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Roo

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Posts posted by Roo

  1. University of Sydney modeling (albeit not rigorously peer-reviewed just yet) shows that apparently 8 of 10 Australians complying with simply staying home may flatten the curve into controllable territory over 3 months. 70% compliance will result in failure to flatten the curve. 90% compliance would come close to eliminating the threat. Closing schools will ultimately have negligible impact on all this.

    So yeah, hopefully 3/4s of us at least are strictly following self-isolating advice.

    • Like 2
  2. Oversteps is a really strong album, but I personally couldn't possibly place it any higher than #10 among their studio albums. Great albums can still end up being 'lesser' albums when discussing an act like Autechre. You see a similar thing in the Bad Seeds discography (although I think disagreement is even more widespread there, with Nocturama the only little-loved). I'm glad Oversteps has champions though!

    • Like 1
  3. 1 hour ago, goDel said:

    That doesn't sound sympathetic to the pov of Honk Kong and Taiwan, imo. You expect they simply let China run over them?

    Even if the governments don't formally go into some conflict with China, you'd also have the people. So yeah, you'd most likely end up with a conflict no matter what, I'd argue. People simply wouldn't put up with it. As they'd consider this as much an existential threat as this virus. Some even moreso, perhaps. (as their livelihood is at stake. some would rather be dead than to be locked in some china regime, i'm guessing. and i'm not suggesting this would be a rational kind of reasoning. generally speaking, i'm not expecting people to be behaving rational. i mean, remember those beaches in bondi? that's people reasoning from their own personal livelihoods. in short: yeah conflict.) O, and I'd argue China knows this very well. This wouldn't be the time to push extra millions of people in internment camps to learn about their place in that new chinese society. In the meantime, the resulting situation would greatly increase the risk of this epidemic getting out of control again. I'm not well versed in Chinese governments reasoning, but I suspect they can think of this themselves as well.

    You are right in that I do find your argument very logical in a more general sense, just in my experience studying Chinese governance (and working in Asia-Pacific geopolitics and military capabilities) this is frankly one of the best opportunities they have ever had to push things a little and potentially take Taiwan back. If Taiwan isn't on their highest alert level right now, and over the next 12 months, they are kidding themselves. I don't actually think it will happen, as to me Taiwan has lessened in priority as China's interests abroad have proliferated (and hard takeover would've lessened as a strategy in recent times), but this is a delicate time in their relations and worth keeping a vigilant eye on. Sorry if I gave the impression that I thought they were done for, I just find their vulnerability a lot more heightened right now.

    • Like 1
  4. 35 minutes ago, goDel said:

    Think I'm on the opposite in this discussion.

    Given the current context I think it's less likely the scenario you sketch will happen. Less likely than before the virus, that is. Reason is that all countries, including China are coping and dealing with something much bigger than those Honk Kong/Taiwan issues. Even China needs to do everything to keep their own situation under control. In terms of health and safety. But also in terms of economy and implications for the society. Making a move on either Hong Kong or Taiwan would seriously threaten their own efforts to manage the impact of this pandemic.

    Only the foolish would start some conflict under the given conditions. Not even North Korea would try to take over South Korea, I believe. Although there was this US attack in Iraq a week ago, I guess. So yeah, that's Trump. Trump makes a good example of how to do foolish stuff.

    It wouldn't be a "conflict" necessarily, just a decisive encroachment, and I think you underestimate the scale of the challenge that is China's typical domestic governance issues. They are constantly dealing with a variety of things like this all the time. I think some western leaders would lose their mind if faced with the same predicaments (although the exercise and control of power may be contextually different). In other words, if anyone can still do neighbourhood things whilst this is going on, it is China.

    • Like 1
  5. 17 minutes ago, Zeffolia said:
    News Brief: As a Social Democracy Response to Covid19 Falters, Likelihood of Martial Response Rises
     

     

    Yeah it seems to be the tone of recent days. If you can't do what you're told, we'll intervene more forcefully.

    But given the manner in which the likes of Trump and "I'm going to the football" ScoMo have talked about this crisis not long ago, it is hard for them to claim the high road immediately. And our societies are built around individualism and self-interest and relatively sheltered, ignorant lifestyles. If there is a new boogeyman, we just send young soldiers overseas to put a stop to that evil. It isn't something we have to worry about internally, but a simple cartoon of moral certainty. We are privileged and safe from the rest of the world and any complexity therein.

  6. 56 minutes ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

    ^ that weed looks shite

    also weren't half the people in WWF / WWE coked up

     

    also also just waiting for the announcement that russia has mobilised their army to "bring stability to the world" or some shit. now is the perfect time for someone to start some shit.

    I've been nervous for Hong Kong and Taiwan for a few weeks now. China will quietly gobble them up whilst the rest of the world can't do anything about it.

    • Like 1
  7. 5 hours ago, yekker said:

    One of two job sites shutdown. My boss is giving me a few hours today.. I can see it all my work being done in a week.

    I'm feeling the loneliness of this self isolation. I mean I'm usually alone and like it but I feel more lonely because I recognize that other people are lonely... Hmm.

    Yep, I typically love the lockdowny quarantine lifestyle, but the idea of all those extrovert sad faces out there right now does have a killjoy effect on me. You feel lonely for them.

    • Like 2
  8. 7 minutes ago, prdctvsm said:

    time 2 give yr dad a good ol' "ok, boomer", works a treat.

    More of a Gen Z style term that one. I'm a Gen Y thirtysomething, a bit too churlish for my tastes but I completely get it. A bubbly but stubborn nevermind is my go-to escape rope there.

    • Farnsworth 1
  9. Was talking on the phone to my Dad a few minutes ago and started to bring up the contextual power of the Bondi crowd image. He started to reply "I think they should let the crowds go to the beach. The saltwater will cleanse them"

    ...

    Fk me! Quickly made up an excuse that I was busy making lunch and had to go. Just couldn't keep talking to a comment like that.

  10. 1 hour ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

    well i woke up to construction noise next door for the first time in ages (they're building a small set of luxury flats). this is despite NSW prem saying only essential services will stay open come tuesday. not sure if this is them getting in one last drill or dig, or if this is now a thing (again). they're allowed to start at 7am, which is ridiculous imo.

    The east coast of Australia is just full of facepalm. Secession has to be building its case for some other states right now.

  11. 1 hour ago, joshuatxuk said:

     killed Trish Keenan of Broadcast

     

    That's a little disturbing. I went to a handful of shows in Sydney that 2010/11 summer. Felt like Swine Flu had completely left the news by then, wouldn't have even thought about it. Unlucky.

  12. That picture of the Bondi beach crowds might be one of the finest examples in recent memory of the context of an image. Normally a picture of a big crowd on a sunny day enjoying the beach is a sign of wellbeing, idyllic lifestyle, prosperity, togetherness, etc. But on this particular day, it was something bordering on communal atrocity, an act of complete recklessness which forced the hand of subsequent government measures. Like an enforced collective sick day and being caught in the act out and about.

    Future historians will treasure its textual interpretative power (as well as many others like the French revellers and the airport queues, but something about that Bondi image feels exceptional to me).

    • Like 1
  13. They are tossing up whether to send all the NRL clubs up to my part of Queensland ? Noooooooooooo! Don't do it. The last thing I want in a Mad Max situation is to be living anywhere near ALL the rugby players, let alone their bringing the virus from Sydney to a region little-affected just yet.

  14. 1 hour ago, prdctvsm said:

    ^ no footy = end of the world amirite

    It seems like it for some lol, like it is their sole interest. Even as an avid fan, I find it difficult to even care about it right now.

    A bit of a shame in hindsight that a week ago they didn't just cancel the AFL men's and divert resourcing into assisting the AFLW finals teams to quickly finish their season (and market it as something bigger). Missed opportunity to send a positive solidarity message for the future of the game. But financially mens Round 1 is probably more lucrative, so hard to expect that kind of vision.

    • Thanks 1
  15. Western & South Australia are entering state lockdown (can't blame them after the Bondi/ship stuff the other day in NSW). As a result the AFL season is postponed till end May.

    NRL teams are restricted to eastern states, so the comp is still alive for now.

  16. 55 minutes ago, pcock said:

    Did anyone else know that swine flu infected an estimated 20 percent of the world population? I barely even remember thinking about it

    It was probably the biggest pandemic I've ever encountered personally. I was still a kid/teen when SARS hit, so it was more something I saw on the news than in regular daily life. In swine flu I was evicted from a plane for suspected symptoms, and a lot of ill people in western cities were getting around with masks for several days. It was one of the leading stories during 2009 and broke out of Asia a little.

     

    From a UK context, maybe it failed to reach the UK, and maybe something like Mad Cow disease felt more intrusive.

  17. Very much agreed. I so want us to learn from this revealing experience and not just return to the exact same late-capitalism society of 2 months ago, but power just has an inevitable way of corrupting good intentions and sending influence deeper and deeper into subliminal territory until our sense of reality and history and free will distorts. American imperialism has been increasingly evil over the last two centuries, they've made a mess of the world like most imperialists before them. Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, West Papua, Middle East in general, etc. just absolute assholes. And new assholes, whether China or some tech conglomerate or post-Mad Max barbarism society, is just waiting in the wings to repeat the same old under different complexions.

    • Like 3
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