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Soloman Tump

UK Crimbo Election 2019 - UPDATED WITH POLLOL

UK Crimbo Election 2019 - Voting Intention  

41 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Who gets your vote?

    • Conservatives
      3
    • Labour
      21
    • Liberal Democract
      7
    • Green
      0
    • Brexit
      1
    • SNP
      0
    • Plaid Cymru
      5
    • Independent / Other
      1
    • Not voting
      2
    • Spoilt Vote
      1

  • Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.
  • Poll closed on 12/16/19 at 09:28 AM

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I 100% agree.
*sigh*

we're so fucked.

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3 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

But I do understand the need for investing in our services, NHS and to sort out the housing crisis

after many years of austerity the public finances are in a place that does allow for some proper investment, which makes it even dumber to waste that opportunity needlessly nationalising half the country. instead of doing that, all the money should be invested in existing social services, education and public infrastructure which will spur economic growth. labour's platform would bankrupt the country, create an economic slump that would last a decade or more, massively increase unemployment and poverty, it's the dumbest election platform in the modern age.

 

3 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

Austerity has been reducing year on year and I guess for one thing the Tory's have "Promised" to start spending again, albeit only a small level compared to what Labour and LibDem are proposing. 

it's the Lib Dems who have the only sensible and properly costed spending platform, Tories are pledging to spend without raising taxes, and their sums don't add up either (though not in the same league as Labour's fantasy maths - in reality the country will end up massively saddled with extra debt, or broad based regressive taxation will need to take up the slack, and in the end probably another IMF bailout). 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ifs-manifesto-tory-labour-spending-tax-boris-johnson-corbyn-general-election-a9221411.html

 

3 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

I was tempted to vote Green this time around, but the candidate has been stood down to give the Lib Dems a chance, but I cannot vote for them as I trust them about just as much as I do the Tory's.  Which is only slightly more than Labour.

Why don't you trust the Lib Dems? Tuitions Fees? If so that's a stupid reason, if a party doesn't win an election they don't have a mandate to make government policy, they have to make compromises to try and get what they can out of the deal, which is what they did, and they definitely prevented that government from being worse than it otherwise would have been. Tuition fees isn't even a big deal, most people don't even pay off them in the end.

Edited by caze
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2 hours ago, bendish said:

Harpenden Caze? Me too..despite being nondom tax evader living it up in virgins. my god that const is barber central

Lib Dem probably best there...remain maj i reckon....

close, St Albans. Lib Dems might even win there without tactical voting, the sitting MP is a brexiteer in a heavily reamain area and the Lib Dems have a strong local organisation, not worth taking the chance though, a vote for Labour will be a vote for the Tories. Harpenden seems like a safer Tory seat, but the polling there does seem to suggest the Lib Dems are in with a chance too.

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my constituency is kind of split between two, with the one i'm in being conservative, defending a 12,000 majority. however, the lib dems hold the other part and came 2nd in the last local council elections making them the best bet to hold off the tories where i live. i would add that round my way i've noticed a shit load of lib dem placards and signs in people's windows etc - much more so than any other party. i'm doubtful that the tories will lose the seat, but just maybe. maybe...

some more details on my area: https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/harborough-election-candidates-you-can-3579752

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2 hours ago, caze said:

Why don't you trust the Lib Dems? Tuitions Fees? If so that's a stupid reason, if a party doesn't win an election they don't have a mandate to make government policy, they have to make compromises to try and get what they can out of the deal, which is what they did, and they definitely prevented that government from being worse than it otherwise would have been. Tuition fees isn't even a big deal, most people don't even pay off them in the end.

Not just tuition fees.  I went to uni, have worked hard since and have already paid it all back.

I massively disagree with their stance on Brexit.  it was a democratic vote and it went one way - they are simply ignoring it.  That alone will cost them quite a lot of support.  I voted remain but kinda accept the outcome of the vote.  At worst I would accept another referendum but then we are in the realms of best out of 3 which is ridiculous. 

I don't particularly trust any of the "big 3" parties to be honest; my distrust in politics runs back to the expenses scandal days and the general rhetoric run by all of them over the past few years is pathetic. 

Digging in each others closets, ooooh look at this "leaked" document we obtained via a russian reddit page, renaming twitter handles to mislead, slogans on buses, politicians swapping party allegiance like they are changing their bedsheets, wild outlandish claims of expenditure without any proper sums to back it up.  Everything stinks.  There is no trust that any of them will deliver what they are promising. 

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it was a democratic vote and it went one way - they are simply ignoring it.  That alone will cost them quite a lot of support.  I voted remain but kinda accept the outcome of the vote.


I do not buy this argument. How can it be a democratic vote if it was largely based on lies (which it has been proven to be). People weren't voting for simply "Brexit", as "Brexit" is not a thing in itself - OK then, what kind of Brexit? What do you actually fucking want then? And so here we are...

Also the polling shows that Britain is now majority remain and a large amount of people have changed their minds.

By far the simplest and easiest way to "get Brexit done" (by that I mean get this whole charade over with so we can move forward), is to simply stay as we are and remain. If Boris wins and goes ahead with his Brexit agenda, we will have years more negotiations and it will go on and fucking on. Or we'll leave with No Deal and all the chaos that entails. Nobody wants that.
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1 hour ago, Soloman Tump said:

Not just tuition fees.  I went to uni, have worked hard since and have already paid it all back.

I massively disagree with their stance on Brexit.  it was a democratic vote and it went one way - they are simply ignoring it.  That alone will cost them quite a lot of support.  I voted remain but kinda accept the outcome of the vote.  At worst I would accept another referendum but then we are in the realms of best out of 3 which is ridiculous. 

I don't particularly trust any of the "big 3" parties to be honest; my distrust in politics runs back to the expenses scandal days and the general rhetoric run by all of them over the past few years is pathetic. 

Digging in each others closets, ooooh look at this "leaked" document we obtained via a russian reddit page, renaming twitter handles to mislead, slogans on buses, politicians swapping party allegiance like they are changing their bedsheets, wild outlandish claims of expenditure without any proper sums to back it up.  Everything stinks.  There is no trust that any of them will deliver what they are promising. 

Their stance on Brexit is kinda theoretical - they'd cancel the whole shebang if they won a majority, which isn't likely. But if they did, then that would presumably be on the basis of a strong remain turnout, in which case just cancelling it isn't an outrageous idea. Realistically, in any coalition scenario they'd push for another referendum.

 

This'll be the last UK election I can vote in, been out of the country for almost too long. Last vote like all my others is going to the LDs. They used to rule my county with an iron fist until the MP got caught banging an SAS bloke's wife lol

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1 hour ago, BCM said:


I do not buy this argument. How can it be a democratic vote if it was largely based on lies (which it has been proven to be). 

 

 

You mean, just how general election manifestos are largely based on lies / fantasies too? 

Back to my argument that politicians need to be held accountable to their manifestos. If they do not follow through with their pledges or are found to lie then there has to be repercussions.

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1 hour ago, Soloman Tump said:

Back to my argument that politicians need to be held accountable to their manifestos. If they do not follow through with their pledges or are found to lie then there has to be repercussions.

The Lib Dems never promised in a manifesto to accept brexit at any cost, promising to revoke it if they get a majority (which obviously isn't going to happen) isn't breaking any promise they made to the electorate, and so neither is trying to get a 2nd vote, if either happened it would be entirely democratic. They weren't even under any obligation to vote for enacting Article 50, and given what's happened since, they shouldn't have.

Edited by caze
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9 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

 

You mean, just how general election manifestos are largely based on lies / fantasies too? 

Back to my argument that politicians need to be held accountable to their manifestos. If they do not follow through with their pledges or are found to lie then there has to be repercussions.

I don't agree with this argument. As it's essentially built on a false equivalence, imo.

A general election is fundamentally different to a referendum. In a general election you get to have a say in who will run the government. In a referendum, the people are asked about a single issue. 

Although there's indeed a similarities when it comes to selling stories, the impact of these so-called "lies" is vastly different. (Sidenote: there's an argument here, btw. Describing manifestos as lies/fantasies suggest you might need to learn what manifestos are and what their purpose is in the first place) As in government there's still plenty checks and balances to keep the whole thing on the rails. In the context of a referendum however... well, look at whats happening. Hard to see whether there were any rails in the first place. (Another sidenote: Imo, the referendum as a political/democratic tool is still in its infancy. We just dont know how and when to do them. And with we, I think of modern western democracies in general. This goes beyond the UK.) Arguably, at this point in time, a referendum means you discard the standard institutions of a democracy for a single issue. Read: throw away the rails. Pump some testosterone into what we consider "democracy". And give people the power to influence a decision on a single issue.

Lying in a general election might result in the wrong people in the government seat. That's not nice. But normally, thats a temporary pain. And because of checks and balances, it's mostly annoying but without fundamental impact.

In a referendum, there's an argument about checks and balances. Literally. Given the involvement of the courts. You could make an argument we actually don't know whether there are any. So there's a risk of making decisions based on lies. On fundamental issues. With serious consequences. Hello Brexit. 

In short: no, it's a false equivalence. 

 

Also, sorry for repeating myself in this post. Might need an editor. Just thinking as I go does not result in easy to read text...

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11 hours ago, Soloman Tump said:

Back to my argument that politicians need to be held accountable to their manifestos. If they do not follow through with their pledges or are found to lie then there has to be repercussions.

 

Even when circumstances change and it is impossible for them to follow through with their pledges?

Which is nearly always the case..

 

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21 hours ago, BCM said:

*sigh*

we're so fucked.

Ok tory.

Haven't you got working class people to fuck over or homeless people to spit on?

Edited by milkface

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Ok tory. Haven't you got working class people to fuck over or homeless people to spit on?

 

I don't think they're tory, it's more a criticism of binary thinking that leads to labour voting when they're polling less than 5% in your constituency.  

 

I'm no huge fan of the current lib dems but would I vote for them in those circumstances? fuck yeah. Spoiling your vote or protest voting allowing a tory to squeak a win is the real route to fucking over working class / homeless people IMO.

 

 

 

 

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Ok tory.
Haven't you got working class people to fuck over or homeless people to spit on?
lol you what mate? how can you justify this statement about me? what is it you think you know about my life and situation?

going easy on you for now, but don't get too brave eh?
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50 minutes ago, milkface said:

Ok tory.

Haven't you got working class people to fuck over or homeless people to spit on?

A harsh / nasty personal attack, don't you think?  Indicative of the frustrations of the left and some of the nonsense being spouted during this campaign.

After browsing the manifestos, I would suggest that the labour party is not exactly going to help all of the working class people with the tax rises they have planned.  The squeeze will get worse. 

 

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https://votesmart2019.com/

good overview of the various tactical voting sites in one spot, with some explanation as to why the recommendations they give might differ.

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some of the sites seem to focus too heavily on the results from the last election, without factoring in more recent trends in local/eu elections, as well as recent polling.

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4 hours ago, milkface said:

Ok tory.

Haven't you got working class people to fuck over or homeless people to spit on?

Is it over yet? 

Friday morning is gonna be feverish, heads will roll. The Remain tactical guide site shows the Tories could get a number of constituencies at home. Purest wtf....Bridgend could be going Tory, the ultimate irony statement given how much bs the region has been subjected to under various Tory govts

I just hope that kids who are now eligible get out and help vote these fkn parasites out. They make Thatcher look, almost, sane by comparison, but it’s looking bleak.

Edited by cwmbrancity
Brexit

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1 hour ago, caze said:

some of the sites seem to focus too heavily on the results from the last election, without factoring in more recent trends in local/eu elections, as well as recent polling.

 

Tactical voting is all very well in certain marginal seats.  But if you look at my local results from the 2015 election...

Conservative Party Cameron, David 35,201
Labour Party Enright, Duncan 10,046
United Kingdom Independence Party Strutt, Simon 5,352
Liberal Democrat Graham, Andrew 3,953
Green Party Macdonald, Stuart 2,970

 

Even if *everyone* who didn't vote Tory voted for one other candidate, they would still be 8000 votes short!

Same can also be said for the 2017 election, even though Libs have a bigger share of the vote....

 

Conservative Courts, Robert Alexander 33,839
Labour Carter, Laetisia Catherine 12,598
Liberal Democrats Leffman, Liz 12,457
Green Party Lasko, Claire Elaine 1,053
UKIP Craig, Alexander Alan 980

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focusing too much on the 2017 election is a bad idea, there wasn't much tactical voting going on then, and there have been two other elections since then, plus local polling that needs to be taken into account (couldn't find any for your seat though). the Greens have stood down in a pact with the Lib Dems in your constituency so tactical voting will probably be enough to move them into 2nd place at least. there might be nothing you can do, not all of them will end up being marginals of course. you have nothing to lose in voting for the Lib Dems, all the tactical voting sites are picking them for that seat, it's probably too much to hope for 80% of previous Labour voters to vote Lib Dems there, but you never know maybe enough will and a bunch of previous Tory voters will vote for them too.

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yeah don't go with the results from last general election, a better indication of voter intention is to look at the results from the last local council or european elections

 

 

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1 hour ago, BCM said:

yeah don't go with the results from last general election, a better indication of voter intention is to look at the results from the last local council or european elections

 

 

Interesting. European Election results May 2019, 1st, 2nd and 3rd place were.... so you may be correct in an assumption that if the Greens had stood down in the EE earlier this year, Lib Dems would have returned a clear majority.  Bearing in mind this is on European policy alone.  Who knows I guess is the answer.

 

Liberal Democrats  10604

The Brexit Party   10501

Green Party     4782

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You can't fully extrapolate from those results, given the much lower turnout, it is a decent indication there will be at least some swing towards the lib dems though.

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My last throw of the dice to stop a former colleague of mine winning a seat, the past month has been a wild ride indeed

 

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would be amazing if Johnson lost, fingers crossed. tactical voting probably not enough to help your former colleague there though unfortunately.

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