Coronavirus COVID-19

[goDel]

1 hour ago, Enthusiast said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/how-covid-19-poured-cold-water-on-netherlands-eu-romance

 

Best quote in the last bit

Quote

Luyendijk adds: “Macron is half-right because, yes, refusing mutualised debt will fuel populism in the south. But by adopting mutualised debt you are going to fuel populism in the north. Dutch train drivers work till 65 while their French colleagues can retire in their late or even early 50s. Where is the solidarity in that?” But never say never, he says. “Bluntness bordering on boorishness is quintessentially Dutch but so is, in this country of coalitions, flexibility and flip-flopping.”

Also, from a couple of insiders I can tell that the stuff you see and read in the media/public, a lot of it is politically driven. People want you to read it in order to push public opinion into a certain direction. If you sense an outrage coming up while reading something, you basically know you've been spoon-fed something with the goal to trigger you.

In the end though, whether you believe it or not, there is a lot of willingness on the all sides in these discussions. It just takes time to come to a consensus. Which is normal. The stakes are high. Very high.

The public outrage is used to push that consensus into certain directions. Political parties and other interest groups actively approach the media to push their outrage narratives. And much in the media is just copy-paste without critical assessment. Or worse, intentionally pushing certain narratives out of self-interest. In the end resulting in half stories presenting themselves as complete stories.

This one is still one of the better ones though. 

[Enthusiast]

I don't think there is much in that piece that you could argue is there to serve a political agenda. It doesn't have much sympathy for the Dutch position, but what do you expect from a pro-European newspaper? 

[Enthusiast]

By a Dutch professor who lives and works in Milan. I don't think you can get any more balanced than that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/22/european-nations-have-decide-whether-big-compromises-post-coronavirus-funding-are-worth-it/

[EdamAnchorman]

8 hours ago, chenGOD said:

Corporations should pay much more tax than they do in the US, and the tax loopholes that exist need to be eliminated. The rich actually pay an ok share on their income (marginal taxes could be higher), but long -term capital gains taxes need to be raised. Also, offshoring practices and other tax avoidance strategies need to be eliminated.

Even when companies are allowed to "fail" and declare bankruptcy, they look to eliminate or reduce their largest financial liabilities which are often pensions and health care benefits for retirees.  My father was planning to retire around 2010, but his company declared bankruptcy a few years before and as a result, they eliminated the pension and health care for retirees.  The gov't picked up the pension plan at a reduced rate, something like 60% (I guess there is some law that requires this to happen), but he had to continue working for another 7 years to save up enough money to help pay for health care after he retired while the executives were given nice packages for steering the company through bankruptcy.

Fast forward to 2018 and my dad finally retires.  He has 6 months to enjoy retirement before he is diagnosed with a serious lung issue that could potentially shorten his life significantly.

Watching this happen to him has made my attitude toward my employer to be very antagonistic.  I scoff every time they say how much they value their employees and how we're their most valuable asset.  I'm not going to ever go the extra mile for them unless I am compensated, and I am saving like crazy to retire as early as I can.

Edited April 23, 2020 by randomsummer

[dingformung]

@Enthusiast But why do you think coronabonds are better than more extensive bailout funds? The latter wouldn't fuel right wing populism, neither in the North nor in the South, hopefully, or shouldn't. Just double it or something. I'm tired of right-wing populism, I want them to go hide away and shut up like they used to. 

Quote

“If Dutch politicians don’t explain for a very long time how the Dutch economy benefits from the single market, it’s very difficult to explain why the Dutch should pay for the single market … That reminds me very much of the British discussions.”

Isn't that the media's job to explain these things? Why does the media blame politicians instead of itself for bad information culture?

[chim]

7 hours ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

what i'd really like to see is people taking a hard stance against how unfettered capitalism rewards greed and selfishness. greed should be a hot button political issue that gets talked about just as much taxes, healthcare, all the other issues. but the 'greed is good' mentality still dominates despite widespread acceptance of the dangers of this way of thinking (the film wall st for example, which is nearly 40 years old!). greed isn't just taking from others, it's also denying others the same opportunities to succeed that you took for granted.

As long as success and ambition is admired unconditionally, so will greed. It is absurd how hypocritically the public discourse juggles this with moral obligations. I suppose the trick is to distill it into easy commands; send money, recycle, feel better. Survival and security will always take precedent over morals so it cannot encroach on your living standard. Basic income could solve it but why would the bigshots want a potentially self-reliant and conscious majority over headless chicken? The latter just need a carved circle in the ground. 

[chenGOD]

1 hour ago, randomsummer said:

Even when companies are allowed to "fail" and declare bankruptcy, they look to eliminate or reduce their largest financial liabilities which are often pensions and health care benefits for retirees.  My father was planning to retire around 2010, but his company declared bankruptcy a few years before and as a result, they eliminated the pension and health care for retirees.  The gov't picked up the pension plan at a reduced rate, something like 60% (I guess there is some law that requires this to happen), but he had to continue working for another 7 years to save up enough money to help pay for health care after he retired while the executives were given nice packages for steering the company through bankruptcy.

Fast forward to 2018 and my dad finally retires.  He has 6 months to enjoy retirement before he is diagnosed with a serious lung issue that could potentially shorten his life significantly.

Watching this happen to him has made my attitude toward my employer to be very antagonistic.  I scoff every time they say how much they value their employees and how we're their most valuable asset.  I'm not going to ever go the extra mile for them unless I am compensated, and I am saving like crazy to retire as early as I can.

Yeah that’s shit. Pensions should be guaranteed, even in the case of bankruptcy. But in the US where unions have been gutted....

I hope your old man is doing ok, that’s shit all the way round  

 
 

[goDel]

17 minutes ago, darreichungsform said:

@Enthusiast But why do you think coronabonds are better than more extensive bailout funds? The latter wouldn't fuel right wing populism, neither in the North nor in the South, hopefully, or shouldn't. Just double it or something. I'm tired of right-wing populism, I want them to go hide away and shut up like they used to. 

Isn't that the media's job to explain these things? Why does the media blame politicians instead of itself for bad information culture?

The media caters viewers/readers just like politicians cater potential voters.

It's a feedback-loop. In times of populism, the feedback-loop results in a lot of nonsense.

1 hour ago, Enthusiast said:

By a Dutch professor who lives and works in Milan. I don't think you can get any more balanced than that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/22/european-nations-have-decide-whether-big-compromises-post-coronavirus-funding-are-worth-it/

Thx! Good piece.

Only point I'm a bit critical about is the mention of Macrons remark: 

Quote

French President Emmanuel Macron has even warned that the coronavirus could lead to the breakup of the E.U.

I think the way big words are used during negotiations like these, and more importantly, the way the media reports about them, is often with a lot of hype and exaggeration. 

In this piece it's pretty subdued. Superficially speaking. But the context and it's actual meaning is a bit open-ended. It's a half truth presented as truth. Half-truth in the sense that there is a possibility. There always is. But also, it's said during a negotiation-process. Posturing is part of that. So Macron is looking for leverage whenever he says something like that. Especially under current circumstances. He raises the so-called alarm-bell to push the negotiations in a specific direction. And less so as a general warning without any interest in obtaining a specific outcome of these negotiations. Or in other words, he's not an independent bystander.

And that is what is often missed in reporting, imo. It's stated as truth. And people *can* read it to mean that the EU might break and all that. Or worse, people can read into it what they want. Whatever helps them most, I guess.

[dingformung]

But it can actually damage the basis for further EU integration related debates, the same way the Greece crisis and the way it was dealt with still reflects badly on current discussions. Even though Macron might use this scenario as part of his negotiation strategy the danger is real and can't be ignored as the consequences would be serious.

[chenGOD]

4 hours ago, goDel said:

Bluntness bordering on boorishness is quintessentially Dutch

How come this idea has been propagating widely in the last few months? All the Dutch people I've ever met (admittedly a small sample size) have been great people, never found them rude or overly blunt (I did find one professor who reached out to me for input very lazy (as in she wanted me to do her research for her - which I politely declined to do).

This is a simple problem - Southern Europeans (generalizing) want the economic quality of life (not necessarily the cultural one) that Northern Europeans (generalizing) have, but don't want to implement any of the fiscal polices that the bloody Teutons have in place. This is not new. Martin Wolf wrote a couple of good columns for the Financial Times on this. Again, it's back to your original European sin.

[Enthusiast]

2 hours ago, darreichungsform said:

@Enthusiast But why do you think coronabonds are better than more extensive bailout funds? The latter wouldn't fuel right wing populism, neither in the North nor in the South, hopefully, or shouldn't. Just double it or something. I'm tired of right-wing populism, I want them to go hide away and shut up like they used to. 

 

Bailout funds are loans that must be repaid with interest. They come with conditions of austerity attached as seen previously during the European debt crisis. The legacy of austerity in countries that received bailouts is huge youth unemployment, defunded healthcare and education and little to no capital expenditure - and it's widely regarded as a flawed approach that prevents economies from growing and recovering. Any government that accepts a bailout on those terms will not survive long and in Italy the anti-EU populists will most likely surge in popularity.

 

[EdamAnchorman]

3 hours ago, chenGOD said:

Yeah that’s shit. Pensions should be guaranteed, even in the case of bankruptcy. But in the US where unions have been gutted....

I hope your old man is doing ok, that’s shit all the way round  

 
 

Thanks.  He's had some loss of lung capacity which can never be reversed, but he's currently part of a trial for an experimental drug which seems to have stopped any further significant loss, at least for the time being.

Because of his disease, he's in a very high risk category for COVID-19.  I'm not sure how long it will be until I can feel safe visiting him.

[chenGOD]

55 minutes ago, Enthusiast said:

They come with conditions of austerity attached as seen previously during the European debt crisis.

They don't have to. This is where the northern euro policy makers need to learn from the recent past.

[goDel]

1 hour ago, chenGOD said:

How come this idea has been propagating widely in the last few months?

That's the thing, right?

Regardless of your personal experiences, when dealing with people from different cultures, and speaking different languages, people should always be wary to judge others. Differences in cultures and stuff that got lost in translation are important to factor in when being part of situations like these. That's part of the game. And I'm saying nothing new, I hope.

So when people do get rude or show strange behaviour in international meetings like these, people tend to give others some slack. Normally, you wouldn't hear a thing about stuff like this coming out of EU meetings. People in these meetings understand things can come across differently and shouldn't be taken at face value. Reminds me of that "quite good" issue from a while ago. ;D

So, the most simple explanation is it's a mixture of various reasons. And much in public is a bunch of half truths.

There are surely some examples of behaviour from the Dutch which would raise some eyebrows. No denying that. But you haven't heard about behaviour of other countries besides the Dutch. Which is quite telling. You can be fairly sure this goes in more directions. You just wont hear it. As that would truly be a step towards further escalation. And the Netherlands is simply too small to result in a full on escalation. 

Another interesting point is about Germany's positioning within all this. It's largely in the same corner as the Netherlands, but currently plays a more mediating role. Which is rather helpful for the situation, I'd argue. Imagine if Germany was in the same position as the Netherlands. That would make things so much harder.

This is also one of the reasons why comments about the EU breaking are not to be taken too seriously, btw. The fact Germany is publicly trying to mediate towards a broader solution speaks volumes. Again, it would be a problem if Germany was not playing the role they're currently doing, there'd be a problem.

Also note that there is no scenario where there wouldn't be disagreement between the Southern countries and the Northern. These differences are old. And the Dutch were an easy and thankful target. Big enough to matter. And small enough to not matter at the same time. And easy, because, well, poor PR. There's no smoke without fire. It's just that there might be more fires going on. And there's no clear single "firestarter". It's all rather messy.

In other words, some stuff happened, and it was in the interest of a number of parties to put blame on the Netherlands publicly. The Southern countries needed to blow off steam, heighten the sense of urgency and use their posturing to move the collective into their direction. Germany needed to reposition itself. And I'm sure there was some stupid shit about something about a book. (I mean, really....is that what all the fuss is about? Obviously not...)

Again, there's plenty of half-truths out in the open. But never the entire truth. The only thing which currently matters is that the EU comes to an agreement about how to deal with the current situation. And the solution needs to keep the anti-EU sentiments at bay. In the end that's probably the strongest reason for conflicts like these. And anti-EU sentiments are not restricted to the Netherlands, I can tell you that. When that agreement is made, all will be forgotten. (unless the southern or northern countries are deeply unhappy)

I'm fairly confident the EU comes to an agreement. It just wont be without some struggle. Also note that the countries need some struggle to be able to defend the agreement at home. It's going to be a compromise, so no-one will be completely happy. That's just the way it is. And the situation at home, whether it's in a southern country or a northern, is difficult. Euro-scepticism is widespread.

 

 

1 hour ago, Enthusiast said:

They come with conditions of austerity attached as seen previously during the European debt crisis.

That's not in the current plans, btw. 

The analysis that's written here in the Netherlands, is that countries like Italy aren't being helped with loans. Regardless of the conditions. Italy would be better off with investments from other EU countries. And ideally, the entire EU could benefit from investing in Italy. The question is about the conditions which come with those investments. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by goDel

[Enthusiast]

16 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

They don't have to. This is where the northern euro policy makers need to learn from the recent past.

Right. Unfortunately the German and Dutch people see this as a moral issue, which is completely at odds with the financial markets who don't care as long as there is growth. One reason why bonds are a more attractive long term solution.

 

[chenGOD]

3 minutes ago, Enthusiast said:

the German and Dutch people see this as a moral issue,

And there's the generalization that we want to avoid.

[zkom]

What I've started to get most scared about in this pandemic is that how much a virus with an estimated >1% mortality fucks up everything. When the eventual 10% mortality pandemic hits then it's RIP western civilization. Let's not even talk about something like the Black Death that killed estimated half of the population of Europe. Maybe we need to start to prepare for these things a bit better?

[Enthusiast]

47 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

And there's the generalization that we want to avoid.

Oh stop

Quote

This is a simple problem - Southern Europeans (generalizing) want the economic quality of life (not necessarily the cultural one) that Northern Europeans (generalizing) have, but don't want to implement any of the fiscal polices that the bloody Teutons have in place. This is not new. Martin Wolf wrote a couple of good columns for the Financial Times on this. Again, it's back to your original European sin.

 

 

[chenGOD]

If you can't see the difference between a prescriptive generalization like yours and a descriptive generalization, I can't help you. Sometimes they're useful, sometimes not.

[Lane Visitor]

12 minutes ago, zkom said:

What I've started to get most scared about in this pandemic is that how much a virus with an estimated >1% mortality fucks up everything. When the eventual 10% mortality pandemic hits then it's RIP western civilization. Let's not even talk about something like the Black Death that killed estimated half of the population of Europe. Maybe we need to start to prepare for these things a bit better?

Yeah, I've been thinking that everything about our global infrastructure going forward- whether it's industrial/construction (door handles), technology (think public touch / pin pads), medical, food and agriculture, pretty much EVERYTHING needs to change to take pandemics into account. In some ways, we are some steps ahead like with using facial recognition or voice and automated doors and lighting, but in other ways were many steps backwards. I think the future of our species will rely on these considerations when planning anything from here out. It's gargantuan of a change needed, that it's hard to fathom, and may not even be possible. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Lane Visitor
Typo

[ambermonk]

Just now, zkom said:

What I've started to get most scared about in this pandemic is that how much a virus with an estimated >1% mortality fucks up everything. When the eventual 10% mortality pandemic hits then it's RIP western civilization. Let's not even talk about something like the Black Death that killed estimated half of the population of Europe. Maybe we need to start to prepare for these things a bit better?

That was about six centuries before modern sanitation products though. Turns out even the Spanish flu a century ago saw only a fraction of the deaths that the Black Death did.

Although that doesn't mean we can downplay the current pandemic. AFAIK the global death toll has surpassed 180,000 as of today, after a steady rise since the beginning of this month: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19

But I think we're more likely to survive if we're smart, cautious, and diligent. Obv some people in my country are doing the opposite.

[Enthusiast]

4 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

If you can't see the difference between a prescriptive generalization like yours and a descriptive generalization, I can't help you. Sometimes they're useful, sometimes not.

I can help you. Here's Paul Krugman commenting on what I am referring to. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-criticizes-germany-austerity-policy-2016-2?r=US&IR=T

Quote

"Once the bubble burst, there was going to be a difficult time for the Euro, regardless. But it's been far worse than it needed to be and Germany bears some of the responsibility because of turning what should have been viewed as essentially a technical economic problem into a morality play. That has been a very unfortunate story. ...

Austerity policies have taken what was fundamentally a story about excessive private capital flows and housing bubbles and turned it into lectures of fiscal responsibility that have ended up doing a lot of damage."

We can go as deep as you like on this.

[Rubin Farr]

Wot a shame

[dr lopez]

whoop whoop

[chenGOD]

@Enthusiast I think Krugman gets a lot of stuff right, he doesn't get the moral bit right here. The austerity measures were too stringent, but that's no based on morality or teaching a lessons - just a policy failure. Although Martin Wolf (an actual German economist) uses a fable to illustrate the 2008 crisis, it's not done as a morality play, rather to highlight the differing roles each party played. There's no moralism involved.

Wolf - Elucidating the Grasshopper and the Ant.pdf