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manmower

Knob Twiddlers
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Posts posted by manmower

  1. The Lure of the Caricature - Anger and the Public Sphere (by Zeynep Tufekci)

     

    Quote

    Meanwhile, in reality, there are a substantial number of people who remain unvaccinated who could be convinced or pressured (via mandates). Not all of them are dislikeable, misinformation-spouting die-hard anti-vaxxers with strong ideological agendas. Many of their reasons range trivial to historically-rooted to personally idiosyncratic, but more importantly most of those are addressable with some effort.

    For some people, it’s as simple as being afraid of needles—something that can be addressed with support.

    Others are worried about side-effects making them lose days from work, or about not having childcare during that time.

    Black people remain under-vaccinated, and their historic and ongoing mistreatment by the medical system clearly has a big role to play in this ongoing mistrust.

    Plus, the actual risk itself can move people. As of today, over 90% of 65+ people in the United States have had at least a single dose, and we know that this group has been particularly prone to misinformation and tends to be overrepresented in the Fox news audience. At some point, though, reality bites and moves people.

    Anger is a sponge that soaks up energy. In this case we are spending that energy getting angry at the wrong target to boot—the ordinary people rather than the anti-vax grifters who trade in their attention.

    I think mandates plus reality will make a lot more progress on this issue, especially since we seem incapable of even recognizing the hold-outs who aren't in the “inconvincible hateful rabid anti-vaxxer” mold.

     

  2. 8 hours ago, Claudius t Ansuulim said:

    ok, perhaps I should clarify that statement then. When I said “destroy your natural immune system” I was referring to the possibility that we are talking about boosters and annual shots, which is where it looks this thing is headed imo.  That kind of program for a technology that hasn’t really been evaluated long-term is just stupid. and dangerous. if somebody hasn’t gotten sick in YEARS, let them keep doing their thing. we’re all trying to stay safe and healthy for the most part, but if you don’t see the shortsightedness in jumping headfirst into a mandated annual drug program I don’t really know what to tell you…

    Welp, so much for my charitable interpretation of what you were saying.

    • Like 1
  3. They might be talking about immunity debt due to ongoing non-pharmaceutical interventions though.

    For the record I don't think the notion of 'defeating' the virus is particularly useful either. Way too vague, and current vaccines are just a safer way of achieving what would have happened anyway. And if you're trying to emphasize that the virus isn't sentient maybe don't use expressions like "beating it into submission".

  4. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

    Quote

    These results from the Imperial-led REACT-1 study, a major coronavirus monitoring programme, are based on swab tests taken by almost 100,000 people in England between 24 June and 12 July.

    [...]

    The study’s analyses of PCR test results also suggest that fully vaccinated people may be less likely than unvaccinated people to pass the virus on to others, due to having a smaller viral load on average and therefore likely shedding less virus.

    [...]

    Based on these data, the researchers estimate that fully vaccinated people in this testing round had between around 50% to 60% reduced risk of infection, including asymptomatic infection, compared to unvaccinated people.

    In addition, double vaccinated people were less likely than unvaccinated people to test positive after coming into contact with someone who had COVID-19 (3.84% vs 7.23%).

    Professor Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at Imperial, said: “The Delta variant is known to be highly infectious, and as a result we can see from our data and others’ that breakthrough infections are happening in fully vaccinated people. We need to better understand how infectious fully vaccinated people who become infected are, as this will help to better predict the situation in the coming months, and our findings are contributing to a more comprehensive picture of this."

     

  5. Some more encouraging stuff about your vaccine protecting others even from Delta: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1

    Preprint obviously but:

    Quote

    While initial Ct values were similar; the effect of vaccination with a more rapid decline in viral load (and hence shorter duration of viral shedding) has implications on transmissibility and infection control policy. A shorter duration of infectivity may allow a shorter duration of isolation for vaccinated individuals. Based on our data, it seems likely that vaccination reduces secondary transmission, though this needs to be further studied in larger community surveillance studies. Other studies found similar impact of vaccination on other variants.

     

    • Like 2
  6. 1 hour ago, ignatius said:

    which vaccine? pfizer is doing pretty well against delta variant. still break through cases but so far those people are only experiencing mild symptoms *mostly*.  we'll probably get a booster at some point of same vaccine or new version that is modified for other variants. i think israel is doing boosters for over 65 people who are 6 months from their 2nd shot. 

    i don't think the vaccines are being oversold when you consider they can prevent serious case of the disease. 

    I don't think there are hard contradictions between my posts and yours. I'm 100% pro vaccine and agree all of those that were available to me are already awesome as is, so awesome in fact that I suspect for many of the vaccinated they've already brought the subjective threat of COVID down to a completely acceptable level where they just want to carry on with their lives. I'm actually optimistic those parts of the planet with higher vaccination rates might be close to some sort of resolution where they can gradually allow the virus to circulate and not worry about it too much, maybe after next fall or so. The alternative is to double down and not settle for a level of risk we considered fine before this pandemic, an alternative which would deeply change society forever.

    I know it's probably overly pessimistic to entertain the thought that we vaccinated people might be as susceptible to (asymptomatic) infection from Delta as the unvaccinated, and equally infectious for equally long, unknowingly infecting others... I don't really expect that will prove to be the case but the fact is we don't know to what extent we are(n't) and that seems relevant in deciding what privileges we should enjoy and how much coercion should be used to get people to take the shots.

    • Like 1
  7. @rhmilo I'm not against the concept of mandatory vaccination in general, I'm saying in this case I'm on the fence concerning a mandate for the general population, and wary of giving too many privileges to the vaccinated and risk sending the message that they are no longer a risk to others, which we don't know. Living in a region with a very high voluntary vaccination rate, about as high as one could hope for I think, with severe disease and mortality seemingly under control for the time being, I say maybe wait a little while for the smoke to clear. For context, I believe the polio vaccine is the only one mandated in Belgium and in practice the rates are 90+% for many others (measles, tetanus, etcetera).

    @J3FF3R00 I appreciate the situation is much different when you're stuck at 50% and run a greater risk of unvaccinated patients clogging up your hospitals again and/or triggering strict measures that severely impact your daily life as well. The case for altruistic vaccination is much stronger in your environment than it is for the remaining unvaccinated minority here in Belgium. At least until it's established that the vaccinated are still less prone to infection or less infectuous with this Delta variant, and I don't think we're there yet.

    For the record it looks like the vaccines still do a phenomenal job of protecting against severe disease and death, but they do not live up to the expectations created by research done in the pre-Delta world. They will not stop the virus spreading and mutating anytime soon. So while they may end and prevent a lot of misery they are not going to end the disease. The sooner people are honestly informed about this the better.

    • Like 1
  8. While I think pretty much everyone 18 or over should probably go for the vaccine for their own sake, I think we're getting way ahead of ourselves with all the mandate and vaccine passport business.

    Sure as a member of the fully vaccinated group go ahead and give me the perks like avoiding testing and quarantine, I'm not complaining. But I haven't seen much convincing evidence that I'm really protecting anyone but myself. The vaccines are being way oversold at the moment to convince as many as possible to get them. Read the fine print and you'll see the data on protection from infection and transmission are mostly pre-Delta, and what we do know about Delta in the vaccinated is mixed at best.

    In Belgium we're headed for at least 85% vaccination among ages 18+, at those rates I really think hospital saturation is less of a concern and we need not demonize the unvaccinated minority or treat them as second-rate citizens, at least not until we know for a fact they are truly still more of a risk to others in the real world and not in some pre-Delta research paper.

    Besides, it seems obvious this shit is now going endemic for the foreseeable future, and given Delta's infectiousness it won't be long at all until everyone who doesn't die acquires some basic immunity one way or the other. I also don't think we are necessarily headed for endless booster shots in the general population, if we keep running into the virus at every turn that should be enough to keep us immune/it mostly harmless. We might see new or updated vaccines that are worth it, but for now the talk of boosters centers around the higher risk groups.

    • Like 2
  9. I undeniably had a bit of a Blue Tuesday a couple of days after my second shot, but already wasn't feeling 100% in the week leading up to it. First shot was just the stiff arm (which incidentally I didn't notice as much the second time around).

    One friend of mine felt under the weather for a week after his first dose, two others got fever and chills after the second one. Another friend's brother-in-law has caught the dreaded heart inflammation... but it was several weeks after his second dose, the dude was training for some kind of ultramarathon and I don't know the details, so make of that what you will. All Pfizer-BioNTech.

     

  10. Same, got 2 shots of Comirnaty 5 weeks apart, last one now two weeks ago, so guess I officially count towards the fully vaccinated stat now.

    To be honest I wouldn't mind running into delta at this point, for a relatively low-risk shot at the coveted hybrid immunity.

    • Farnsworth 1
  11. On 7/12/2021 at 5:18 PM, dr lopez said:

    not sure why you're subtweeting me... like i would somehow condone this awful, unacceptable behavior--  c'mon man lol. No need to take the high and mighty moral tone when we're just chatting shit in the football thread. Also, for the record, I'm a British citizen AND some random american ? 

    Indeed, that wasn't my best post. For several reasons. :facepalm:

  12. It's just a bit bro

    Drenched in irony

    The English are a truly exceptional people, the only ones on planet Earth who love being told how bad things are

    I understand this now, thanks to some random American explaining it to me on the wonderful website watmm.com

    • Haha 1
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