2020 US Election

[Salvatorin]

12 minutes ago, Candiru said:

Zeffirelli has been going to those meetings down by the docks. 

under the queensboro bridge for 15 bucks a pop

[zlemflolia]

1 hour ago, very honest said:

i'd be interested to know where zeff and salv get their political info

i get my political info from my gut and from a healthy distaste for cops and all other varieties of fascists, like centrist liberals

[YangYing]

2 minutes ago, Zeffolia said:

and all other varieties of fascists, like centrist liberals

[Nebraska]

9 hours ago, caze said:

uh, she's... uh.... staying in?

 

what momentum is she talking about? she's been losing since this began. does she mean she needs money to keep losing? if she really cared about anything she said, she would drop out and endorse bernie: after all, she herself said she shares similar policies with bernie she just thinks she would make a better president.

but i have a feel she'll follow suit and endorse biden as instructed by her superpac 

[auxien]

Warren is an infallible goddess too good for this nation and she obviously is ordained by a Higher Being to stay in the race and save us all. Let us pray to her.

 

but okay for real she might be waiting it out hoping something wild happens between now and the convention to one or both of them. They’re very old men, don’t forget, both on the decline. (not that she’s a spring chicken herself, but she’s obviously more energetic and seemingly in better health than either Biden or Bernie)

even if not i think she’ll endorse the winner (almost guaranteed to be Biden) and it doesn’t really matter anyway. after last night Bernie ain’t got much of a shot at all y’all, sorry.

[Salvatorin]

1 hour ago, Candiru said:

So, tell us the real shit. 

disclaimer: i am an idiot, but okay let's do this. *takes off mickey mouse gloves*

to quote a wise poster who i shall not name out of respect, 

Quote

dc is built to hinder any kind of progress. bernie is seen as a trump figure here. the dems don't like him, the republicans don't like him, the media hates him. even if he wins he already lost.

i've started to feel a sense of dread about what seems to me will be the inevitable pop of the 'optimism' bubble that has been inflated by recent gains in county and state politics for progressives. despite approving, as a matter of principle, in the kind of no-nonsense goal-oriented ethos and strategy that some of the 'insurgent left' have adopted (note- i'm talking about methods, not necessarily their particular agenda). i think they have deluded themselves into thinking that this 'wave' can possibly face up against the established order in federal politics. i think they've duped themselves into believing in the possibility of electoral reform on a federal level, and with that the implementation of any of the large-scale programs they are promising.

i've started to bristle at the tenor of Bernie's campaign with its teary-eyed sentimentalism and assurances of change. there are very clear differences, but i see parallels to Obama's 2008 presidential campaign—this time playing out in a field with a widened 'overton window'. except the economy has not entered a crisis (yet) and as much as the demand for change on the ground from the electorate may seem real at town halls and such, in the broader public (as far as i can perceive), the pressure to meaningfully influence DC politics simply does not exist yet. i fundamentally agree with 'refusing to play ball', but the progressives do not have the leverage they are claiming, therefore, — "if Bernie wins he has already lost"— and the implications for US politics at large are not immediately clear to me.

caveat: UK politics and US politics are not analogous. with that said, it seems entirely plausible, if not likely that a full-scale demoralization of the progressive movement will happen within the democratic party somewhat akin to what happened recently with Corbyn and the Labour Party. now, if i seem to be repeating verbatim the 'warnings' issued out ad nauseam by centrist media sources, it is because i am. but for me it is not because i believe that moderation and incrementalism are meaningful in the slightest because i fundamentally regard the priorities of those who preach it to be those of unimaginative dullards who have disturbingly low awareness or are in outright denial about what is at stake in the near and long-term future— for this country and for the future of humanity. i can't help but envision a spectacular crash and burn of the Sanders campaign and associated movements resulting in their relatively non-radical ideas being hard-wiped from the noopolitical sphere, at least in the immediate future.

now here is where i start to feel like i am falling off the deep end. it is entirely possible that the next couple of paragraphs will come off as if i have become some sort of wingnut or am just generally confused and misled.

i fully recognize my interpretations may seem outright irrational, paranoid, 'doomer', 'blackpilled', (<--fuck these gay ass terms) and that i am embracing eschatological thinking (which i have a tendency toward)— but i think that a complete destruction of our nebulous concepts of 'left' and 'right' are close on the horizon. this is because i believe we have been, in the USA and many other countries, a kind of slow-burn crisis for a very long time and no matter how much each camp wants to define itself as unique, all responses are reactionary — from nu-lefty utopianism-lite to nu-conservative nationalism to the overwhelming, suffocating technocratic placations of the center. none of these positions are poised to properly address the issues that face us now, but more importantly, they aren't suited to deal with the pressures that are to come.

there isn't one clear beginning to the crisis nor is there any one defining feature of it, but when i attempt to use realpolitik to analyze our situation, i have trouble seeing a future that doesn't feature a hard turn towards strong central government and authoritarian tendency at the federal level. the 'pressures' i mentioned that aren't quite there yet— they seem highly probable to arise, eventually, if not soon. and the kind of politics we will see evolve in response will not fit easily into any one quadrant, but will most likely coalesce into the hard authoritarian right. but even that will be confusing because the policies of Sanders will no longer belong to the left once the pressure increases. borders are more likely to become hard. fortress europe, fortress america, fortress any nation-state that recognizes its need to basically imprison its citizens — economic participants kept captive to keep functioning the economic model we have grown into.

i say all this to essentially state what will easily come off as some 'edgy teenage bullshit': this election does not matter. progressive politics have become myopic and limited in their scale and whether or not we tidy up our country to try and elevate our infrastructures to some scandinavian ideals (which won't happen), the real fucking problems are global, and our politics are like molasses in their response to issues, and no one we put in office can face up against the political machine in DC that is categorically opposed to any kind of large-scale restructuring. for now. Bernie is not FDR and we are not yet in an analogous moment. But the pressure is coming, and instead of rationally planning, this country and many, many others have sat on their thumbs for decades, and change is going to come — but not because we have the ability to envision a better world. it will come out of necessity as the complex systems we rely on get close to their breaking point. and it won't be fun for anyone.

i almost welcome another four years of trump because i relish seeing chinks form in the armor of american imperialism. but there is no better solution, no better state actor. except maybe xi jinping lol. fuck the democrats. fuck the republicans. fuck bernie, trump, all politicians. we need internationalism more than we have ever needed before. we need immediate, decisive action on a global scale. unfortunately, it's just not going to happen.

so keep enjoying the shameless pageantry that is this whole political spectacle if you want, but know that this won't continue for that much longer. savor it i guess. things are not going to be casual in the coming decades. this has been another salv PSA, thank you for your attention, bye.

[Brisbot]

Dammit just because I said they all should drop out and endorse Biden, doesn't mean they SHOULD have.

Anyway voting in Texas is awkward. It's an open primary so you can see which party everyone is voting for, no one says anything, and you're in the line for like 15 minutes, seeing every single person ahead of you pick up the Republican ballet or slip it into the box, until it's your turn you damn democrat, lol. One other person picked up the democrat ballet while I was there, probably two in several dozen people.

 

9 hours ago, goDel said:

 

Age and race divide Biden and Sanders in Texas

Vote share for each candidate by race and age in Texas, according to preliminary exit polls

GROUP	SHARE	BIDEN	BLOOMBERG	GABBARD	SANDERS	WARREN
Black 18-29	2%	30%	4%	8%	45%	5%
Black 30-44	3	49	8	—	30	9
Black 45-64	9	68	12	—	12	4
Black 65+	6	62	26	—	7	4
White 18-29	5	9	3	—	69	12
White 30-44	10	13	4	1	48	23
White 45-64	17	34	12	1	24	14
White 65+	12	44	19	1	13	11
Latino 18-29	8	10	13	—	66	5
Latino 30-44	8	14	10	2	55	9
Latino 45-64	9	36	20	1	30	7
Latino 65+	6	36	24	—	31	2
All other	4	22	10	—	43	14

Only showing candidates who haven’t dropped out.

SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH

 

Yep a more noticeable divide between age and not so much race. Crazy how steep that drop off is actually. Bernie is like 10-15 years before his time, and in politics that isn't  a good thing when you're 80, lol. 

[Candiru]

19 minutes ago, Salvatorin said:

disclaimer: i am an idiot, but okay let's do this. *takes off mickey mouse gloves*

to quote a wise poster who i shall not name out of respect, 

i've started to feel a sense of dread about what seems to me will be the inevitable pop of the 'optimism' bubble that has been inflated by recent gains in county and state politics for progressives. despite approving, as a matter of principle, in the kind of no-nonsense goal-oriented ethos and strategy that some of the 'insurgent left' have adopted (note- i'm talking about methods, not necessarily their particular agenda). i think they have deluded themselves into thinking that this 'wave' can possibly face up against the established order in federal politics. i think they've duped themselves into believing in the possibility of electoral reform on a federal level, and with that the implementation of any of the large-scale programs they are promising.

i've started to bristle at the tenor of Bernie's campaign with its teary-eyed sentimentalism and assurances of change. there are very clear differences, but i see parallels to Obama's 2008 presidential campaign—this time playing out in a field with a widened 'overton window'. except the economy has not entered a crisis (yet) and as much as the demand for change on the ground from the electorate may seem real at town halls and such, in the broader public (as far as i can perceive), the pressure to meaningfully influence DC politics simply does not exist yet. i fundamentally agree with 'refusing to play ball', but the progressives do not have the leverage they are claiming, therefore, — "if Bernie wins he has already lost"— and the implications for US politics at large are not immediately clear to me.

caveat: UK politics and US politics are not analogous. with that said, it seems entirely plausible, if not likely that a full-scale demoralization of the progressive movement will happen within the democratic party somewhat akin to what happened recently with Corbyn and the Labour Party. now, if i seem to be repeating verbatim the 'warnings' issued out ad nauseam by centrist media sources, it is because i am. but for me it is not because i believe that moderation and incrementalism are meaningful in the slightest because i fundamentally regard the priorities of those who preach it to be those of unimaginative dullards who have disturbingly low awareness or are in outright denial about what is at stake in the near and long-term future— for this country and for the future of humanity. i can't help but envision a spectacular crash and burn of the Sanders campaign and associated movements resulting in their relatively non-radical ideas being hard-wiped from the noopolitical sphere, at least in the immediate future.

now here is where i start to feel like i am falling off the deep end. it is entirely possible that the next couple of paragraphs will come off as if i have become some sort of wingnut or am just generally confused and misled.

i fully recognize my interpretations may seem outright irrational, paranoid, 'doomer', 'blackpilled', (<--fuck these gay ass terms) and that i am embracing eschatological thinking (which i have a tendency toward)— but i think that a complete destruction of our nebulous concepts of 'left' and 'right' are close on the horizon. this is because i believe we have been, in the USA and many other countries, a kind of slow-burn crisis for a very long time and no matter how much each camp wants to define itself as unique, all responses are reactionary — from nu-lefty utopianism-lite to nu-conservative nationalism to the overwhelming, suffocating technocratic placations of the center. none of these positions are poised to properly address the issues that face us now, but more importantly, they aren't suited to deal with the pressures that are to come.

there isn't one clear beginning to the crisis nor is there any one defining feature of it, but when i attempt to use realpolitik to analyze our situation, i have trouble seeing a future that doesn't feature a hard turn towards strong central government and authoritarian tendency at the federal level. the 'pressures' i mentioned that aren't quite there yet— they seem highly probable to arise, eventually, if not soon. and the kind of politics we will see evolve in response will not fit easily into any one quadrant, but will most likely coalesce into the hard authoritarian right. but even that will be confusing because the policies of Sanders will no longer belong to the left once the pressure increases. borders are more likely to become hard. fortress europe, fortress america, fortress any nation-state that recognizes its need to basically imprison its citizens — economic participants kept captive to keep functioning the economic model we have grown into.

i say all this to essentially state what will easily come off as some 'edgy teenage bullshit': this election does not matter. progressive politics have become myopic and limited in their scale and whether or not we tidy up our country to try and elevate our infrastructures to some scandinavian ideals (which won't happen), the real fucking problems are global, and our politics are like molasses in their response to issues, and no one we put in office can face up against the political machine in DC that is categorically opposed to any kind of large-scale restructuring. for now. Bernie is not FDR and we are not yet in an analogous moment. But the pressure is coming, and instead of rationally planning, this country and many, many others have sat on their thumbs for decades, and change is going to come — but not because we have the ability to envision a better world. it will come out of necessity as the complex systems we rely on get close to their breaking point. and it won't be fun for anyone.

i almost welcome another four years of trump because i relish seeing chinks form in the armor of american imperialism. but there is no better solution, no better state actor. except maybe xi jinping lol. fuck the democrats. fuck the republicans. fuck bernie, trump, all politicians. we need internationalism more than we have ever needed before. we need immediate, decisive action on a global scale. unfortunately, it's just not going to happen.

so keep enjoying the shameless pageantry that is this whole political spectacle if you want, but know that this won't continue for that much longer. savor it i guess. things are not going to be casual in the coming decades. this has been another salv PSA, thank you for your attention, bye.

I agree with a lot of that, but I do think getting Trump out of office matters, internationally. 

[dingformung]

27 minutes ago, Salvatorin said:

this election does not matter.

this statement is false.

[Rubin Farr]

Sanders is unelectable IMO, yes Biden stutters and is from 1900 yanking yank.  And the creepy backrubs.  But he can win the South, and Sanders literally comes off as Larry David's parody of him.  Make the best of a bad situation, get Harris as VP and we have a chance to save this country.

[Brisbot]

5 minutes ago, Rubin Farr said:

Sanders is unelectable IMO, yes Biden stutters and is from 1900 yanking yank.  And the creepy backrubs.  But he can win the South, and Sanders literally comes off as Larry David's parody of him.  Make the best of a bad situation, get Harris as VP and we have a chance to save this country.

lol. Save is a big word. Maybe more just "We have a chance as a country to stagnate for another decade". That sounds more accurate to me. At least we don't look like fools with Trump as president. So during the general it's either a vote to look like fools, or a vote for stagnation. Yippie, i'm excited to get out and vote for mediocrity.

Btw, If Hillary didn't win, I doubt Biden will either. Even less of a chance as the country is becoming more populist over time.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Brisbot

[Salvatorin]

fuck you rubin farr

[Salvatorin]

[joshuatxuk]

57 minutes ago, auxien said:

even if not i think she’ll endorse the winner (almost guaranteed to be Biden) and it doesn’t really matter anyway. after last night Bernie ain’t got much of a shot at all y’all, sorry.

The debates will be telling. They chipped at Bloomberg's appeal a lot. Biden isn't going to be able to wing it when he has to actually go against Bernie head to head.

I agree this push behind Biden is making the overall race far more up in the air and it gets back to the ultimate question of strategy: Bernie bringing in new and/or previously disillusioned voters or Biden bringing in moderate/independents, anti-Trump conservatives, etc. Biden's centrist push is empty and deflated but against Trump it's a clear "lesser of two evils." Sanders on the other hand offers starkly opposite policies and rhetoric against both Trump and the establishment in general. He could easily bring in the more casual Trump supporters as well from rural and working class background especially. 

[joshuatxuk]

28 minutes ago, Brisbot said:

Btw, If Hillary didn't win, I doubt Biden will either. Even less of a chance as the country is becoming more populist over time.

Populist in rhetoric and authoritarian in policy, which of course is a recipe for fascism and the dictatorships that emerge to prop them up.

HRC won the popular by nearly 3 million votes. Gore by 1 million in 2000. Trump could potentially get elected and still lose the popular by 5+ million votes because of the electoral college. He's not swaying the general public, he's dissuading more and more of them and firming up his base. 50% of the population not voting at all works to their advantage. Next term he and the GOP will further disenfranchise more and more if they can via policies and working the system to their advantage.

Edited March 4, 2020 by joshuatxuk

[goDel]

 

5 minutes ago, joshuatxuk said:

Sanders on the other hand offers starkly opposite policies and rhetoric against both Trump and the establishment in general. He could easily bring in the more casual Trump supporters as well from rural and working class background especially. 

You sure? Biden basically won the red states which were on last Tuesday. Biden carrying those red states looks to me like a sign he's more electable in the general election.

[joshuatxuk]

Just now, goDel said:

 

You sure? Biden basically won the red states which were on last Tuesday. Biden carrying those red states looks to me like a sign he's more electable in the general election.

Among those turning out for the primaries. The real kicker is betting on Sanders canvassing and outreach to those who don't usually vote in key areas the way Trump did in 2016 via social media. It's a legit possibility but riskier than better on Biden. In a true sense a conservative strategy is going with Biden and the more liberal one is going with Sanders.

Anyway, I voted in Texas so I'm just going to try not to pay attention too much to things beyond my control.

[ignatius]

Confused Biden Announces He Is Dropping Out Of Race, Endorses Joe Biden

 

https://thehardtimes.net/culture/confused-biden-announces-he-is-dropping-out-of-race-endorses-joe-biden/?fbclid=IwAR3C1nVD2_-8MwGNVxNi2XivZxl4mGJ6OMI9yZ-6KQHpLjo9gRSsdewCtBo

[Brisbot]

If Biden wins we will for the first time have a general election where both candidates may be in the beginning stages of dementia

[ignatius]

Just now, Brisbot said:

If Biden wins we will for the first time have a general election where both candidates may be in the beginning stages of dementia

if they debate it's going to be amazing. sad but amazing. 

this timeline is so wacky. 

it'd be nice if things swing back some to the left in some way but neoliberals back in charge isn't going to be the answer to all the problems we're facing as country/species. 

all this is a slideshow of scenery on the way to a climate catastrophe. 

[joshuatxuk]

1 hour ago, Salvatorin said:

we need internationalism more than we have ever needed before. we need immediate, decisive action on a global scale. unfortunately, it's just not going to happen.

something is going to have to give, I agree

heaven help us when it happens

as long as leftist movements are alive I'll be hopeful that such plans and ideologies will be on hand for whatever form of rebuilding that will occur, whether it is some post-collapse Tomorrow's Harvest level shit or some far more hypothetical break between the nation states on earth and non-state pioneers expanding into the solar system (sorry, reading Kim Stanley Robinson at the moment)

so it goes in the meantime

[joshuatxuk]

5 minutes ago, Brisbot said:

If Biden wins we will for the first time have a general election where both candidates may be in the beginning stages of dementia

 

[BobDobalina]

In no way do I see Biden as the more electable candidate in the general.

First of all his brain is mush, albeit not the lard-and-faeces version stacked inside Dickhead-in-chief, but mush nonetheless.  All he can do is regurgitate the same empty rhetoric and promises that have defined the Dem party for the past 30 or so years.

Second, all Asshole & Co. would have to do is dust of the Hillary playbook and run it again, that simple.  He's got all that srupid out of touch establishment Dem baggage that's so easy to pummel on.

2 minutes ago, ignatius said:

all this is a slideshow of scenery on the way to a climate catastrophe. 

QFFT

[may be rude]

roger lau, warren's campaign head, signals reassessment

Quote

Elizabeth and I are so grateful for all the hard work of everyone on this team — not only leading up to Super Tuesday, but in all the weeks and months before.

To every volunteer, donor, and supporter: Thank you for everything you’ve done.
Last night, we fell well short of our viability goals and projections, and we are disappointed in the results. We’re still waiting for more results to come in to get a better sense of the final delegate math. And we also all know the race has been extremely volatile in recent weeks and days with frontrunners changing at a pretty rapid pace.

But we are obviously disappointed, and Elizabeth is talking with our team to assess the path forward.

All of us have worked for Elizabeth long enough to know that she isn’t a lifetime politician and doesn’t think like one. She’s going to take time right now to think through the right way to continue this fight. There’s a lot at stake for this country and the millions of people who are falling further and further behind.

This decision is in her hands, and it’s important that she has the time and space to consider what comes next.

Elizabeth believes in her ideas and in the big, structural change that is badly needed to root out corruption in Washington and will decide what she thinks is the best way to advance them.

We’ll have more soon.

https://medium.com/@teamwarren/next-steps-bfa8482e2fbc

 

a lot of warren supporters would go biden.

 

bernie claims he has a "movement" of "tens of millions." he got 13 million voting for him in 2016. that's ten million, not tens of millions. the demographic of the movement is young people. no old people like bernie. college campuses are were these people showing up in the polling are, and they aren't turning out to the voting booths. consistently in every state bernie's turnout is lower than his polling suggests. the supporters are flakier. bernie did worse in many states than he did in 2016. he did not make gains with african americans, either. there were states with record turnout, they went to biden. bernie's turnout numbers do not look high, but biden's turnout numbers are enormous. and this is out of nowhere. a week ago biden was polling as nowhere. his campaign had no cash before saturday. he had no offices in super tuesday states. he had no ads runnining in many of them. he had not campaigned in many of them. and he annihilated in many of those states, because he's the happy warrior. biden is the one showing that he can turn people out at the voting booths. 

 

looked up numbers on warren supporters' second choice. found this vox article from this week.

Quote

Many Warren supporters would go to Sanders, but not all of them. According to Morning Consult, Sanders is the second choice for 40 percent of Warren backers, but Biden and Buttigieg would pick up 16 percent of her supporters, and Klobuchar 12 percent.

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by very honest

[zero]

33 minutes ago, Brisbot said:

At least we don't look like fools with Trump as president. 

maybe he should win 2020 so we can get this over with. what happens if he loses 2020, will we have to worry about him coming back again in 2024? I can totally see that happening btw. he holds court over at fox news for 4 years continuing to add fuel to the MAGA fire, before making a 2024 comeback.