zazen

I'm all for armchair quarterbacking. Yes its clear Russia can't 'hold' Ukraine, even if they capture Kyiv. I think they know they have made a mistake, if they withdraw with Ukraine not joining nato they can claim a victory. Even if they withdrew tomorrow and sanctions ended, Russias economy is wrecked. The stock market is not re-opening for years, no russian businesses can raise investment from the stock market, Europe and USA pledging to buy less oil/gas. Russias military has been revealed as poorly maintained and badly organised. Thats quite a suprise, and quite a problem for them. But yeah Putin will carry on. I think militarily its heading for a long seige of Kyiv, and Kyiv could stand for a long time with European supplies coming in. Then meanwhile economic warfare between Russia and the west, which will affect everyone (energy prices, food supplies etc) but hurt Russia more. And then that continues until the Oligarchs and whatnot decide to get rid of Putin and put in someone easier for them to control. The Russian people are like a sea being held back by Putins tight control and propaganda. Once the other powers in Russia (oligarchs, mafia) start to turn against Putin, the wall holding the Russian people back crumbles and they will rush in. But it will be the oligarchs and mafia in the background positioning themselves to make sure whatever new government forms will be working for them. So the people will play a part, but probably not get much out of it other than another slightly less bad gangster.

edit: no idea who this guy is but its something of an explanation "Erbil has been hit before by Iran. In past they claimed that they targeted the Mossad. I suspect this is the same thing - US/Israel will know it. They hit late at night, probably no casualties signalling they don't want to escalate. Tit for tat revenge for Israeli Syria strikes"

About 10 pages back I mentioned the leaked letter from an FSB analyst that the Bellingcat guy said seemed genuine. That letter got widely reported in the press. Supposedly there are several more letters from the same guy, english translations here: I havent been able to find anyone vouching for these in the same way as the first one, nor am I sure why they are being translated into english by an American racecar driver. But they continue with the same themes - everything is fucked inside the FSB and in the Russian economy, every management layer lying to the layer above about how things are going, and even if they capture Kyiv or Zelensky there is not really any plan. This part of the most recent (5th) letter is interesting: So due to a sortof 'chinese whispers' process of everyone telling their boss how great things were, Putin really thought that there were people in Ukraine who would welcome Russain troops. The second letter (see links above) is a sortof psychological analysis of Putin from the point of view of the FSB guy. He essentially says that Putin is stuck in a hall of mirrors with various groups of confidants feeding him fabrications in order to get the particular things they want to happen. Like Putin has all the levers of power but is in thrall to competing groups around him. The third letter has some stark predictions about the likely collapse of the Russian government within the year. As I said, havent been able to easily find anyone vouching for these subsequent letters but they mostly expand upon the themes of the first one anyway.

I have a story about nasi goreng, I was backpacking around indonesia with then gf and we got off a long distance bus at a bus station somewhere and we're spotted as westerners and so a whole crowd of taxi drivers pop up and are standing around me saying "Transport?" "Where you go?" etc. Which is fine really because thats the reality of the situation and they need their work. But me and gf are tired and just can't handle the negotiations right now so I announced "Nasi Goreng!" and the taxi chaps laughed and pointed us to the nearest cafe which was great.

I think we all agree that Putins stated aim of 'denazification' is bullshit. But Ukraine does have a small minority of heavily armed far-right militias that have been absorbed into their official armed forces. Hermolia is posting about them a bit too much but on the other hand I think we need to remember that they are there. When it comes to the endgame of this conflict they might be an important factor. e.g. If Zelenksy gets a peace deal but the far-right militias dont like it, they may turn on Zelensky. Or if Zelensky is killed and there is a power vacuum, they might try and step in, etc. And as has been pointed out there are also far-right militias fighting on the Russian side. I don't want to keep sending the thread down the same tangent again and again but the reality is a bit complicated: Yes Putins denazification rhetoric is bullshit but yes there are heavily armed nazis in ukraines army and also on the russian side.

I like Edward Snowden, he took real risks leaking what he did, and what he revealed did lead to a lot of changes (a complete change to the way people thought about snooping on the internet, like pretty much every website being ssl now). He had to go on the run, via Hong Kong. Didn't intend to end up in Russia but thats where he ended up ("exile was not a choice") In the run up to the invasion of Ukraine he was skeptical of Biden. Maybe that was being forced, or maybe its just what he thought... Then when Putin made his speech on the 21st about recognising Donetsk etc Then on the 27th, three days into the invasion: And nothing since. Nothing from his wife either. They've got a little kid and another one on the way. Maybe he's lying low, maybe he's trying to get out? I mean I know its just one small detail of this massive crisis thats affecting millions, but still.

Hermolia wants Putin gone and an independent Ukraine. OK so someone else have a go - as citizens what should we be lobbying for?

I think you're all being a bit hasty. What Putin really wants is to annexe Ukraine. Hermolia wants Ukraine to remain independent. Surely an independent Ukraine without the Azov is something we can all get behind? I could quibble about Hermolia's mention of Nazis in the Ukraine government (havent seen evidence of that) but they are definitely in the military. (usual disclaimers, just a minority of them etc) re: Luhansk and Donetsk: I'm a bit in the dark on that aspect. Are we generally of the opinion that the separatist movements in those places are fake? And Nato and USSR/Russia keeping missiles away from each other is something they've agreed on in the past. As I asked Hermolia to state his position I feel I should stick up for him a bit.

Well maybe but as we're all here talking about it, it matters in that sense. I wont quibble, your points 1 to 5 seem fairly reasonable to me. As in there are much worse ways it could end, and Ukraine remains independent.

Agree with all that fxbip but it is still kindof interesting that the nato twitter account tried to do an International Womens Day tweet and accidentally tweeted a pic of a soldier with the black sun. Its subtle, a leather patch just below her scarf. @ilqx hermolia xpli : Friendly question: So you dont like Putin, and don't like Nato, and don't like the Azov. What would you have the world's citizens do at this point? I guess you'd say you'd rather it never got to this point. But as it has, whats your ideal way forwards? e.g. Lobby for humanitarian aid and cease all military action from both sides? I'm not trying to take the piss, just trying to understand where you're coming from as its obv quite different to most other people here.

Hearing the word Oligarch a lot. There's a whiff of double standards about it - "that side of the fence they have oligarchs, this side of the fence we have billionaires". But people with lots of money will always have sway in politics, whatever country it is. Is it a bit more blatant in Russia? Seems like we're supposed to think it is. Probably it is. Anyway so been googling 'american oligarchs'. The Koch brothers spring to mind. And Murdoch. But the New Republic has a nice feature called "Oligarch of the Month", there's a good international roster there. https://newrepublic.com/tags/oligarch-of-the-month (paywalled unfortunately)

ok this one is complicated. obviously 'burning books' has lots of historical connotations. But in this photo the point of the books is to help the tires burn, to make a big defensive fire barrier to help hold back an invading army. They aren't burning the books because of their contents, they are burning them because theres a war going on and they need flammable material. The books look random (people zoom in in the replies). So they are old random books. Maybe they are from a damaged building and were going to rot anyway? We don't know. But we know they they are making a defensive barrer. I thought your post about zooming in on the soldier in the getty image and finding a black sun was interesting and useful, but I think this book burning one is reaching a bit too hard. edit: and to clarify, my own position is that Putins stated reasons for the invasion ("denazification") are obviously complete nonsense. But also, there are a tiny minority of heavily armed nazis in Ukraine that we need to keep an eye on. When the conflict does end, what the armed far-right do next might be important. We can't pretend they aren't there.

In the 20th and 21st centuries there are 730 dates where the digits add up to 68 like that. But so far only 3 of them have started wars.

Yeah thats something. USA bought 20 million barrels a month from Russia in 2021. Average price over that period was $70 per barrel so thats $1.4billion per month or about $47 million per day. Compared to Europes 500 million euros per day (or was more like 200 million euros per day in 2021 when prices were lower) my rough calcs come out with the USAs dependence on Russian oil/gas being about 10% to 25% of the size of Europes dependance.

During the cold war the USA had a deal to sell wheat to the USSR And today Europe is spending 500 million Euros per day on Russian gas Forget about nuclear (its not going to happen) ... but the real nuclear option is actually gas. If Russia decides to stop selling us the gas, or if Europe somehow decides to stop buying it. Then we'll know the disagreement between the powers is really getting serious.

I like nuance, its about understanding the details I think its possible to understand that Putins rhetoric about de-nazifying Ukraine is bullshit, while also acknowledging that Ukraine does have a bit of an unusual nazi situation. The far right only got about 2% in the 2019 Ukraine election. Not that different to a lot of countries. But the difference in Ukraine is that the far-right are heavily armed. They will likely be a factor to keep an eye on in the end-game of this conflict. I think its important to be aware of them, not sweep it under the carpet. New York Times article from Mid February: "Armed Nationalists in Ukraine Pose a Threat Not Just to Russia" https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/world/europe/ukraine-nationalism-russia-invasion.html New Statesman, mid February "Silence won’t make the Ukrainian far right go away" https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2022/02/silence-wont-make-the-ukrainian-far-right-go-away

I'm glad we've got all different voices in this thread, I'd rather have it that way than heavily normative. I'm getting useful bits from all of you, even if there are some bits I don't agree with. And everyone is being reasonably civil, if you allow for the fact that emotions will run high in a thread like this ?

Bellingcat* are an independent researcher/journalist collective based in the Netherlands. When Navalny got poisoned with novochok in August 2020, they worked with other news orgs to uncover the identities of the Russian agents involved, and even managed to extract a confession from one of the unwitting agents by helping Navalny pose as a senior officer in a phone call. So, quite badass. Their exec director is Christo Grozev and he's on twitter https://twitter.com/christogrozev Today he tweeted this thread about a supposed whistleblower letter from an FSB army analyst: Original russian letter on Facebook here: https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327 Machine translated English version here: https://pastebin.com/hm1VHQY6 Brief summary: Guy says everything is chaos in the army, they went in unprepared hoping for quick victory. A culture of officers embellishing the truth to keep their superiors happy has led to a lot of problems being hidden. Its worth reading. There's a bit about nukes that caught my eye: I found that interesting and reassuring. And then I got thinking - its common knowledge that USSR/Russia has a load of ICBMs. And they exist as a deterrent - if you have a load of ICBMs they give you power just by existing but if you ever actually have to use them, its already game over. So ... why spend a lot of money and effort keeping these extremely complicated and expensive devices in tip top condition? Its enough that everyone knows you have them. I suppose you need to give the appearance of keeping them in order, somehow. I guess you assume there are spies around. Anyway this whole thing could be a fake leak but anyway there it is, and Christo Grozev thinks it seems legit. (* not to be confused with boomkat)

Yes I'm seeing chatter about that. Worried that it might be wishful thinking. There has been a clear theme though since the start that Russia were doing badly on the ground and somehow unable to get air superiority

Its true I can't do much*! You are saying, I think, that people must organise to have any power. When I spoke of 'holding the powerful to account' I was thinking of criticism really ... and trying to head off the argument of 'why criticise the usa when there are much worse countries'. They deserve scrutiny because they are powerful, even if we accept there are worse state actors around. * In a small way I think every pound or dollar that a person spends is like a little vote. And also where their money comes from. So I try to spend my money and obtain my money in ethical ways. But that itself is a sortof luxury that not everyone can afford. ** Also I live in the UK where the political spectrum is somewhat to the left of the USA. We have some checks and balances against capitalism here. Although you have to fight to keep them from eroding.

140 million people blocked from Facebook. I wonder what effect that will have on the population. Seems they're unlikely to just shrug? edit after reading subsequent posts: Ah I see, more like only 7million users....

Well thats the thing isn't it. Communism may sound great to some people but in practice devolves into something messy. Similarly 'perfect markets' in Capitalism are impossible to achieve, because its in the interest of all the players to exploit any externalities that they can, and break rules where they can get away with it, and skirt as close to monopoly as possible, and perform regulatory capture of the government in order to boost corporate welfare and so on. So you end up ruled by giant corporations which are kindof like immortal superpowered toddlers in their moral outlook. I'm down with Chomskys analysis of that - all the CEOs may talk about their love of free markets but behind the scenes they're lobbying for whatever welfare they can get from the government. THAT SAID ... if we're going to live in a world with one dominant superpower I'd rather it be the USA than China. BUT we do need to hold the powerful to account. OK I've solved the capitalism debate we dont need to talk about it anymore in this thread

Offering this up as 'interesting example of ultra specific analysis on twitter': Trunk mainenance guy can deduce from a few photos that the russian army hasn't been looking after its trucks properly. another tyre guy chimes in here saying they are using cheap Chinese tyres.

I think you're trying to say, something about Russia allowed Putin to hold onto power for 22 years. And you're trying to figure out what? I'm not sure that the problem is 'not capitalist enough'. I'm not a russia expert but I've heard some say that Yeltsins reforms in the 1990s were too radically pro-capitalist and led to economic chaos and corporations running off with loads of loot ... Putin then benefited from that chaos by 'bringing stability'. ^ This is my brief take on it, might be wrong But I guess something about Russias authoritarian past makes it easier for an authoritarian to take hold there, compared to say France or whatever?

Indeed. But then I'm free to respond to your response if I think you're missing something. And so on. Dialogue is really important.