2020 US Election

[cooliofranco]

If you're feeling sick to your stomach this weekend, do some phone banking! They make it pretty easy. I just did some for PA. 

https://www.mobilize.us/backtobluepa/event/334917/

 

You get hangups and a few annoyed people but you will definitely get some nice ones. I had a lade whose 12 year old daughter was making her vote for the first time in her life. It was very sweet.

If you've never done it before it's a bit awkward at first but you get the hang of it pretty quickly.

And yo, if this is all fucked up on Wednesday and you think you could have done more, it'll feel even worse.

 

There are tons of options here https://www.mobilize.us/

 

Edited October 31, 2020 by cooliofranco

[Squee]

21 minutes ago, cooliofranco said:

I had a lade whose 12 year old daughter was making her vote for the first time in her life. It was very sweet.

12 year old?

[Silent Member]

The lady voted, the 12 year old put the pressure on.

[EdamAnchorman]

Quote

Biden Team Cancels Texas Event After Highway ‘Ambush’ by MAGA Cavalry

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus?fbclid=IwAR1zNSIyLjSBnT4p-shYtKvm6PKNHwmJZUBHOiMkoDkZl8N6LKxFMbe8fUs

[may be rude]

9 hours ago, cooliofranco said:

If you're feeling sick to your stomach this weekend, do some phone banking! They make it pretty easy. I just did some for PA. 

https://www.mobilize.us/backtobluepa/event/334917/

 

You get hangups and a few annoyed people but you will definitely get some nice ones. I had a lade whose 12 year old daughter was making her vote for the first time in her life. It was very sweet.

If you've never done it before it's a bit awkward at first but you get the hang of it pretty quickly.

And yo, if this is all fucked up on Wednesday and you think you could have done more, it'll feel even worse.

 

There are tons of options here https://www.mobilize.us/

 

awesome. there is a real need for it, with all the confusion. i also called pa, today. it was easy. that's a good one that you linked to.

[jaderpansen]

17 hours ago, randomsummer said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus?fbclid=IwAR1zNSIyLjSBnT4p-shYtKvm6PKNHwmJZUBHOiMkoDkZl8N6LKxFMbe8fUs

barbarism.

[may be rude]

 

[Hugh Mughnus]

10 minutes ago, very honest said:

 

That estimate seems a bit low, no?

[may be rude]

7 minutes ago, Hugh Mughnus said:

19 minutes ago, very honest said:

 

That estimate seems a bit low, no?

you're right. looking at the study itself, it states that those numbers are the minimum.

Quote

Abstract

We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying countyspecific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).

 

[Hugh Mughnus]

Ah - ok I thought so - thanks for doing the legwork.

 

[hijexx]

 

[ARPA]

54 minutes ago, hijexx said:

 

Everything about this pollster guy is disgusting. *ugh*

[caze]

If he's right the about the 'shy Trump voter' effect it will have to be much larger than in 2016 to explain the current polling. There are also plenty of other explanations for the disparity between the 2016 polls and the results - we don't know if the 'shy Trump voter' is even a real thing, the margin of error already accounts for a lot of it, via small sample sizes in particular, also they didn't do a lot of polling in the rust belt because they felt it was safe, so it didn't track the changes in the race towards the end, there were more undecided voters in the last election, and another issue was turnout (just because someone says they're a likely voter to a pollster doesn't mean they definitely ended up voting, and turnout was low for Democrats in 2016, while Trump got lots of people to vote who don't usually vote). Another thing, shy voters probably do exist, but they exist for Biden too, so it probably largely cancels out, no way that by itself is enough to explain 2016.

[Extralife]

55 minutes ago, caze said:

If he's right the about the 'shy Trump voter' effect it will have to be much larger than in 2016 to explain the current polling. There are also plenty of other explanations for the disparity between the 2016 polls and the results - we don't know if the 'shy Trump voter' is even a real thing, the margin of error already accounts for a lot of it, via small sample sizes in particular, also they didn't do a lot of polling in the rust belt because they felt it was safe, so it didn't track the changes in the race towards the end, there were more undecided voters in the last election, and another issue was turnout (just because someone says they're a likely voter to a pollster doesn't mean they definitely ended up voting, and turnout was low for Democrats in 2016, while Trump got lots of people to vote who don't usually vote). Another thing, shy voters probably do exist, but they exist for Biden too, so it probably largely cancels out, no way that by itself is enough to explain 2016.

Hope yr right.

[Cryptowen]

I feel kinda bad for Kanye West. If he ends up getting even a tiny percentage of the total vote there's gonna be a bunch of pissed off ppl on whichever side loses blaming him for stealing decisive numbers

[caze]

10 minutes ago, Extralife said:

Hope yr right.

I mean Trump still has a small, but not insignificant, chance of winning, it's just not likely to be because of shy voters. 

[may be rude]

 

 

[may be rude]

 

[cooliofranco]

20 hours ago, very honest said:

awesome. there is a real need for it, with all the confusion. i also called pa, today. it was easy. that's a good one that you linked to.

yeah man! there is so much confusion about mail-in rules and deadlines and naked ballots and all kinds of scenarios for voters the calls must really help. e.g. in some states you can bring your completed mall-in ballot to a polling station day of election, in others you can't, well, if you do, you have to have them "soil it" and do a new one. ugh.

Edited November 2, 2020 by cooliofranco

[Brisbot]

 

I have decided I'm just going to put everything on ignore, and check where the election is when I get up on the 4th. There is gonna be a roller coaster of emotions, especially since so many of Trumps supporters think they are making a political stand by only voting on election day

On 11/1/2020 at 8:44 AM, very honest said:

 

 

Conservative Media: Get out of here with your biased science!

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Brisbot

[Squee]

If you guys fuck this up...

[ignatius]

https://www.opb.org/article/2020/11/02/oregon-gov-kate-brown-will-declare-emergency-ready-national-guard-ahead-of-election/

sweet

Quote

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown will declare emergency, ready National Guard ahead of election

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by ignatius

[Nebraska]

https://choosedemocracy.us/

[drillkicker]

If you vote for either of the people who were in the presidential debates, you ought to be exiled, or at least have your suffrage taken away.  There's no excuse, not even a pragmatic one.

The Democrats and Republicans have turned America into a dystopia that experiments on its citizens without their consent.  If you vote to keep this system going, then you are voting against yourself and your nation.

[may be rude]