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may be rude

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may be rude last won the day on March 31 2023

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  1. thanks for posting these. these are well done. 23:17 in "A Short History of the War in Donbas 2014 2022" is a nice tear on the military significance of modern info campaigns obama on urkaine vs russia, around 55:20 in "The American Origins of Putin's Madness" (circa 2014), was good
  2. seems like a bit of a stretch if you ask me. from what we know of the guy, he's more of the type that goes for the W by cheating his ass off, rather than making a chess move on behalf of his ruskie dad Putin. that's why it's so strange that he worked so hard to fuck up covid response so bad. it cost him the election. his behavior is consistently bizarre in a way that's explainable by one theory. very consistently. national security and intelligence professionals see it. it's out in plain sight. just look into manafort. this shit is happening and they're managing to get away with it with their junk info flood. the first time trump addressed a big audience of US intelligence professionals, he had to drink water with two hands because he didn't want them to see that his hands were shaking.
  3. the ny state criminal case for an illegal election scheme and fraud in 2016, involving trump having sex with a porn star who didn't like him, is now in the hands of the jury. trump did not testify to defend himself, though a conviction looks likely. 4 years ago, trump was saying "don't be a cutie pie" when jon karl asked if everyone who needs a ventilator can get one, as daily american deaths were 10 - 25% higher than usual because of the novel corona virus. in 2020 there were 470,000 excess deaths, statistically, in US. trump actively counteracted the agreed advice from health experts, telling people not to wear masks, preventing tests from being distributed, and undermining public health experts. this page gathers lots of info on trump's behavior that consistently worked to worsen the impact of the pandemic in the US: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/trump-administration-abuses-thwart-us-pandemic-response it's strange because people think trump would have done better against biden in 2020 if not for his poor handling of covid, and i think that's correct. yet what i and others observed is that he consistently steered the ship toward plague ravaging the land. this would make sense if he were seriously compromised by putin, who was directing him to follow a path toward destabilizing the US with an attempted coup. it's like trump chose to have a close election rather than win. think about how he was campaigning against the legitimacy of the election before it even happened. i'm not wrong. there are enough data points to call it. the dude is so fucked. another "remember when," remember when trump's secretary of DHS, accomplished military leader john kelly, felt the need to tell the press that trump was saying stuff like "hitler did some good things"? maga
  4. vast cauldron of tracks pls end of london b (45 - 60) sounds like a track
  5. biden admin rescheduling marijuana from schedule 1 to schedule 3 https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8 this follows similar moves pardoning non-violent marijuana offenders https://www.npr.org/2023/12/22/1221230390/biden-pardons-clemency-marijuana-drug-offenses biden is fucking great
  6. bill crystal is quite brilliant. there absolutely are sane conservatives, many openly are telling voters to vote democrat because there is an important distinction between conservatism and the national republican party. they are two distinct things. sane conservatives are where i'm finding a lot of the best takes in the last few years, like the bulwark circle. people who come from conservatism but recognize where the republican party is at right now. yeah in that podcast the guest is like a serious military type who seems very well-informed on the current state of the ukraine war as well as its place in the broader context of us international diplomacy and military strategy. great example of the difference between real info and pretend junk that goes around btw bias is an extremely commonly used manipulation trick. everyone has implicit bias. it's something you can say about anything. this is how the real manipulators and deceivers are tricking people into: not following journalism. it's a nice trick because you can't prove anyone is not biased. one of the treacherous aspects of the modern info space is that it's not hard to slander someone or something. so, it's easy for bad actors to undermine good sources of information that inconveniently report on their bad actions. one of the root causes of problems in the world right now is that people don't know who to believe, because good sources of info are targeted by bad actors. anyway i'm not an expert on the thinktank and to do a thorough analysis of bias is kind of a red herring and ad hominem fallacy. either facts are well supported and analysis is accurate and insightful or they're not. i can tell you bill crystal is a great person to follow for insight these days. at the end of the day, what you want is people who act in good faith and know how to be careful with information. people who will accept being corrected. journalism is either fact reporting or analysis. fact reporting can be verified. analysis is either insightful or it's not. it's utterly possible to get good at identifying people who are sloppy with info or who are willing spreaders of junk. but then even good people sometimes are wrong. there's that too. it's rough out there for people to figure out what's real in 2024. there are the deceivers, the marks, and the in-between. in-between is an interesting segment, careless people offering the koolaid, drinking the koolaid, and shirking responsibility for the quality of the info they share. the whole dynamic changed in the last 20 years, info previously was propagated very differently and we had arrived at some checks and balances, however imperfect, through trial and error over hundreds and thousands of years. now we need to do that again in this new more complex space and in new ways that we don't even understand yet. one of the new social norms for this modern world is to tell people about good or bad info sources, and to share good info sources, so i appreciate you opening that up for conversation. i shared that video specifically because crystal is one of the great commentators right now and that episode has great info on the present moment of the ukraine conflict.
  7. on celebrity apprentice he was known to regularly shit himself. people say it's because of decades of ritalin abuse and mcdonalds. apparently he may have shit himself in court a couple weeks ago
  8. yes brother laugh but i'm right. people share a lot of innuendo, 10th-hand brain garbage. with 6 months of consequence amplification, and ample facts to use, an individual applying themself could turn a state. no one will ever know that history was altered but you can do it. telling a single good fact to a single individual can have cascading consequences that could change the course of world history and even avert nuclear armaggeddon. prove me wrong
  9. presidential election is not by popular vote. it's about 8 swing states. arizona georgia michigan minnesota nevada pennsylvannia ohio wisconsin AZ is looking safer for biden because they put a draconian abortion thing on the ballot GA is looking harder for biden than it was in 2020. they don't have the senate races. last polls have trump up by 6 or 7 MI had trump polling ahead recently but the most recent poll shows biden up by 1 MN show biden leading in last polls NV has trump ahead by 5 or 10 points OH is considered a redder swing state like florida these days PA has trump up by one point in latest poll WI has trump up in latest polls https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ohio/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ 270towin has an interactive presidential election map https://www.270towin.com/ you can start at "2020 actual" and then give trump GA, PA and WI and he wins georgia was won by 12,000 votes in 2020 arizona was won by 10,000 votes in 2020 wisconsin was won by 20,000 votes in 2020 2020 was won by citizens who fought in the information war. we win this by sharing good facts with people. like: did you know that in january 2021, for the first time in american history, all living former secretaries of defense signed a public letter saying that the military must stay out of any election dispute? that's because the military was worried about being used in trump's coup attempt. https://apnews.com/article/10-former-pentagon-chiefs-trump-warning-eac5170301db792231b94537bfbbceff when talking to people about politics and the election, this dimension of "good facts" is the key dimension to keep your eye on. you want to select for sharing information that is good facts. facts that are relevant, interesting, well-substantiated, easy to check. btw these polls are in one-on-one match-ups. RFK (whose family publicly endorsed biden) and whoever else will complicate it.
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