Jump to content

Coronavirus COVID-19


BCM
 Share

Recommended Posts

And some interesting critical notes on the "flatten the curve" thing here

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

Summary: when you actually try to fill in the argument with actual numbers, the argument soon falls out of reach (estimate: it would take 10 years to flatten it enough to treat all in need) Take this as a warning of sorts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, caze said:

Part of the reason the mortality rate is so low for people under 60 is thanks to treatment people are receiving in hospitals. Healthy people in their 30s-50s are being put on oxygen and some on ventilators, this happens with people with no underlying health problems, but smokers and asthmatics, etc. are even more at risk. In Italy now they are prioritizing treatment for people under 60. You should read some accounts about what is actually happening in hospitals right now, this is very serious, and requires serious medical interventions in many cases, not just for the elderly. The same risks to younger peopler are there for the regular Flu, luckily it's far rarer due to the lower transmissibility, and the potential lethality was worse for MERS/SARS/Swine Flu, but this one is no joke either. If we didn't have modern medical practices this outbreak would probably be about 10x more deadly than it is.

Couple of comments on the discussion with Chen you were having:

Because of the risk of overwhelming demand on hospitals people in general shouldn't go to the hospital as only a tiny percentage need (urgent) help (and can get it at the same time). If you think you need medical help, try getting advice from a general practitioner first, for instance. (This is the most important reason for people with a mild fever and cough *NOT* to call their doctor! If all people with a mild fever call their doctor, the lines will explode and people who need medical assistent/advice don't get it) And please avoid going to the hospital as much as possible. Some hospitals might (read: should) have some local triage unit organised to keep people who don't need urgent treatment *out* of the hospital, btw.

And please don't expect to be tested either at this point. There's simply not enough tests available. (or capacity to do them/the analysis) Tests are only necessary if treatment-decisions depend on it. And treatment-decisions are a stap after the risk assessment in the care process. So, only with high risk and uncertainty with regard to treatment options a test might be made. (if XXX can comment in this, that would be helpful!)

In summary: stay out of the hospitals as much as possible. And only ask for medical advice when you need it. ("need" as opposed to "want" btw. so if you have a fever and *want* to know whether it's covid19...well, think again. wanting is not the same as needing. make that critical assessment what to do yourself. just consider that time spent on you might mean that time is not going to someone who might need help more urgently.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, goDel said:

And some interesting critical notes on the "flatten the curve" thing here

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

Summary: when you actually try to fill in the argument with actual numbers, the argument soon falls out of reach (estimate: it would take 10 years to flatten it enough to treat all in need) Take this as a warning of sorts. 

did you even read the article, let alone the comments? literally everyone who has anything valuable to say disagrees. it's clickbait and the numbers he cited aren't necessarily the correct numbers. also, the author works in AI, not healthcare. as stated in the comment section:

image.png.4f09c83e156bedb6e4ca470b22755d7f.png

guys, be careful with your sources. people have a tendency to take whatever's in print for truth, even when it's just one version of it. not only saying this in sole response to the cited article, but in general. i don't know how medium makes money, if it even does, but ad-driven media (which unfortunately accounts for many major newspapers) is most likely already competing with over the top, sensationalist headlines in order to attract readers and profit out of the situation.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

well yes and no. id agree the title is clickbaity. and it's a serious mistake if people take this to mean as "it's useless to do anything preventive". i think we can both agree on that part. the part that does seem correct however is that if you actually consider the size of facilities (this goes beyond epidemiology btw) than you run into issues immediately if the current predictions of epidemiologists hold true.

also consider that those comments are not necessarily made by "anyone who has anything of value to say".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From a nurse working in ER in the states: "We're getting young people (20-40) who are coming in with no symptoms except for back pain. We sent them home and shortly after they stopped breathing. They come back and discover they had new renal failure."

Shitttttttt this is the Spanish Flu again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

very clickbaity so, and regardless of the validity of his numbers flattening the curve seems to be the best we can do at this point. the head of the swedish cdc condemns some interventions as being political opportunism (i.e. closing borders when airports are practically empty anyways), which i tend to agree with, while encouraging people to stay at home and away from elders. at this point i feel like people are more afraid of an eventual economical collapse than they are of the virus itself. and by acting accordingly, hysterically stockpiling, scaremongering and what not, they're contributing to the very same collapse more than the virus itself may be. this is what i'm afraid of.

however, to concede a point, yes––considering the size of facilities flattening might not be enough. at the same time, he assumes a normal distribution with "a steep exponential onset", which is exactly what flattening is supposed to counteract. a few paragraphs later he admits himself that "in reality, the spread of a disease does not follow a normal distribution". i mean, come ON dude. i'm not an epidemiologist myself, but he's clearly contradicting himself and what he considers the evidence. on top of that, he's manipulating the incline of his curves to support his point. i'm not sure he's actually using validated current predictions of epidemiologists, but his own slightly skewed interpretation of them. he even writes "my curves are not correct!" in bold italics.

and yeah, i realized i too sort of contradicted myself on that last bit. but while they're not necessarily schooled in the subject themselves, they're still poking holes in a lot of his assumptions and arguments. to me, that's having something valuable to say. i dare say not just the title is clickbaity, but the meat of the article as well. there'd probably be more professionally supported criticism of flattening the curve if he was right. but maybe i've missed it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From a nurse working in ER in the states: "We're getting young people (20-40) who are coming in with no symptoms except for back pain. We sent them home and shortly after they stopped breathing. They come back and discover they had new renal failure."
Shitttttttt this is the Spanish Flu again

Do you have a source for that?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fuck! Look like I’m good to work until the end of this epidemic, my only hope is a total lockdown of the country tonight or tomorrow. What about Italy and Spain ? Are blue collars still working ? We’re like 200 employees at my work place, this is madness...

Edited by d-a-m-o
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ignatius said:


Do you have a source for that?

On another forum where an ER nurse is giving updates each night after his shift is over. That one was from tonight so I don't think there is any news outlets with it yet. Maybe tomorrow?

Edited by Entorwellian
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, hello spiral said:

anyone post this yet?

064694CF-BC62-4908-AC45-516AA405B45A.jpeg

As someone who's actually currently working on 5G technology I can confirm. Good job uncovering this., amateur sleuths.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Local community mental health teams have been calling in patients on tablet forms of anti psychotics for inter muscular timed-release injections. Tiny response from patients so far.

Whatever havoc corona virus does or doesn’t cause, staffing levels etc, 4 weeks from now you may well have highly unstable individuals prone to violence coming off medications they seriously need.

Most letters of notification included this blurb from Mind that only heighten the discrepancies:

https://www.mind.org.uk/information-support/coronavirus-and-your-wellbeing/

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Entorwellian said:

From a nurse working in ER in the states: "We're getting young people (20-40) who are coming in with no symptoms except for back pain. We sent them home and shortly after they stopped breathing. They come back and discover they had new renal failure."

Shitttttttt this is the Spanish Flu again

Man, quit posting this unsubstantiated nonsense. Posting frightening and ominous rumours and/or lies isn't going to help anything. Quite the opposite actually.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, d-a-m-o said:

Fuck! Look like I’m good to work until the end of this epidemic, my only hope is a total lockdown of the country tonight or tomorrow. What about Italy and Spain ? Are blue collars still working ? We’re like 200 employees at my work place, this is madness...

Spain is in lockdown. Supermarkets, pharmacies etc are open and there's a building site nearby that's in full swing. My hotel closes from Wednesday at which point I've gotta find a way to the airport (they say buses are running with lowered service). This morning breakfast was served to us in our room to avoid restaurant contagion. Yesterday spent the entire day literally dossing around the hotel. Today the weather is looking fine and I'm going the fuck out for a bike ride after lunch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • BCM locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Similar Content

×
×
  • Create New...