't wait with this too long. The pound is already moving downwards... if you're gonna short, do it quick!

[chenGOD]

Oh yeah for sure - but that's why it's short term. Pound still has a ways to go down though.

[Enthusiast]

A great time to order from Boomkat and Amazon UK

[caze]

On 7/30/2019 at 2:53 PM, goDel said:

That's the thing right? This is exactly why the 'reasonable' people didn't take the brexiteers seriously. Even if the 'reasonable' remainers et al. did take the no deal scenario seriously, they didn't take the people (brexiteers) seriously, if that makes sense. There's a difference there. 

Even if I can agree with the 'logic', the political outcome of treating their position as "utter fantasy" was that there couldnt/can't be a political platform from which you build towards some kind of agreement. It's just not possible. That's the political reality I'm referring to. Which is ironically similar to what you see in the US, btw. Both sides of the discussion treat the other as living in "utter fantasy".

Yes. And my argument is that the current process might be the only road to 'salvation'. Not another referendum. Or any other scenario. No, let them work out their precious no deal exit strategy. They have 3 months to be brilliant and save the UK. You and I have roughly similar ideas on the possibilities of that exercise. I can only repeat this is a necessary step in the process which hasn't been taken before. Simply because the "reasonable" people considered this a non-starter and "utter fantasy".

you seem to be conflating no-deal with the magical agreement that the brexiteers were looking for, that's what 'utter fantasy' refers to, not do-deal. there's nothing fantastical about the remain position, it's just the status quo.

[goDel]

57 minutes ago, caze said:

you seem to be conflating no-deal with the magical agreement that the brexiteers were looking for, that's what 'utter fantasy' refers to, not do-deal. there's nothing fantastical about the remain position, it's just the status quo.

we're speaking different languages. i don't think you've got any idea whatsoever what i'm talking about. it's ok.

[caze]

53 minutes ago, goDel said:

we're speaking different languages. i don't think you've got any idea whatsoever what i'm talking about. it's ok.

you don't seem to be getting what I'm saying at all either. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[hello spiral]

[Soloman Tump]

49 minutes ago, hello spiral said:

Politics