Coronavirus COVID-19

[MaartenVC]

I found some really interesting graphs and data for the number of deaths / mortality (of Covid-19) in a large portion of Europe.
Data comes from EuroMOMO, a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.
https://www.euromomo.eu/

This date is interesting because you can not always trust the reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths. Most are under-reported.

 

The graph below shows the number of deaths in all EuroMOMO countries combined. All excess deaths are those above the sinus-wave. The sinus-wave is the average normal range of expected deaths. You can clearly see Covid-19 and previous seasonal influenza peaking. 

 

The graph below shows the excess deaths over the year in all EuroMOMO countries combined. Again you can clearly see Covid-19 and previous seasonal influenza peaking. The total number of deaths to Covid-19 so far in EuroMOMO countries can be found by calculating the area under the blue peak, using integration.

 

The map below shows the z-score (= relative excess mortality) of the individual EuroMOMO countries on week 14 of 2020. It's when Covid-19 was at its peak in Europe. (countries in white are not part of the data)

 

 

The graphs below show the z-score (= relative excess mortality) of each EuroMOMO country individually. You can clearly see which countries had more relative excess deaths due to Covid-19. When comparing this to the reported number of Covid-19 deaths of each EuroMOMO country you can find out which EuroMOMO countries under-reported their number of Covid-19 deaths. Belgium is a known case to have had the highest covid-19 death rate in the entire world, but it seems that other countries might actually in reality have even higher relative excess mortalities. And that's just for the countries in this study. I have a feeling that the excess mortality in most countries in the world is higher than what they report, and in some case waaay higher. But, we might never know.

 

[cruising for burgers]

On 7/15/2020 at 2:47 PM, markedone said:

for those not familiar, huntington beach is (relative to the rest of CA and LA metro) a white, wealthy, politically conservative enclave.  just to explain how they were able to find so many stupid fucks.  that said... still 

It's not a mask, it's a muzzle! 

 

Flol, WIN!!! 

[ignatius]

Quote

Study: Middle, high schoolers can spread coronavirus as well as adults

Quote

 

How it works: South Korean researchers identified 5,706 people who first reported coronavirus symptoms in their households between Jan. 20 and March 27, when schools in the country were closed, according to the New York Times.

• They traced 59,073 contacts from the original cases.

The researchers found that children in middle and high school were just as likely to infect others as adults.

• Children younger than 10 years old were around half as likely as adults to spread the virus.

Yes, but: Researchers only traced children who felt sick. The transmission rates for asymptomatic cases remains unknown, and children are less likely than adults to develop symptoms.

 

https://www.axios.com/childen-coronavirus-spread-schools-d925b7c3-0d74-4242-a4a1-d72d5d7696f5.html

[J3FF3R00]

Haven’t seen too many people talking about this...

Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency....

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=6
 

Looks pretty kosher to me.

Nothing weird about the president wanting to control the coronavirus data.
Seems legit. 
 

JK. 
This is fucked.

 

 

[milkface]

23 hours ago, bendish said:

Boris Johnson is going to get away with this just like Blair did on Iraq. Just watch. 

Correct. The British and US people are as stupid as they are gullible.

[marf]

there is a rumor that Type O blood are safe. My Dad is type O, no symptoms.  Comorbidities out the ass, too

 

Still can't see him in the flesh. I have to go to his nursing home window, With about 30 air conditioners blasting in my face. It's fuckin awful

Edited July 19, 2020 by marf

[Psychotronic]

17 minutes ago, marf said:

there is a rumor that Type O blood are safe. My Dad is type O, no symptoms.  Comorbidities out the ass, too

 

Still can't see him in the flesh. I have to go to his nursing home window, With about 30 air conditioners blasting in my face. It's fuckin awful

I'm blood type 0 and i had limited symptoms. They where all there but they just didn't escalate. (ex smoker, 3 years in) But i still had to struggle with it a bit for around 2 months after the first 3 weeks of really being sick.

I can't say if the larger amounts of NAC, vitamins and immune boosters(ginger, chai and stuff) did it, or if it was just my blood type or all of it together. (The NAC came from self made chicken soup and later from pills...)

[ambermonk]

38 minutes ago, J3FF3R00 said:

Haven’t seen too many people talking about this...

Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data

Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency....

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=6
 

Looks pretty kosher to me.

Nothing weird about the president wanting to control the coronavirus data.
Seems legit. 
 

JK. 
This is fucked.

 

 

Hospitals should have the right not to comply to the demands of a wannabe-totalitarian orange shitbag with a fragile ego.

[ignatius]

Boomerang

Israeli doctor reinfected with coronavirus 3 months after recovering

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

[Psychotronic]

7 hours ago, ignatius said:

Boomerang

Israeli doctor reinfected with coronavirus 3 months after recovering

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

I'm yet failing to find a case in the news that actually was sick after being tested again after a longer period.

Same here, all i read is, "tested" positive and early data, needs more study. Not, tested positive and is now very sick again in hospital bed.

These PCR tests can fail or fool people, they aren't perfect. There is also a huge pile of asymptomatic cases out there. Maybe there is a connection. And not every immune system works the same, this is very individual. There's tons of questions here.

Edited July 20, 2020 by Psychotronic

[ignatius]

23 minutes ago, Psychotronic said:

I'm yet failing to find a case in the news that actually was sick after being tested again after a longer period.

Same here, all i read is, "tested" positive and early data, needs more study. Not, tested positive and is now very sick again in hospital bed.

These PCR tests can fail or fool people, they aren't perfect. There is also a huge pile of asymptomatic cases out there. Maybe there is a connection. And not every immune system works the same, this is very individual. There's tons of questions here.

yeah. still so many questions. figuring out how long any immunity might last and how immune a person might be is still going to require lot's of contact tracing and study. i think america is just looking the other way and waiting on a vaccine. 

[ignatius]

hey what? 

 

Quote

 

Oxford University's team 'absolutely on track', coronavirus vaccine likely to be available by September

Oxford University's coronavirus vaccine trial team is 'absolutely on track' and the vaccine could be available as early as September, David Carpenter, Chairman of the Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, which approved the Oxford trial has said.

 

 

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/good-news/coronavirus-vaccine-by-september-oxford-university-trial-on-track-astrazeneca-634907

[MaartenVC]

2 hours ago, ignatius said:

hey what? 

 

 

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/good-news/coronavirus-vaccine-by-september-oxford-university-trial-on-track-astrazeneca-634907

They named the vaccine: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

Edited July 20, 2020 by MaartenVC

[danshoebridge]

I work for the Oxford Trust and I've got to say they really had their shit together on this. Most of the NHS workers here have ended up on the testing and antibody trials, and I ended involved the convalescent plasma trial once I'd recovered. Vaccine trial obviously seems to be going well.

As far as reinfections go... If it behaves like any other coronavirus there will be instances of people getting reinfected (and follow-up WE'RE ALL DOOMED newspaper articles), but I wouldn't panic just yet. 100s of thousands of people have recovered, and of the relatively small number of proven reinfections no-one has died to my knowledge.

[Psychotronic]

54 minutes ago, danshoebridge said:

I work for the Oxford Trust and I've got to say they really had their shit together on this. Most of the NHS workers here have ended up on the testing and antibody trials, and I ended involved the convalescent plasma trial once I'd recovered. Vaccine trial obviously seems to be going well.

As far as reinfections go... If it behaves like any other coronavirus there will be instances of people getting reinfected (and follow-up WE'RE ALL DOOMED newspaper articles), but I wouldn't panic just yet. 100s of thousands of people have recovered, and of the relatively small number of proven reinfections no-one has died to my knowledge.

Thank you!

[Psychotronic]

@danshoebridge Also, do you know details of these cases? Are they running milder than before? The press does say anything. I'm asking because it would explain a throat scratchy phenomenon i had a week a ago, a week after my GF returned from Canada. We both had it. I said at some point here that i had covid already and i have the suspision that my GF also had it around the same time. And this little thing felt like covid is knocking on the door again, but then went away after a few days.

So it could be a bit of a throat thing every ones in a while due to exposure. (just a wild guess)

Edited July 20, 2020 by Psychotronic

[danshoebridge]

[mention=8955]danshoebridge[/mention] Also, do you know details of these cases? Are they running milder than before? The press does say anything. I'm asking because it would explain a throat scratchy phenomenon i had a week a ago, a week after my GF returned from Canada. We both had it. I said at some point here that i had covid already and i have the suspision that my GF also had it around the same time. And this little thing felt like covid is knocking on the door again, but then went away after a few days.

So it could be a bit of a throat thing every ones in a while due to exposure. (just a wild guess)

Virology is not my specific area, but at the moment the proven cases of people who have tested positive twice with a long interval between seem to be rare enough to make the news (recently in Israel and Colorado for example).

 

Like most things it's not black and white but it's fair to say:

- if youre infected you will eventually produce IgM and IGg antibodies

- the antibody levels increase in people that have more severe disease

- these levels then reduce quite quickly (I've been booted off the plasma donor programme as mine are now way down)

- you're more likely to completely resist a subsequent infection with antibodies, but not guaranteed

- if you DID get a second infection (ie test positive on a swab test) symptoms are likely to be much reduced as your body has a headstart second time round, even if you have a low antibody number at reinfection.

 

I'd be worried if you start seeing numerous cases of people coming down with serious symptoms or dying on a proven second infection but to my knowledge that hasn't been seen yet.

 

 

 

 

 

[dingformung]

Can Covid-19 do genetical damage that can be inherited? Would suck for those people who hope that it helps cleanse the genpool from weak genetics

[goDel]

Positive news. (potentially)

Some results from a study published in Nature about T-cells immunity. It appears that people who were infected with SARS in 2002/2003  - which is a similar virus - still have T-cell immunity after 17 years. And it also looks like those T-cells from SARS also protect against the new corona virus. So immunity might be long lasting (these T-cells aren't the antibodies that go away after a month or two) and immunity (resistance is a better word perhaps) to similar viruses might carry over. 

source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference.pdf

Might (partly) explain the amount of people that are asymptomatic.

[Limo]

10 minutes ago, goDel said:

Positive news. (potentially)

Some results from a study published in Nature about T-cells immunity. It appears that people who were infected with SARS in 2002/2003  - which is a similar virus - still have T-cell immunity after 17 years. And it also looks like those T-cells from SARS also protect against the new corona virus. So immunity might be long lasting (these T-cells aren't the antibodies that go away after a month or two) and immunity (resistance is a better word perhaps) to similar viruses might carry over. 

source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference.pdf

Might (partly) explain the amount of people that are asymptomatic.

At this point in time I’ve become very weary about any and all claims made about the corona virus.

I have never seen so much bad “science” dumped on the public as in the past few months. 

https://xkcd.com/2304/

In this specific case, a layman like me can’t immediately spot obvious flaws like p-hacking or ridiculously small effects sizes. However, I will note that all of the effects they found were in petri dishes. No idea how this translates to inside the body.

[zkom]

17 minutes ago, rhmilo said:

At this point in time I’ve become very weary about any and all claims made about the corona virus.

I have never seen so much bad “science” dumped on the public as in the past few months. 

https://xkcd.com/2304/

In this specific case, a layman like me can’t immediately spot obvious flaws like p-hacking or ridiculously small effects sizes. However, I will note that all of the effects they found were in petri dishes. No idea how this translates to inside the body.

Yeah, it's like a rollercoaster. Sometimes covid-19 is supposed to be like airborne HIV and next week it's almost harmless, then the vaccine is impossible to create and next week there's vaccine already almost ready. I stopped following the rapid 24/7 covid news cycle weeks ago and felt immediately better. Just follow the news on whatever the current guidelines are, where it's possible to travel, etc. I'm not an expert who could interpret the studies and I'm not going to base my decisions on random bits of information and disinformation I see in social media, etc.

But I guess if the article is already being previewed by Nature them it's maybe not complete bullshit, but what do I know.

[goDel]

Well, lets look at it the other way around: if people would be able to get it again, we would have seen strong evidence by now (as it would happen frequently). We haven't seen such strong evidence at this point in time.

Obviously, this isn't proof of the opposite either, but at least it gives a good sense of where we are: if people are able to get infected another time, it's not as easy as - say - the winter flue. If it would be - again - we would have seen plenty examples of that already happening.

Just take this into consideration, is all i'm saying. 

If you prefer a white man with gray hear (and a degree) explaining it:

 

[Limo]

2 hours ago, goDel said:

Well, lets look at it the other way around: if people would be able to get it again, we would have seen strong evidence by now (as it would happen frequently). We haven't seen such strong evidence at this point in time.

Obviously, this isn't proof of the opposite either, but at least it gives a good sense of where we are: if people are able to get infected another time, it's not as easy as - say - the winter flue. If it would be - again - we would have seen plenty examples of that already happening.

This is true.

Also, I know from experience there’s some flaws in the tests they use over here, where they can spit out false positives that turn out to be caused by having a large number of antibodies in your blood. Happened to friends of mine. But, of course, anecdotes are not data.

[iococoi]

[YEK]