Coronavirus COVID-19

[Zooluus]

4 hours ago, very honest said:

 

 

in the first chart, the "bottom" that USA hit in september coincides with schools reopening. for the second chart's X axis, you count weeks from the new year to read it. similar seasonality is seen with all respiratory illnesses.

let's hope the US is not hurdling toward a cliff 

narrator: "they were, in fact, hurdling towards a cliff."

[chenGOD]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
 

Did this article get posted already? I’m assuming yes. 
It’s a good article, but I disagree with one of the outcomes

Spoiler

Forward tracing needs to continue, because we don’t know how to preemptively identify a super spreader. We can mitigate risk both through forward and backward tracing  

 

[MaartenVC]

8 hours ago, chenGOD said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
 

Did this article get posted already? I’m assuming yes. 
It’s a good article, but I disagree with one of the outcomes

  Hide contents

Forward tracing needs to continue, because we don’t know how to preemptively identify a super spreader. We can mitigate risk both through forward and backward tracing  

 

A very good article. A must-read imo.

Important quotes from the article: / TLDR:
"The now-famed R0 is an average measure of a pathogen’s contagiousness, or the mean number of susceptible people expected to become infected after being exposed to a person with the disease."..."Unfortunately, averages aren’t always useful for understanding the distribution of a phenomenon, especially if it has widely varying behavior."..."There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious."..."Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it."..."This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries. "..."in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known cases in a megachurch cluster."..."In study after study, we see that super-spreading clusters of COVID-19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time—weddings, churches, choirs, gyms, funerals, restaurants, and such—especially when there is loud talking or singing without masks. For super-spreading events to occur, multiple things have to be happening at the same time, and the risk is not equal in every setting and activity"..."Cevik identifies prolonged contact, poor ventilation, a highly infectious person, and crowding as the key elements for a super-spreader event. Super-spreading can also occur indoors beyond the six-feet guideline, because SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing COVID-19, can travel through the air and accumulate, especially if ventilation is poor."..."given the huge numbers associated with these clusters, targeting them would be very effective in getting our transmission numbers down."..."In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals."..."a relatively quiet period can hide how quickly things can tip over into large outbreaks and how a few chained amplification events can rapidly turn a seemingly under-control situation into a disaster."..."it’s misleading to take too much comfort from a low Rt when just a few events can reignite massive numbers."..." in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another."..."a cluster-busting approach, including undertaking aggressive backward tracing to uncover clusters."..."also focused on ventilation, counseling its population to avoid places where the three C’s come together—crowds in closed spaces in close contact, especially if there’s talking or singing"..."stadiums are open—but without chanting"..."It’s not always the restrictiveness of the rules, but whether they target the right dangers."..."Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both world:s burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation."

[Nebraska]

CDC says airborne transmission plays a role in coronavirus spread in a long-awaited update after a website error last month

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/05/cdc-coronavirus-airborne-transmission/

great news. so now voting in-person just got deadlier

[ignatius]

 

[MaartenVC]

New Cases World Week 38-39:


New Cases USA Week 39:


New Cases Europe Week 38-39:


New Cases Belgium:

[may be rude]

 

responding to trump's infomercial for covid

[zero]

2 hours ago, MaartenVC said:

New Cases World Week 38-39:


New Cases USA Week 39:

 

Greenland's looking pretty good right about now... 

[user]

So in the Netherland it’s forbidden to gather inside for events with more than 30 people, and only when there is no yelling/shouting/singing. 
Churches however are allowed to gather  crowds up to a 100 people. That’s when they don’t use a reservation/registration system. When they do? Unlimited! Singing is encouraged. 
 

I feel it’s time to follow L Ron’s example. 

Just now, user said:

So in the Netherland it’s forbidden to gather inside for events with more than 30 people, and only when there is no yelling/shouting/singing. 
Churches however are allowed to gather  crowds up to a 100 people. That’s when they don’t use a reservation/registration system. When they do? Unlimited! Singing is encouraged. 
 

I feel it’s time to follow L Ron’s example. 

Covidcrisis related fwp; put on a face mask that had an allergen on it on my face today. Que hours of wheezing, sneezing and itching. Fun! 

[MaartenVC]

4 hours ago, zero said:

Greenland's looking pretty good right about now... 

For all WATMMers who'd like to escape covid-19 and move away to a 'safer' country (according to the available data)

• North Korea  (Cases are suspected, but none have been officially reported)
• Turkmenistan (Cases are suspected, but none have been officially reported)
• China  (official reported number of cases is very low...hmmm...)
• Some Oceanian Islands : Vanuatu, Samoa, Kiribati, Micronesia, Tonga, Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu, American Samoa, Cook Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Norfolk Island, Niue, Tokelau, Pitcairn Islands, East Timor, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, New Caledonia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea,...
• Some Caribbean Islands   : Anguilla, Grenada, Saint Lucia,...
• Some more Islands   : Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha, Svalbard,...
• Some Countries in Africa : Eritrea, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Niger, Tanzania, Chad,...
• Some Countries in Asia : Laos, Cambodia, Mongolia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand,...
• Western Sahara
• Antarctica
• Greenland
• maybe most mountain tops and most deserts ... if you can get there.

Edited October 7, 2020 by MaartenVC

[dcom]

Totally Under Control (Documentary) - available on Oct 13.

Edited October 12, 2020 by dcom

[zkom]

On 10/7/2020 at 2:44 AM, MaartenVC said:

China  (official reported number of cases is very low...hmmm...)

Life is pretty much back to normal in China but upon arrival you have to enter a 14 day controlled quarantine where you can't even leave the hotel room. But I might be actually doing this if things don't change by January. Maybe I can get a two month visa? Have to see..

[MaartenVC]

The 2nd European Covid-19 Wave is now larger than the 1st wave.
But the number of new deaths isn't as high (yet?). (or maybe it's less deadly now?)
Germany is doing remarkably good.
I hope they can keep it that way.
Also hope we can all get things back under control soon. (also since flu season will start in the coming months)

[Enthusiast]

Why is Czechia so high?

[user]

I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel the tiniest bit of pride. It's quite rare for the Netherlands to have a strong 2nd half but covid has really made us pull together as a team and show what it means to be inconsiderate, hardheaded, dumb fucks.

[dingformung]

43 minutes ago, MaartenVC said:

Germany is doing remarkably good.
I hope they can keep it that way.

I hope it, too, but I have my doubts. People are getting more careless while the situation isn't getting safer. Also, the far-right organises anti-lockdown demonstrations. Some of them were shut down because people weren't wearing masks (no surprise). Fines for not wearing a mask are now up to 250€, depending on state.

[zkom]

1 hour ago, MaartenVC said:

The 2nd European Covid-19 Wave is now larger than the 1st wave.
But the number of new deaths isn't as high (yet?). (or maybe it's less deadly now?)

In Finland at least the numbers are now higher than in spring because the number of tests have more than quadrupled. In spring you couldn't really get tested unless you needed to be hospitalized, now you get tested even for minor symptoms or just because of contact with someone who was tested positive.

Also it seems that now young people are catching it more but that might also be a statistical illusion because of the thing I just said above. The young people didn't get tested in spring because they didn't show any serious symptoms.

Also the treatments have got better. To my knowledge there's no conclusive proof yet that the virus has mutated to a less deadlier variant yet.

[IDEM]

1 hour ago, dingformung said:

I hope it, too, but I have my doubts. People are getting more careless while the situation isn't getting safer. Also, the far-right organises anti-lockdown demonstrations. Some of them were shut down because people weren't wearing masks (no surprise). Fines for not wearing a mask are now up to 250€, depending on state.

AFAIK, this movement is a melting pot for right-wing and left-wing nuts alike, as well as Reichsbürger, anti-vacchers, tinfoil hats, paranoid dope fiends and what have you. The crème de la crème, if you will.

[manmower]

2 hours ago, zkom said:

In Finland at least the numbers are now higher than in spring because the number of tests have more than quadrupled. In spring you couldn't really get tested unless you needed to be hospitalized, now you get tested even for minor symptoms or just because of contact with someone who was tested positive.

Also it seems that now young people are catching it more but that might also be a statistical illusion because of the thing I just said above. The young people didn't get tested in spring because they didn't show any serious symptoms.

Also the treatments have got better. To my knowledge there's no conclusive proof yet that the virus has mutated to a less deadlier variant yet.

Over here, we're back up to the same positivity rate (~13%) as the day we went into nationwide lockdown in March, despite a 25-fold increase in testing. I think Maarten is right and the virus is massively present now, just fucking everywhere, but the wave is rolling somewhat in slow motion compared to the first one. It seems no matter how many people half-ass or completely disregard all the safety measures, they are still working to slow the spread.

[Braintree]

So jelly. We're still in the first wave over here.

[user]

7 hours ago, IDEM said:

AFAIK, this movement is a melting pot for right-wing and left-wing nuts alike, as well as Reichsbürger, anti-vacchers, tinfoil hats, paranoid dope fiends and what have you. The crème de la crème, if you will.

Yeah, it seems they all sort of clump together, which to my knowledge is usually the case with crackpots. It's strange to me that I never see any in-fighting among them. As long as you believe in some idiotic constructed reality they're no longer going to argue with you. Guess it's because you've proved to be a critical/independent thinker and that's your ticket to the all you can eat absurdist buffet of deconstructionism where you can stack up on facts to interpret freely so that you may unburden yourself from the chaos that is reality.   

Edited October 16, 2020 by user

[may be rude]

excess mortality showing over a quarter million dead americans https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

meanwhile, trump says wearing a mask gives you covid https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/trump-repeats-inaccurate-claim-about-masks-citing-cdc-study-n1243562

Edited October 16, 2020 by very honest

[Soloman Tump]

8 hours ago, very honest said:

excess mortality showing over a quarter million dead americans https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

meanwhile, trump says wearing a mask gives you covid https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/trump-repeats-inaccurate-claim-about-masks-citing-cdc-study-n1243562

haha for the second link, not the first, obv

[jaderpansen]

hesse exponentially turning to shit. see you on the other side...

[dingformung]

On 10/15/2020 at 10:49 PM, IDEM said:

AFAIK, this movement is a melting pot for right-wing and left-wing nuts alike, as well as Reichsbürger, anti-vacchers, tinfoil hats, paranoid dope fiends and what have you. The crème de la crème, if you will.

It's more a right-wing topic and the right likes to fish for voters in these nutjob circles.