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may be rude

Knob Twiddlers
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Posts posted by may be rude

  1. ok so wednesday:

     

    thursday:

    Elon Musk denies a report accusing him of sexual misconduct on a SpaceX jet

     

    friday:

     

     

    i can't help but know that, usually, when a story like that is about to break, the subject of the story has advanced notice because the journalists reach out for comment. so, when he accused the dems of dirty tricks to come, one day before this story broke... did he know that this story was about to break? i can't help but think that it looks likely.

    • Like 4
  2. when is the first show? did it happen yet? wondering what the new set is like

     

    btw i have a take on aelive 16-18. sounds like it was just a song that happened to be an hour (in a good way). the '14 stuff i think was more of a "let's write a live set" piece

  3.  

    Quote

    One of my favorite “proofs” of evolution is the recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN)—the nerve that innervates the larynx from the brain, helping us speak and swallow.  It takes a very circuitous course, looping from the brainstem down around the aorta and then back up to the larynx.  Here’s its course in humans:

    http://whyevolutionistrue.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/good-recurrent-laryngeal-nerve.jpg

    It’s a prime example of “bad design”, that is, of the ham-handedness of any creator that was responsible for designing organisms. Of course, we aren’t designed, but evolved from very different ancestors.  That’s why our bodies are full of glitches and kludges, and this nerve is one of them.  It’s much longer than it need be, taking a tortuous route several feet longer than the direct path from brain to neck.

    I’ve talked about the evolutionary reasons for this many times; you can see the full explanation in WEIT or read about it here.  This diagram shows how it worked: the nerve used to line up with a blood vessel, both servicing the gills of our fishy ancestors.  When the vessel moved backwards during evoution, the RLN was constrained to remain behind it, still retaining its connection to the larynx, which evolved from a gill arch.  The nerve could not “break” to attain the shortest route, for that would not be possible by natural selection: it would interrupt the nerve transmission and be maladaptive.  Click to enlarge:

    http://whyevolutionistrue.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/laryngeal-nerve.jpg?w=500

    As I also point out in WEIT, this poor design reaches ludicrous heights, so to speak, in giraffes, whose long neck makes the RLN take a 15-foot detour:

    http://whyevolutionistrue.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/450px-giraffarecurren-svg.png

    Do remember that this nerve consists of a bundle of nerve cells, each of which travels the entire length of the nerve.  Thus the giraffe must have nerve cells (including the axons) about fifteen feet long. That is a very long cell!

    But there are even longer.  In a new paper now in press at Acta Palaeontologica Polnoica (free at the link, reference below), anatomist Mathew J. Wedel simply thought a bit more about the nerve: what would it look like in animals with even longer necks?  Those, of course, would include the sauropod dinosaurs.  And in some of them, like the gynormous Supersaurus, the recurrent laryngeal nerve, and its included cells, could have been longer than 28 meters (92 feet).  Here’s a diagram from Wedel’s paper, which is very clear and well written (he also explains it in a post at his website, Sauropod Vertebra Picture of the Week?

    http://whyevolutionistrue.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/picture-13.png?w=500

    There’s little doubt, by the way, that dinosaurs did have recurrent laryngeal nerves.  All living tetrapods do, whether they be amphibians, reptiles, or mammals.  This suggests very strongly that the RLN is an ancestral condition in tetrapods, resulting from their mutual evolution from fishy ancestors.

    But wait, there’s more! (Does this sound like an ad for Ginsu knives?)  Even longer cells can be found in living organisms, in particular the blue whale, Balaenoptera musculus.  Wedel speculates, reasonably (I doubt that dissections have been done), that nerves running from the whale’s brain to the flukes of its tail might be 30 meters or more (98 feet) in length.

    But there’s still more!  The sauropod dinosaur Amphicoelias fragillimus was, arguably, as long as 49-58 meters (161-190 feet) from snout to tail.   The nerves innervating the tail could have been only a meter or so shorter than that.  Now we’re not sure about the neck length of A. fragillimus: its RLN could have been 38 meters long (124 feet) or more; remember that the nerve has to run the length of the 19-meter neck twice.

    So what was the longest cell in the history of life? Our best guess is 40-50 meters (130-160 feet!) for nerves innervating the tail in the longest sauropods:

    http://whyevolutionistrue.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/picture-23.png?w=500Wedel points out that cells this long pose some obvious problems to the physiologist:

    • Pain signals traveling along the RLN in sauropods could have moved extremely slowly.  Wedel notes that “unmyelinated vagal afferent fibers have conduction velocities as low as 0.5 m/s, and some unmyelinated fibers are present even in the recurrent laryngeal nerve of the giraffe.  Unless selected for faster response, similar unmyelinated fibers would have taken almost a full minute to relay ‘slow pain’ signals to the brain of Supersaurus!” Wedel notes, though, that an injury to the dinosaur’s throat could have been detected more quickly from damage to nerves in the skin of the throat, whose path to the brain was only a meter long.
    • A bigger problem: nerve cells must transport material from the cell body itself to the tips of the axons.  It’s done through a process called “axoplasmic streaming”, which carries different molecules at different rates.  Neurotransmitters and enzymes, for example, travel 200-400 mm (8-16 inches) per day, but the transport of some proteins is slower: 0.1 -1.0 mm per day! As Wedel notes, “Even at 1 mm/day, slow axoplasmic streaming would take more than four decades to move proteins from the nerve cell body to the axon terminals in the longest neurons of large whales.  This, of course, is not feasible, and Wedel suggests that either axoplasmic streaming must be much faster in whales (and in dinosaurs), or there is some other way they transport proteins through nerve cells.  Here’s a fertile field for cell biologists!
     

     

    • Like 4
  4. macron is probably talking about stuff like biden saying he lost legitimacy and he has to go. lol. now that i think of it, that's definitely what he was talking about. it's dangerous for heads of state to talk that way, and the safest objective by far is negotiated peace. alternative timelines get hairy. people have been saying putin needs to go and i think macron is worried about the international leadership focusing on that path too much. 

     

    14 hours ago, randomsummer said:

    No matter what resolution may come to pass, they should be thinking about a way to minimize Putin's ability to spin that resolution in his internal propaganda machine.  Make it as hard as possible for him to paint himself as anything other than what he really is.  Would be great to force him to do something like an allocution, but he would probably never do anything like that.

    interesting. here again i will point out that sometimes people push things so far that the only remedy is to roundly call out all their shit and nail them to the wall. this kind of attitude needs to be adopted by all, in general, as the new mode of behavior in internet times

    • Like 1
  5. 11 hours ago, ignatius said:

    French President Emmanuel Macron says that Russia and Ukraine would have to come to a negotiated truce and that peace efforts would not be served by Russia's "humiliation".

    https://news.yahoo.com/macron-warns-russias-humiliation-wont-190307741.html

    i'm fine w/it though. i think these kinds of hacks reach some people in russia. perhaps some humiliation is fine. 

    i appreciate macron's take. got to admit that this is pragmatism to keep an eye on the soonest acceptable peace agreement.

     

    so that's purposed for a negotiated agreement resolution. messaging on walking evil serves the separate path of helping putin fall.

     

    in this case the guy has an industry of info war. i think it is important to move the conversation forward and sometimes shameful liars force you to humiliate them because they are such persistent liars. 

     

    yet macron's point seems logically true. 

     

    i don't see how energy can go to legitimizing the bomber of children. it's pretty naked barbarism. 

     

    but russia collapsing is not the greatest scenario. he may try to brutalize his people like gaddafi. but then i would like to think the russian military would kind of freeze. i feel like they're already basically there

     

    maybe negotiated peace is the safest objective. but i don't know how much shaming putin affects negotiations. if anything i think it weakens putin's position. macron may be more concerned about participants in negotiations walking away or something like that?

    • Like 2
  6. 35 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    So far Putin showed clearly he keeps his subordinates in line with fear as he allows himself to kill anyone within his structure who plays wrong or tries to sabotage his plans.

    he operates in a way similar to the kim dictatorship. are russians faking their acceptance of a false reality, similarly to how the north korean people fake it for fear of reprisal? 

     

    41 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    And according to my uninformed guess, the entire critical subordinate structure was long before replaced with spineless and incompetent cowards, because, to follow orders, you don't need sovereign and smart personalities - they need to be pliable and incompetent.

    noticed this with trump. definitely an authoritarian tactic.

    i have no idea how easy or not easy a coup would be, there, because i don't know the details. 

     

    50 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    And even if Putin is removed, a huge power vacuum created will most certainly cause a heavy internal struggle for power that would make any cohesive undertaking even more impossible. I hope I'm wrong, though, but this is how it seems to me so far.

    the aftermath would also be a dangerous time, yes. 

     

    53 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    It also seems that Russia had already switched to conventional warfare using more rudimentary weapons that can still be manufactured in large enough quantities to sustain the conflict: conventional artillery shells, rocket artillery, tanks with HE and HEAT shells... they have their own oil industry that can supply the army with fuel and lubricants as long as Putin made appropriate arrangements to bypass buying (with relevant currency) those resources from his internal market... They can still produce APCs and tanks, albeit without modern equipment for night fighting (night vision, IR vision, laser rangefinding, ERA armor, laser sensors, etc)

    you can say that they can do this but what we are seeing is the equipment they brought to the fight doesn't work. 

     

    54 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    So far, the Russian army achieved taking its main objectives: taking Donbass and the land-bridge to Crimea, now they need to defend it.

    the ukrainian military wasn't deployed when russia invaded. they strategically withheld letting anyone know how they would react. they waited to see what russia would do. zelensky thought he wouldn't do it. putin thought zelensky would flee and the ukrainians would not put up a fight. but zelensky stayed in kyiv and and that activated everybody. and now they are just getting started

     

    57 minutes ago, cichlisuite said:

    How possible is that Ukraine will be able to retake that ground is unknown to me, and this topic was most certainly the subject of debate with foreign visitors to Zelenskyy who offered military aid.

    they are already beating them back. they beat them back from kyiv and now they are making gains in the south

     

     

    • Burger 1
  7. 9 hours ago, ignatius said:
    10 hours ago, trying to be less rude said:

    the funding is going to run out. maybe soon.

    ya think? idk.. seems like they can sustain some of this for a while.. maybe not all putin's plans but seems like they can fire long range missiles from ships for a bit and artillery seems cheap or something. regardless, gonna be a lot more blown up people and buildings in ukraine.  lot's of people predicting a protracted conflict that could last a year or more.. perhaps it'll smolder then spark up then smolder and on and on.. 

    i'm not an expert but i've heard the war is costly. their economy is hit by boycotts, sanctions, bans, etc. their oil deals are going away, and oil is most of the economy. europe is considering a russian oil ban. oil sales to europe alone is more than 10% of russia's gdp. they were a destitute nation, before all this. they are in retreat, they abandoned the front to the north. why? it seems like russia worried they would lose gains made in donbas and in the south if they spread themselves too thin. this suggests they're already pressed for material resources and limited in what they can undertake. maybe not but it looks that way. keeping something is putin's only way to save face in retreat, he wants to keep donbas and the land bridge to crimea. they're focusing there because they're worried they could lose it. and they can, even after consolidating their forces there. they're fighting very poorly, as laid out in detail in the article above.

     

    the russian army is not even painted rust, it's just rust. for all puttin's mind games, he can't change the fact that he sits on a fragile seat. it can fall out from under him if the people who have kept him in power start to lose power themselves. that is what will happen as the money goes away. that could take time to play out, but military decisions are made in advance, in anticipation. putin may withdraw to stop the bleeding. he wants to keep donbas and the south but the ukrainians will push him out.

     

    i am sad to say that we have entered the danger zone - the window of time during which putin may be the most desperate

    • Burger 1
  8. The Battle of Donbas is raging high, but it’s not going the way Russia wanted it to. 

    Almost 20 days in, the much-anticipated and feared grand offensive falls short of expectations. 

    It is still not even close to achieving its ultimate goal — the encircling and crippling of the core Ukrainian military group in the region. 

    Amid fierce hostilities, Russia has only managed to achieve limited territorial gains at significant cost. 

    Slow and painful, the offensive has gradually stalled amid weak Russian reserves and strong Ukrainian defenses. 

    The assault appears destined to fall short of the symbolic success that Russia likely wished to achieve prior to Victory Day on May 9, the day on which Russia commemorates its role in the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. 

    Broken axis

    Prior to the beginning of the Donbas offensive in early April, Russia, according to estimates, concentrated a total of somewhere between 76 and 87 battalion tactical grounds (BTGs) in Ukraine – a total of around 70,000-80,000 troops. 

    According to the U.S. Department of Defense, over 22 BTGs were positioned in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, likely to be replenished and remain in reserve. 

    These units essentially constituted the entire combat-capable force and reserve that Russia could dedicate to the campaign. 

    The failed blitzkrieg that followed, upon estimates by the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense, rendered nearly a quarter of Russia’s 120-125 BTGs incapable of any major operations. 

    What stood against Russia’s offensive, according to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, was a Ukrainian force of nearly 44,000 troops concentrated in heavily fortified, urban areas in central Donbas – the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, and the northern parts of Russian-occupied Donetsk. 

    Read also: EXPLAINER: What to expect from the Battle of Donbas, Russia’s new offensive

    In this new operation, Russia was to eliminate the Ukrainian salient with two massive strikes from the north (along the Izium-Sloviansk highway) and from the south of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. 

    The two key axes were to meet up in between, effectively cutting the Ukrainian force off from supplies and the rest of the country.

    A critical axis was also to surround the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area, bisecting the Ukrainian salient. 

    Screen-Shot-2022-04-21-at-12.41.37-1024x The map shows the approximate Russian strike axes (red) and Ukrainian defense belts (blue) in the early stage of the Battle of Donbas (Liveuamap/The Kyiv Independent)

    The start of Russia’s key offensive in Donbas was confirmed by Zelensky on April 18. Hostilities in the region never died down from day one of the big invasion but, in mid-April, Russian forces partially regrouped and focused on Donbas as the central prize.

    However, as of early May, mere days before the May 9 deadline by which the Kremlin appears to have wanted to display some sort of “victory,” Russian forces have managed to achieve little. 

    Over two weeks of intense fighting, Russia has advanced by no more than 20-30 kilometers in either of the two axes, within a salient of nearly 14,000 square kilometers – roughly the size of the U.S. state of Connecticut. 

    The Russian military has made some limited gains south of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast, having advanced toward Barvinkove. But, as of early May, it has not managed to gain access to Izium or gain a foothold along the Barvinkove-Sloviansk road, which would allow it to approach Sloviansk from the west.

    Russia currently has 25 BTGs attempting to advance in this direction, according to the British Ministry of Defense. 

    On the other axis, Russian forces since mid-April have managed to begin outflanking the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area in Luhansk Oblast, having entered the town of Kreminna and moved some 30 kilometers west towards the towns of Yarova and Liman, where continue to face resilient Ukrainian defenses. 

    This advancement constitutes Russia’s biggest progress thus far after nearly three weeks of intense fighting.

    On April 25, Russian forces also seized the town of Novotoshkivske in Luhansk Oblast, which had been razed to the ground amid hostilities and abandoned by civilians. 

    No significant progress has been achieved by Russia since then. 

    It is critical to note that, according to Western intelligence, the Kremlin likely counted on a decisive victory, including the complete seizure of Mariupol, by early May. 

    On the southern axis, parts of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army have also failed to demonstrate any significant gains in the recent weeks. 

    Ukrainian units continue to successfully defend key points of Huliaipole, Velyka Novosilka, and Vuhledar in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts since mid-March, preventing the Russian axis from moving north.

    According to the Pentagon, the southern deadlock appeared to have been so tight that Russia decided to withdraw at least two BTGs from Mariupol (despite ongoing attempts to take the Azovstal steel plant by storm) and likely redeploy them to Donbas.  

    The Battle of Donbas’ map looks virtually the same since the Russian withdrawal from the north in late March. 

    “Due to strong Ukrainian resistance, Russian territorial gains have been limited and achieved at significant costs to Russian forces,” the U.K. Ministry of Defense stated on April 29. 

    Moreover, according to British intelligence, following the battles of Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv, the Kremlin had limited time to re-equip and reorganize its forces before the Donbas Offensive. Therefore, this reality, alongside poor morale, has hindered Russia’s combat effectiveness and the offensive’s momentum. 

    By early May, Russian attempts to advance stalled on all axes.

    Screen-Shot-2022-05-07-at-03.00.45-1024x The map shows the approximate Russian strike axes (red) and Ukrainian defense belts (blue) in the early stage of the Battle of Donbas (Liveuamap/The Kyiv Independent)

    Mobile defense

    Since the end of the Battle of Kyiv, Russia appears to have learned some lessons.

    Rather than head-on, frontal pushes, Putin’s forces have been methodically probing Ukrainian defenses and trying to hit where it hurts, enjoying quantitative superiority in terms of artillery power. 

    Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are sticking to mobile defense tactics that have succeeded in undermining the Russian blitzkrieg in the north.  

    Instead of taking a hard and static defense against a technically superior enemy, the Ukrainian military maneuvers and rotates reserves, taking advantage of local terrain and exhausting Russian forces. 

    As such, Ukraine’s military retreated from Kreminna on April 18, a town northwest of Sievierodonetsk, to avoid being overwhelmed and to continue exhausting Russian forces for more suitable defense lines.

    April’s rainy forecast, alongside the rugged, forested terrain of central Donbas also played in Ukraine’s favor.

    Ukrainian forces have also continued to outmatch Russia in terms of unmanned aerial vehicles surveilling battlefields. The abundance of Western-provided, man-portable anti-aircraft weapons (particularly, advanced British-made Martlet MANPADs) has also helped the Ukrainian military limit the Russian artillery’s situational awareness as scores of Orlan-10s and other UAVs were downed.

    Notably, as of May 6, Russia has not managed to overwhelm or surround any of Ukraine’s heavily fortified strongpoints and has also failed to merge their attack axes coming from Izium and Rubizhne in central Donbas.

    Since the very beginning of the full-scale war, it has also failed to break through the old Donbas frontline in its best-defended sections, particularly near Donetsk and parts of Luhansk Oblast.

    Even when it comes to overtaking the highway running southeast between Izium and Slovyansk, or the open steppe of Zaporizhia Oblast, Russian forces have found it costly to move on. 

    What lies ahead of Russia in the Battle of Donbas is a range of heavily fortified strongpoints, prepared for a long-lasting and fierce defense, including Sloviansk, Sievierodonetsk, Kurakhove, and Avdiivka.

    At the same time, Ukraine’s rear appears to have motivated and experienced reserves at its disposal, particularly the 3rd and the 4th Tank Brigade units deployed to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area.

    Nonetheless, Russia has not ceased its attempts to gnaw through Ukrainian defenses, even though its main forces have been in hard combat for more than 14 days. 

    As of May 6, local authorities report fierce fighting near Sievierodonetsk, with Russian forces trying to attack the city from multiple directions. 

    GettyImages-1238987007-1024x683.jpg A Ukrainian tank man pictured near the town of Zolote in Luhansk Oblast on March 6, 2022. (ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

    Counter-offensive

    In addition, Russia appears to have a rather scarce reserve for a large-scale operation that is the territorial size of the 1943 Battle of Kursk.

    North of Kharkiv Oblast, Russia still deploys parts of the 6th Combined Arms Army, particularly the 200th Brigade, which is known to have sustained heavy losses near Kharkiv and withdrew for recovery. 

    Following nearly three weeks of the Battle of Donbas, the expert community is increasingly doubtful about any prospects of Russian success in the operation.  

    “Further Russian reinforcements to the Izium axis are unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances,” the Institute of the Study of War (ISW), a Washington D.C.-based think tank, said on April 30. 

    “Russian forces appear increasingly unlikely to achieve any major advances in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct wider counterattacks in the coming days.”

    And indeed, on May 5, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy announced in a conversation with the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces launched “counter-offensive actions” near Kharkiv and Izium. 

    Even before that, Ukraine’s military and U.S. intelligence both said that Ukrainian forces have managed to advance 40 kilometers near Kharkiv, mainly in areas northeast of the city. 

    On May 6, the Ukrainian military reported the liberation of a number of towns some 30 kilometers northeast of the city, having pushed the Russian forces farther north to the state border.

    Ukraine’s activity in the region will likely be of secondary, auxiliary nature to divert parts of the main Russian forces in Donbas. 

    “The Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv city may disrupt Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv and will likely force Russian forces to decide whether to reinforce positions near Kharkiv or risk losing most or all of their positions within artillery range of the city,” the ISW wrote on May 5. 

    “Russian forces made few advances in continued attacks in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to build their ongoing counterattacks and repulse Russian attacks along the Izyum axis into a wider counter offensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in Kharkiv Oblast.”

     

     

    https://kyivindependent.com/national/russias-offensive-in-donbas-bogs-down/

  9.  

    a2077933475_16.jpg

     

    what we have here is some dank techno. track 1 destroys. track 2 takes you to space. etc. it is out today. 

     

     

    Quote

    61 Cygni /ˈsɪɡni/ is a binary star system in the constellation Cygnus, consisting of a pair of K-type dwarf stars that orbit each other in a period of about 659 years. Of apparent magnitude 5.20 and 6.05, respectively, they can be seen with binoculars in city skies or with the naked eye in rural areas without photopollution.

    61 Cygni first attracted the attention of astronomers when its large proper motion was first demonstrated by Giuseppe Piazzi in 1804. In 1838, Friedrich Bessel measured its distance from Earth at about 10.4 light-years, very close to the actual value of about 11.4 light-years; this was the first distance estimate for any star other than the Sun, and first star to have its stellar parallax measured.

     

    Quote

    A K-type main-sequence star, also referred to as a K-type dwarf or an orange dwarf, is a main-sequence (hydrogen-burning) star of spectral type K and luminosity class V. These stars are intermediate in size between red M-type main-sequence stars ("red dwarfs") and yellow/white G-type main-sequence stars. They have masses between 0.5 and 0.8 times the mass of the Sun

     

    61_Cygni_Proper_Motion.gif

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/61_Cygni

     

    who is rtr? just rtr. also it's guavid.

     

    i hope earth and space enjoy this internet post. please check out this excellent music and be nice to each other. thanks

     

    https://analogicalforce.bandcamp.com/album/af043lp-61-cygni

    • Like 4
    • Facepalm 1
    • Farnsworth 1
  10. 25 minutes ago, randomsummer said:
    On 4/28/2022 at 9:01 PM, trying to be less rude said:

    very interesting reporting on russian disinfo: https://crooked.com/podcast/are-russians-buying-putins-propaganda

    That guy seemed extremely knowledgeable on the Russian aspect of this mess. I hope our governments have consulted or are consulting with people like him.

    yeah. he gets in front of government people. here's another one with pomeranzev, from 2019, also on disinfo. https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-peter-pomerantsev-war-against-reality 

    "the nature of propaganda has shifted as authoritarian governments move from silencing dissent to drowning dissent out with squalls of disinformation"

    • Like 2
  11. the guy is astoundingly inept at forming good political takes, and perpetually demonstrates being taken in by deceptive narratives. the whole thing is an embarrassing self-own. it reads like he's one of these Wrong People Annoyed With Cancel Culture so as a billionaire he bought twitter. he's already preaching bothsidesism like he doesn't even know what it is. someone get this man a prescription and get him away from the significant info tool.

    • Like 1
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