zazen

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-suspends-11-political-parties-with-links-to-russia

Interesting to look back at this now (from 24th Feb, page 1 of this thread) It seemed like Russia were going to steamroll in there and take all the key infrastucture with no resistance. Videos of tanks rolling over the border and helicopters above Kyiv. Then later that day Russia failed to take Hostomel airport. That was odd - a superpower special ops team just completely fail at something? And we've come such a long way since then. In the last five years or so it seemed like Putin had impunity to do whatever he liked - poisoning of the Skripals in 2018 on UK soil, poisoning Navalny in 2020. These were things that the west absolutely knew Putin had done but did nothing about them. Partly because so many of our politicians have been taking donations from oligarchs. Russian funding was behind a lot of the Brexit campaign. And the whole orange man thing. Now it turns out the Russian army is corrupt and badly organised and equipped. Turns out western governments can just seize all the Oligarchs assets if they want. Turns out Europe and the US can find the will to give up the addiction to Russian fossil fuels. Putin isn't actually a puppet-master, he's a puppet of the people around him who've been feeding him overly positive assessments of Russias capabilities.

ah ok I misunderstood

Wait, do you understand what I was saying in my post about spotless? I'm saying everyones' clothes looked too clean. Soldiers and civilians in a war zone dont usually look so spotless. I'm taking that as a hint that the video might be fake. I agree with all of that sentence.

You don't need to take a house hostage to make that video. You just need twenty friends, two uniforms, a gun, a piano and an Azov patch. I note that one of the hostages uncrosses and recrosses their legs in a way that seems fairly relaxed to me. But I'll admit that I might be reaching with that detail. Everything looks suspiciously clean to me though, and there's no outside reference to show where in the world these people are. Can we agree that both sides (and the supporters of both sides) will be engaging in social media propaganda?

So that video is by Patrick Lancaster, he may be a Russian asset, he has appeared on RT and although he claims to raise money by crowdfunding, back in 2017 the BBC could only find traces of $6500 raised that way. On 22nd Feb, Patrick Lancaster filmed at the scene of a supposed Ukrainian IED attack, which Bellingcat analysed in depth and concluded was a staged event. That said, here's a 2014 New York Times article in which Human Rights Watch conclude that Ukraine has used cluster bombs in Donetsk in the past. The Guardian has both sides blaming each other for the rocket, and notes that Denis Pushilin (head of the Donetsk People’s Republic) says his troops shot the rocket out of the sky. So thats contested. Why would Ukraine risk doing something like this at this stage? But I note that there's credible reports of Ukraine using cluster munitions in Donetsk in the past and so I'll keep an open mind on that one. Hopefully in time journalists and researchers will be able to find out what happened here. edit: edited to remove snark

Well, it might be what it appears to be. Why would the Azov make a human shield? Russia is just bombing cities willy nilly anyway. On the other hand, it would be easy to stage, just stick an Azov badge on some camo. You don't see any faces in the video. Everyone is dressed in spotlessly clean clothes - the guys in camo and all the people on the floor. The gloves, boots, gun, gun strap, all absolutely spotlessly clean. Everyone lying on the floor has a nice clean jumper and clean jeans or tracksuit. Hardly seems like its taking place in a war zone. It could be any room anywhere in the world. Why the creepy piano?

Heat

Like a sketch, but can't possibly be a sketch

but Whats the meta-game on peace deals? I suppose both sides have to evaluate it based on what position both sides are left in if the deal gets broken. Or I guess the game is you bludegon your opponent into accepting the deal they dont really want by simultaneously negotiating and fighting. The costs mount day by day until eventually a deal gets made, but the last scraps of trust gets destroyed. So the deal is only worth anything if the rest of the world continues to watch closely. I suppose a lot of ceasefires and peace deals dont last long; they are fundamentally very unstable things.

haha

I'm all for armchair quarterbacking. Yes its clear Russia can't 'hold' Ukraine, even if they capture Kyiv. I think they know they have made a mistake, if they withdraw with Ukraine not joining nato they can claim a victory. Even if they withdrew tomorrow and sanctions ended, Russias economy is wrecked. The stock market is not re-opening for years, no russian businesses can raise investment from the stock market, Europe and USA pledging to buy less oil/gas. Russias military has been revealed as poorly maintained and badly organised. Thats quite a suprise, and quite a problem for them. But yeah Putin will carry on. I think militarily its heading for a long seige of Kyiv, and Kyiv could stand for a long time with European supplies coming in. Then meanwhile economic warfare between Russia and the west, which will affect everyone (energy prices, food supplies etc) but hurt Russia more. And then that continues until the Oligarchs and whatnot decide to get rid of Putin and put in someone easier for them to control. The Russian people are like a sea being held back by Putins tight control and propaganda. Once the other powers in Russia (oligarchs, mafia) start to turn against Putin, the wall holding the Russian people back crumbles and they will rush in. But it will be the oligarchs and mafia in the background positioning themselves to make sure whatever new government forms will be working for them. So the people will play a part, but probably not get much out of it other than another slightly less bad gangster.

edit: no idea who this guy is but its something of an explanation "Erbil has been hit before by Iran. In past they claimed that they targeted the Mossad. I suspect this is the same thing - US/Israel will know it. They hit late at night, probably no casualties signalling they don't want to escalate. Tit for tat revenge for Israeli Syria strikes"

About 10 pages back I mentioned the leaked letter from an FSB analyst that the Bellingcat guy said seemed genuine. That letter got widely reported in the press. Supposedly there are several more letters from the same guy, english translations here: I havent been able to find anyone vouching for these in the same way as the first one, nor am I sure why they are being translated into english by an American racecar driver. But they continue with the same themes - everything is fucked inside the FSB and in the Russian economy, every management layer lying to the layer above about how things are going, and even if they capture Kyiv or Zelensky there is not really any plan. This part of the most recent (5th) letter is interesting: So due to a sortof 'chinese whispers' process of everyone telling their boss how great things were, Putin really thought that there were people in Ukraine who would welcome Russain troops. The second letter (see links above) is a sortof psychological analysis of Putin from the point of view of the FSB guy. He essentially says that Putin is stuck in a hall of mirrors with various groups of confidants feeding him fabrications in order to get the particular things they want to happen. Like Putin has all the levers of power but is in thrall to competing groups around him. The third letter has some stark predictions about the likely collapse of the Russian government within the year. As I said, havent been able to easily find anyone vouching for these subsequent letters but they mostly expand upon the themes of the first one anyway.

I have a story about nasi goreng, I was backpacking around indonesia with then gf and we got off a long distance bus at a bus station somewhere and we're spotted as westerners and so a whole crowd of taxi drivers pop up and are standing around me saying "Transport?" "Where you go?" etc. Which is fine really because thats the reality of the situation and they need their work. But me and gf are tired and just can't handle the negotiations right now so I announced "Nasi Goreng!" and the taxi chaps laughed and pointed us to the nearest cafe which was great.

I think we all agree that Putins stated aim of 'denazification' is bullshit. But Ukraine does have a small minority of heavily armed far-right militias that have been absorbed into their official armed forces. Hermolia is posting about them a bit too much but on the other hand I think we need to remember that they are there. When it comes to the endgame of this conflict they might be an important factor. e.g. If Zelenksy gets a peace deal but the far-right militias dont like it, they may turn on Zelensky. Or if Zelensky is killed and there is a power vacuum, they might try and step in, etc. And as has been pointed out there are also far-right militias fighting on the Russian side. I don't want to keep sending the thread down the same tangent again and again but the reality is a bit complicated: Yes Putins denazification rhetoric is bullshit but yes there are heavily armed nazis in ukraines army and also on the russian side.

I like Edward Snowden, he took real risks leaking what he did, and what he revealed did lead to a lot of changes (a complete change to the way people thought about snooping on the internet, like pretty much every website being ssl now). He had to go on the run, via Hong Kong. Didn't intend to end up in Russia but thats where he ended up ("exile was not a choice") In the run up to the invasion of Ukraine he was skeptical of Biden. Maybe that was being forced, or maybe its just what he thought... Then when Putin made his speech on the 21st about recognising Donetsk etc Then on the 27th, three days into the invasion: And nothing since. Nothing from his wife either. They've got a little kid and another one on the way. Maybe he's lying low, maybe he's trying to get out? I mean I know its just one small detail of this massive crisis thats affecting millions, but still.

Hermolia wants Putin gone and an independent Ukraine. OK so someone else have a go - as citizens what should we be lobbying for?

I think you're all being a bit hasty. What Putin really wants is to annexe Ukraine. Hermolia wants Ukraine to remain independent. Surely an independent Ukraine without the Azov is something we can all get behind? I could quibble about Hermolia's mention of Nazis in the Ukraine government (havent seen evidence of that) but they are definitely in the military. (usual disclaimers, just a minority of them etc) re: Luhansk and Donetsk: I'm a bit in the dark on that aspect. Are we generally of the opinion that the separatist movements in those places are fake? And Nato and USSR/Russia keeping missiles away from each other is something they've agreed on in the past. As I asked Hermolia to state his position I feel I should stick up for him a bit.

Well maybe but as we're all here talking about it, it matters in that sense. I wont quibble, your points 1 to 5 seem fairly reasonable to me. As in there are much worse ways it could end, and Ukraine remains independent.

Agree with all that fxbip but it is still kindof interesting that the nato twitter account tried to do an International Womens Day tweet and accidentally tweeted a pic of a soldier with the black sun. Its subtle, a leather patch just below her scarf. @ilqx hermolia xpli : Friendly question: So you dont like Putin, and don't like Nato, and don't like the Azov. What would you have the world's citizens do at this point? I guess you'd say you'd rather it never got to this point. But as it has, whats your ideal way forwards? e.g. Lobby for humanitarian aid and cease all military action from both sides? I'm not trying to take the piss, just trying to understand where you're coming from as its obv quite different to most other people here.

Hearing the word Oligarch a lot. There's a whiff of double standards about it - "that side of the fence they have oligarchs, this side of the fence we have billionaires". But people with lots of money will always have sway in politics, whatever country it is. Is it a bit more blatant in Russia? Seems like we're supposed to think it is. Probably it is. Anyway so been googling 'american oligarchs'. The Koch brothers spring to mind. And Murdoch. But the New Republic has a nice feature called "Oligarch of the Month", there's a good international roster there. https://newrepublic.com/tags/oligarch-of-the-month (paywalled unfortunately)

ok this one is complicated. obviously 'burning books' has lots of historical connotations. But in this photo the point of the books is to help the tires burn, to make a big defensive fire barrier to help hold back an invading army. They aren't burning the books because of their contents, they are burning them because theres a war going on and they need flammable material. The books look random (people zoom in in the replies). So they are old random books. Maybe they are from a damaged building and were going to rot anyway? We don't know. But we know they they are making a defensive barrer. I thought your post about zooming in on the soldier in the getty image and finding a black sun was interesting and useful, but I think this book burning one is reaching a bit too hard. edit: and to clarify, my own position is that Putins stated reasons for the invasion ("denazification") are obviously complete nonsense. But also, there are a tiny minority of heavily armed nazis in Ukraine that we need to keep an eye on. When the conflict does end, what the armed far-right do next might be important. We can't pretend they aren't there.

In the 20th and 21st centuries there are 730 dates where the digits add up to 68 like that. But so far only 3 of them have started wars.

Yeah thats something. USA bought 20 million barrels a month from Russia in 2021. Average price over that period was $70 per barrel so thats $1.4billion per month or about $47 million per day. Compared to Europes 500 million euros per day (or was more like 200 million euros per day in 2021 when prices were lower) my rough calcs come out with the USAs dependence on Russian oil/gas being about 10% to 25% of the size of Europes dependance.