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Coronavirus COVID-19


BCM

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1 hour ago, goDel said:

 

1 hour ago, BCM said:
2 hours ago, perunamuussi said:
Italy: Only 12% of “Covid19 deaths” list Covid19 as cause
Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed
 
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/23/italy-only-12-of-covid19-deaths-list-covid19-as-cause/

very interesting, thanks!

Looks like very poor reporting. Perhaps fake news even.

 

It looks like they took a piece of legit information (the vast majority of Italy’s COVID-19 deaths had comorbidities*) and turned it into nonsense.

If you have, say, high blood pressure (or diabetes or heart problems) COVID-19 is very dangerous for you and may very well cause you to die.

Would you have been better at surviving COVID-19 had you not had high blood pressure (or diabetes or heart problems)? Of course.

But it’s the COVID-19 that kills you, not the high blood pressure (or diabetes or heart problems).


 

* FWIW that was in a regular and normally somewhat reputable Dutch newspaper this morning.

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So, Trump is still overtly downplaying the severity of this virus and talking about how he'll be "opening up" the country soon so people can get back to work.

A few thoughts... probably stating the obvious:

Trump's personal businesses (notably his resorts... I still can't fucking believe we have a fucking president that's been actively profiting off of goddamn resorts) have had to close to prevent the spread of the virus. I believe he could give two shits about the American people, let alone his resort staff, and is willing to sacrifice millions of lives so he can lift restrictions on his profiting.

Not only this, the fucking republican stooges are still so desperate to avoid any cracks in their veneer that they are STILL willing to support and consciously parrot whatever this monster says, again, at the risk of sacrificing American lives... fucking fascists.

Trump's defense is that he can simply blame Pelosi and the Democratic majority on anything that doesn't look good. Plus, his cult of morons will just believe whatever the fuck he says, even if they end up eating fish tank cleaner and dying (which, not surprisingly, has actually happened) because of mindless/reckless shit he says in his press conferences.

This is all very bad. However...

It's all looking good for humanity that anyone that is a republican or Trump supporter that believes all of his nonsense will likely contract covid-19 and hopefully die off. With the exception of some tragic loss of innocent life due to idiots spreading the virus, this whole thing could result in a best case scenario of all of these evil fucks and anyone brainwashed into believing them and voting for them being wiped off the board. 

Sad thing is, we'll still be stuck with the supreme court, unless they all die, too. 

Edited by J3FF3R00
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thank you for the concern. he is "stable" which means sedated and on a ventilator. The nurse said he is "not worse" than the last few days. they haven't had to increase the ventilator so we'll see. He's fighting it but they won't have a good sense of how he's doing until the end of this week.

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1 minute ago, dr lopez said:

thank you for the concern. he is "stable" which means sedated and on a ventilator. The nurse said he is "not worse" than the last few days. they haven't had to increase the ventilator so we'll see. He's fighting it but they won't have a good sense of how he's doing until the end of this week.

Hope he pulls through!

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5 minutes ago, dr lopez said:

thank you for the concern. he is "stable" which means sedated and on a ventilator. The nurse said he is "not worse" than the last few days. they haven't had to increase the ventilator so we'll see. He's fighting it but they won't have a good sense of how he's doing until the end of this week.

all the best to him

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Looks like very poor reporting. Perhaps fake news even.
It's true that it's a highly nuanced topic, but the underlying epidemiological definitions would be very clear. And of the upmost importance that it is internationally being applied as good as possible. Otherwise, the data is meaningless and research is useless. You can bet your life that plenty of researchers (and the WHO) have been and are looking at this like hawks. 
Without knowing the underlying epidemiological definitions, this article is worthless and pure speculation. Perhaps to get people to believe it's all a hoax. 
Also, the presented argument isn't very strong either. Yes, people don't die "from" Covid-19. They die because of complications related to Covid-19. And especially when comorbidities are involved.
If there are comorbidities, it's hard to say whether a person died because of disease X or Y. That's a given. Within the current circumstances though, the question soon becomes whether a patient would have these complications (with this severity) without Covid-19. Here you'd also have an argument about, well, lets say these complications might have existed before Covid-19, but suddenly became much more severe. Resulting in death. There's still an argument here where you could safely argue this death should be counted as Covid-19 related. Because otherwise, the impact of treatment might have been completely different.
Here's another mindfucker: if patient X dies of an untreated stroke (no Covid-19). And it's untreated because all physicians were busy treating Covid-19 patients and made a conscious choice not to treat patient X because of this, would you count this death under Covid-19? I'm sure that's a no, but really, this needs some thinking is not obvious when you think about it.
it's a no, i'd argue, because you want to assess the risk of dying to covid-19 by counting all patients with covid-19. including those with comorbidities, btw.
In short: looks like poor reporting to me.
all of the things they have reported were also reported in The Telegraph as well, just with a more muted headline.
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2 minutes ago, BCM said:
2 hours ago, goDel said:
Looks like very poor reporting. Perhaps fake news even.
It's true that it's a highly nuanced topic, but the underlying epidemiological definitions would be very clear. And of the upmost importance that it is internationally being applied as good as possible. Otherwise, the data is meaningless and research is useless. You can bet your life that plenty of researchers (and the WHO) have been and are looking at this like hawks. 
Without knowing the underlying epidemiological definitions, this article is worthless and pure speculation. Perhaps to get people to believe it's all a hoax. 
Also, the presented argument isn't very strong either. Yes, people don't die "from" Covid-19. They die because of complications related to Covid-19. And especially when comorbidities are involved.
If there are comorbidities, it's hard to say whether a person died because of disease X or Y. That's a given. Within the current circumstances though, the question soon becomes whether a patient would have these complications (with this severity) without Covid-19. Here you'd also have an argument about, well, lets say these complications might have existed before Covid-19, but suddenly became much more severe. Resulting in death. There's still an argument here where you could safely argue this death should be counted as Covid-19 related. Because otherwise, the impact of treatment might have been completely different.
Here's another mindfucker: if patient X dies of an untreated stroke (no Covid-19). And it's untreated because all physicians were busy treating Covid-19 patients and made a conscious choice not to treat patient X because of this, would you count this death under Covid-19? I'm sure that's a no, but really, this needs some thinking is not obvious when you think about it.
it's a no, i'd argue, because you want to assess the risk of dying to covid-19 by counting all patients with covid-19. including those with comorbidities, btw.
In short: looks like poor reporting to me.

all of the things they have reported were also reported in The Telegraph as well, just with a more muted headline.

Some context for the linked article including daily updates.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR1w1NJxststf8fMmeCS3U_r7jBZC66r4RNmn2A9uN03WUIcm8d2jBKqdJ8

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2 hours ago, goDel said:

Looks like very poor reporting. Perhaps fake news even.

It's true that it's a highly nuanced topic, but the underlying epidemiological definitions would be very clear. And of the upmost importance that it is internationally being applied as good as possible. Otherwise, the data is meaningless and research is useless. You can bet your life that plenty of researchers (and the WHO) have been and are looking at this like hawks. 

Without knowing the underlying epidemiological definitions, this article is worthless and pure speculation. Perhaps to get people to believe it's all a hoax. 

Also, the presented argument isn't very strong either. Yes, people don't die "from" Covid-19. They die because of complications related to Covid-19. And especially when comorbidities are involved.

If there are comorbidities, it's hard to say whether a person died because of disease X or Y. That's a given. Within the current circumstances though, the question soon becomes whether a patient would have these complications (with this severity) without Covid-19. Here you'd also have an argument about, well, lets say these complications might have existed before Covid-19, but suddenly became much more severe. Resulting in death. There's still an argument here where you could safely argue this death should be counted as Covid-19 related. Because otherwise, the impact of treatment might have been completely different.

Here's another mindfucker: if patient X dies of an untreated stroke (no Covid-19). And it's untreated because all physicians were busy treating Covid-19 patients and made a conscious choice not to treat patient X because of this, would you count this death under Covid-19? I'm sure that's a no, but really, this needs some thinking is not obvious when you think about it.

it's a no, i'd argue, because you want to assess the risk of dying to covid-19 by counting all patients with covid-19. including those with comorbidities, btw.

In short: looks like poor reporting to me.

Watch the youtube video from the  chief of the Italian Civil Protection Department (the relevant bit starts at around 2:30). Numbers are stated there. So I get your point, but it's definitely not accurate to say that all those deaths are a result of COVID19. It's also important to remember that those deaths are from people who needed to go to the ICU, which is like 7% of all cases.

I'd say it's pretty clear that there is widescale misattribution in the media to all deaths from coronavirus as opposed to underlying conditions - negative news gets the clicks.

While this is obviously something that should be taken seriously, I'd say that when we look back on this in a year's time, the panicked responses will be seen as very ridiculous. We have numerous communicable diseases, viruses and other things (traffic fatalities) that kill more than COVID-19, but there are nowhere near the same levels of panic over it. Again, I'm not saying it's a hoax, I'm not saying we shouldn't treat it seriously, but we should apply some critical thinking here.

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40 minutes ago, ignatius said:

so sorry @Extralife i hope they power through asap

 

Yeah - their kid actually came down with a 104 fever for a day then no symptoms after that. Then my brother-in-law wakes up the next day completely achey with stuffy nose and no fever. Got tested and came out positive. My sis is now feeling aches and a sore throat. They’ve been like this for two days so far - we will see.

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1 minute ago, Extralife said:

Yeah - their kid actually came down with a 104 fever for a day then no symptoms after that. Then my brother-in-law wakes up the next day completely achey with stuffy nose and no fever. Got tested and came out positive. My sis is now feeling aches and a sore throat. They’ve been like this for two days so far - we will see.

wow. 104 fever is nuts. glad it broke. i'm sure it was no fun. it's good they were able to get tested. 

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16 minutes ago, chenGOD said:

Watch the youtube video from the  chief of the Italian Civil Protection Department (the relevant bit starts at around 2:30). Numbers are stated there. So I get your point, but it's definitely not accurate to say that all those deaths are a result of COVID19. It's also important to remember that those deaths are from people who needed to go to the ICU, which is like 7% of all cases.

I'd say it's pretty clear that there is widescale misattribution in the media to all deaths from coronavirus as opposed to underlying conditions - negative news gets the clicks.

While this is obviously something that should be taken seriously, I'd say that when we look back on this in a year's time, the panicked responses will be seen as very ridiculous. We have numerous communicable diseases, viruses and other things (traffic fatalities) that kill more than COVID-19, but there are nowhere near the same levels of panic over it. Again, I'm not saying it's a hoax, I'm not saying we shouldn't treat it seriously, but we should apply some critical thinking here.

Before I watch the video, lets start by observing that the risk that hospitals are currently overrun with people needing treatment (as opposed to people who panic and think they need treatment!!) is very real. Hope we can all agree on this.

Now we can have some academic discussion about the cause of death. But whatever the conclusion should be, the fact remains that hospitals are full with people with severe complications. More than usual. 

So this whole story about 

Quote
  • The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.

 

is fine and all. But *if* the conclusion is, that this spike in hospital-admissions and mortality is not being caused by COVID19, you'd either have to argue that there isn't a spike in the first place and somehow, for whatever reason, Italy is in panic mode just to fuck us off. Or in other words, this is just business as usual. People die all the time. (good luck with making that argument work)

Or, you need to argue there is a spike which just happens to be at the same time this epidemic is around. A coincidence perhaps? And it's a coincidence that it's pretty much regional and incidence appears to spread like a virus? But dear God, no it's not because of Corona because you can only count pneumonia!!! I'm sure there are some academically skilled people who can convincingly argue bananas are straight instead of curved.

In the end, I really don't care for the academic aspect of this discussion. To me the reality is the healthcare system is in risk of having to deal with an overload. 

Not sure if I had this discussion here, or somewhere else, but I'm really not interested in what people or science think about the risk of dying due to COVID19. I'm interested in how we can go back to normal mode. Where there's no risk of overloading the healthcare system. If we're there, I'm happy.

Whether or not I could die from COVID19, to me, is as interesting as knowing the risk of getting in an accident when crossing the street.

So, about this critical thinking, what would you say we should conclude?

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