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that was some plunge.

 

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The last one wasn't a failure. It was a defiance.

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this is crazy.. this guy's name was Adolph. i didn't know people still did that. i mean.. the last Adolph was dead in a bunker. 

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmanuelfelton/coronavirus-victim-healthy-dad-adolph-tj-mendez

 

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He Was A “Perfectly Healthy” 44-Year-Old Father Of Six. He Died From The Coronavirus.

Adolph “T.J.” Mendez was still playing basketball with friends earlier this month. He died from complications of COVID-19 on Thursday.

 

 

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Dammit. I don't even wanna set foot outside anymore, but I got called into work tomorrow. Granted it's only for 4 hours, and human contact should be minimal, but still.

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46 minutes ago, ambergonk said:

Dammit. I don't even wanna set foot outside anymore, but I got called into work tomorrow. Granted it's only for 4 hours, and human contact should be minimal, but still.

had one thing i needed to do today. did it in a hurry. wore a mask. changed clothes washed hands the took off mask then washed hands again. i think i'm good on groceries until next monday.  already have the getting groceries strategy in my mind even though it's a week away.

it always feels weird even to step outside to take the garbage cans out to the street. 

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when i go get groceries i think about how the baskets probably never get wiped down, and they never get shuffled around so the ones on top are always the most used / dirtiest.

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1 hour ago, ambergonk said:

Dammit. I don't even wanna set foot outside anymore, but I got called into work tomorrow. Granted it's only for 4 hours, and human contact should be minimal, but still.

My boss was thinking that we would get back to work this week lol yeah sure...

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39 minutes ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

when i go get groceries i think about how the baskets probably never get wiped down, and they never get shuffled around so the ones on top are always the most used / dirtiest.

Woolies are allegedly spraying them down on the regular. Saw it in action today 

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A new article in the Lancet suggests that the mortality rate is "only" around 0.66% when taken into account all infected and not just the ones that have severe symptoms: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

That would be still much higher than influenza but nowhere near as bad as some estimates a few weeks ago.

Some other things I've learned: The corona viruses are genetically pretty stable unlike influenza viruses. We have new strains of influenza yearly because they mutate so fast and that's why last year's influenza shots don't protect against the latest strains. Also based on previous knowledge on corona viruses the immunity lasts about 2-3 years. So if we get the vaccination we might need booster shots every 2 years.

Also, as I said before, it's probable that the strains with milder symptoms become more commonplace and replace the deadlier strains over time due to evolutionary advantage. So, maybe we have a seasonal corona epidemic every couple of years in the future but it's not going to be this bad.

Anyway, this is NOT the worst case pandemic that the virologists have been fearing. This is more like a rehearsal for that..

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12 minutes ago, iococoi said:

 

He could be a fraud, or he could believe what he says and just be stupid.. And it's not nice to laugh at stupid people so...

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5 minutes ago, yekker said:

And it's not nice to laugh at stupid people so...

GQnaxgf.jpg

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1 minute ago, Rubin Farr said:

 

There's a silver lining here. Those numbers - if true - would indeed make him look bad. At least we got that established. Was worrying those numbers wouldn't even be a problem for a sec. 😜 

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1 hour ago, zkom said:

A new article in the Lancet suggests that the mortality rate is "only" around 0.66% when taken into account all infected and not just the ones that have severe symptoms: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext

That would be still much higher than influenza but nowhere near as bad as some estimates a few weeks ago.

Some other things I've learned: The corona viruses are genetically pretty stable unlike influenza viruses. We have new strains of influenza yearly because they mutate so fast and that's why last year's influenza shots don't protect against the latest strains. Also based on previous knowledge on corona viruses the immunity lasts about 2-3 years. So if we get the vaccination we might need booster shots every 2 years.

One thing I've read is that immunity for the corona viruses that we normally get - and that cause variants of the common cold - only lasts for about a year or so, which is why we can get these types of colds over and over again. Which is not to say that this particular corona virus doesn't cause a slightly longer lasting immunity, though.

 

Quote

Also, as I said before, it's probable that the strains with milder symptoms become more commonplace and replace the deadlier strains over time due to evolutionary advantage. So, maybe we have a seasonal corona epidemic every couple of years in the future but it's not going to be this bad.

 

How do you figure this? While the principle is correct, I don't think a 0.66% mortality rate (or even a 5% mortality rate, even) is high enough to cause this effect. But IANAE* of course.

 

Quote

Anyway, this is NOT the worst case pandemic that the virologists have been fearing. This is more like a rehearsal for that..

 

Yeah, someone from the Dutch version of the CDC pretty much said the same thing in some newspaper or other just a few weeks ago. "This teaches us how prepared we are should a *truly* dangerous virus hit us." or words to that effect. (the answer seems to be: not very)

 

 

* Epidemiologist 

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1 hour ago, Stickfigger said:

Woolies are allegedly spraying them down on the regular. Saw it in action today 

that's good, not so sure about my local dodgy IGA though

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4 minutes ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

that's good, not so sure about my local dodgy IGA though

Oh for sure. 

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trump will hand the mic to whoever will praise him. 

 

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5 minutes ago, rhmilo said:

One thing I've read is that immunity for the corona viruses that we normally get - and that cause variants of the common cold - only lasts for about a year or so, which is why we can get these types of colds over and over again. Which is not to say that this particular corona virus doesn't cause a slightly longer lasting immunity, though.

The 2-3 year immunity was based on previous SARS epidemics that are also caused by corona virus.

6 minutes ago, rhmilo said:

How do you figure this? While the principle is correct, I don't think a 0.66% mortality rate (or even a 5% mortality rate, even) is high enough to cause this effect. But IANAE* of course.

It does not have to be deadly for the effect to take place. If there are severe symptoms in general the infected people will be easier to identify and quarantine. If the symptoms are very mild or non-existent then the virus can spread completely freely.

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1 hour ago, zkom said:

The 2-3 year immunity was based on previous SARS epidemics that are also caused by corona virus.

Ah, ok.

Quote

It does not have to be deadly for the effect to take place. If there are severe symptoms in general the infected people will be easier to identify and quarantine. If the symptoms are very mild or non-existent then the virus can spread completely freely.

I can follow this line of reasoning, but this would only work if infected people are symptomatic as soon as they can spread the virus. Right now this isn't yet clear for COVID-19. 

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