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BCM

Brexisn't

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Yeah so I think it's safe to assume we ain't leaving. ECJ judge saying we can unilaterally call it off. May's government in contempt of parliament so now has to publish the full legal advice on the whole thing, which will undoubtedly advise that leaving is a very bad idea indeed. Either they'll just call the whole thing off or it'll be a second referendum and everyone will vote to remain because we're so thoroughly sick of the whole charade.

 

Terribly sorry for all the bother Europe.

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Is Europe going to let them back in, though? Sounds like the EU's ultimatum was "don't let the door hit your ass on the way out"

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Yeah so I think it's safe to assume we ain't leaving. ECJ judge saying we can unilaterally call it off. May's government in contempt of parliament so now has to publish the full legal advice on the whole thing, which will undoubtedly advise that leaving is a very bad idea indeed. Either they'll just call the whole thing off or it'll be a second referendum and everyone will vote to remain because we're so thoroughly sick of the whole charade.

 

Terribly sorry for all the bother Europe.

You had us Irish boarder dwellers well worried for a minute, thanks for the heads up.

 

But honestly though, I'm afraid I don't think rolling this shit back is as easy as you are saying.

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It is, we're allowed to unilaterally withdraw Article 50. Lots of people were saying we'd need all 27 member states to agree to let us cancel, but it now appears that's (probably) not the case. Was going to post a link but it's too much hassle on my phone - Google "Brexit can be stopped" if you're interested.

Edited by BCM

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yeah. there'll be a european court ruling soon, but a preliminary opinion by one of the judges says it can be unilaterally withdrawn, the EU or other individual nations can't do anything to prevent that. it would take an act of parliament though, and needs to be done before march 29th. so if there ends up being a general election the timing could get very tight.

Edited by caze

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It is, we're allowed to unilaterally withdraw Article 50. Lots of people were saying we'd need all 27 member states to agree to let us cancel, but it now appears that's (probably) not the case. Was going to post a link but it's too much hassle on my phone - Google "Brexit can be stopped" if you're interested.

Sorry, I meant in terms of the British public accepting a second referendum to go ahead, and then counting on the turnout to reverse it. I know it was a very close vote on the first referendum, but I feel the leave voters will be emboldened if there was a second referendum. On the other hand, all the potential young voters that weren't arsed voting the last time might be bothered this time. Would love to see it. This whole thing is a fucking disaster.

 

EU jus fukn wan u bak bbz.

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Apparently we could probably get an extension on the March 29th leave date until July or whatever, which would give us time for another referendum. Pretty certain Remain would win this time, by a bigger margin than Leave did previously.

Edited by BCM

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what a mess.. we'll see how it all ends

 

everyone will vote to remain because we're so thoroughly sick of the whole charade.

just hope you're right on this, whole of europe seems to be escalating towards a new tipping point every day now.

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Corbyn will get in

Right wingers will make a new party and ditch the tories

 

If another referendum there will b terrorism on massive scale

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Will there fuck...most people will be extremely relieved and the few perpetually angry 50 year old men who aren't will probably die of a mass heart attack anyway.

 

I think an awful lot of Leave voters have changed their minds.

 

The staunch leavers are mostly made up of right wing idiots, who are less in number than the papers would have everyone believe.

Edited by BCM

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Extending the March 29th deadline would require the agreement of the EU 26, I think they'd probably allow it, but maybe only at the last minute, I've heard a few of their people asked about that and they don't want to commit to anything before the UK decides what they're doing with the current agreement. I suppose the UK could withdraw the Article 50 notification with the notion of having another referendum in the future and possibly re-triggering it, effectively extending the deadline.

 

It does look like a lot of people have changed their minds, polling on a 2nd referendum is 60%ish now, most of them will surely be remain. A lot of the original leave votes were protest votes, not really ideologically driven to leaving the EU, and a lot of them probably won't bother this time or will have switched sides. Brexit fatigue will affect the leave side more than remain I think, even many hardcore brexit folks seem to be wavering now, like this guy: https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2018/12/deal-or-no-deal.html

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^

absolutely

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Equally important, isn't Brexinnit a better thread title?

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That would imply Brexit is still going to happen though innit.

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ok then! I should finally getting around to getting my british passport!! 

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Blates not gonna happen, but I want the uncertainty to continue for just a bit longer, till I exchange on a flat that I'm in the process of buying, cos it's way under the asking price, cos way less people are buying, cos of uncertainty caused by this total shambles

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What outcome would be best for IDM? If the UK does leave and Corbyn gets in, he might be able to nationalise Planet Mu and usher in a new golden era of beeps and squonks

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That would imply Brexit is still going to happen though innit.

 

Possibly? Apparently, my Canadianism handicaps my 'innit' comprehension. Carry on.

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Corbyn's into like, World Music or some shit. Bet he hates electronic music. SNP are probably the most IDM party.

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he probably only listens to billie bragg and ewan maccoll

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A lot of the original leave votes were protest votes, not really ideologically driven to leaving the EU, 

 

That describes 99% of my old friends and relatives in my hometown. It's just a bubbling pot of anger in "the provinces", partly just a social thing at feeling ignored by London, partly justified anger at economic subservience to the SE, partly a semi-nativist lashing-out against a gradual feeling of a loss of identity - which I think is a bit silly and naive, but in the most part I honestly don't think it's racist.

 

In a parallel universe where June 2016 was actually a general election under PR, then those votes would all have gone to some populist a la Macron. 

 

So a lot of people just wanted to stick it to the London poshos instead of literally leaving the EU. That bodes well for Remaining but also means that, even if Article 50 is revoked, there will have been an utter failure to calm the seething anger that underlay it. It'll eventually resurface, just as it has been in France recently

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huh? populist? macron? wut?!?

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the french presidential system, with the fractured nature of the parties there and the runoff thing, means that the president never has any popular support, people only vote for the winner to vote against the other guy. macron only really courted the votes of the middle class, the level of populism is pretty low there, people are either conservative or socialist. melenchon and le pen were the only populists.

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I thought there was quite a populist whiff about En Marche... Definitely centrist, but still a strong sense of new blood replacing a moribund establishment, kinda thing, no?

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yes, he did win over votes from the mainstream parties, but only really from people who were already in the centre but who traditionally voted socialist or republican. melenchon and le pen were trying to court working class voters from both sides, thankfully they both failed miserably. there doesn't seem to be much appetite in France for populism.

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