caze
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Everything posted by caze
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Who said anything about not insisting on evidence? I definitely don't think your interpretation is more likely, you're entitled to your opinion, but it's not backed up by any actual facts. The relatively levels of proof required say nothing about the likelihood of either proposition. It's far more likely he would want a Trump presidency because it would clearly serve his interests more (just for Trump's position on NATO if nothing else), and even if he fails he still gets plenty of benefit from meddling, so why not try? Of course just because he'd want to doesn't mean they actually have had direct connections, but I never claimed they definitely did, just that I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if they did.
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Gnostic themes wouldn't be a first for a SF thing, Philip K Dick was all about Gnosticism in his later works, quite explicitly in many cases (VALIS, the Divine Invasion).
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yep, the next election cycle will probably start a couple of weeks later, they seem to be getting longer each time. there's also the very real chance of trump dragging it out through the courts for months afterwards. so strap yourself in, it'll be a long and annoying ride.
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No, the question is 'is there any direct link between the trump campaign and the russians?', the answer from them seems to be 'we're investigating and so far haven't found anything', that doesn't count as fully answering the question. It still remains an open question, with enough evidence to suggest they keep looking. I never suggested otherwise, why is your supposition any more valid than mine? You seem to be discounting the possibility, or at least think it's unlikely, if it turned out there was some form of collusion going on it would really be one of the least surprising things ever.
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yeah, even if the dems manage to retake the senate (which will at least allow them to appoint at least one supreme court judge and lots of other judicial appointments that are currently being blocked), a republican congress means the house oversight committee could well be working overtime to undermine her every action. the one thing that might stop that from happening would be the implosion of the republican party after the election, especially if Trump and his wing refuses to go away after an election they lose badly (maybe the likes of Rob Portman, Kasich and other more sensible people in the party will try and do a deal with Clinton, as long as she concedes on certain issues).
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No it doesn't, note the part that says 'so far', that implies that there is a continuing investigation. That DNS server sending large amounts of data between a Trump server and a Russian bank is particularly suspicious, that does not sound like the normal operations for a DNS server (the excuse Trump's campaign gave), could easily be some kind of encrypted communication network piggybacking on a seemingly innocuous link. I wouldn't trust the FBIs technical abilities when it comes to this stuff either btw. Also, the assertion that the hacking "was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump" is not backed up by anything in that article, sounds like pure supposition to me, and it doesn't even make sense based on what they say themselves, because if Russia just wanted to "disrupt the integrity of the political system and undermine America’s standing in the world more broadly", obviously the best way to do that would be to help elect Donald Trump, a man almost universally despised in the western world outside of America. Even if there were no direct ties though, and there may not have been, that doesn't explain why Comey saw fit to inform Congress about some emails on Wieners laptop that don't appear to show any evidence of anything of interest, but not about their investigations into Russia. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/31/james-comey-fbi-clinton-trump-email-investigation-russia-hack
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?referer=https://t.co/xubUldjTqV Woah indeed I assume that was a sarcastic woah, but that article doesn't really answer any questions. The problem here, when talking about the FBI at least, is one of double standards, why was Comey so eager to inform congress of a non-event in the e-mail investigation, but refused to even admit there was any investigation into Trump's ties with Russia? The FBI shouldn't be taking sides in this, unless there's clear evidence of wrongdoing (on either side), where there's a case to answer in the courts, they need to keep their mouth shut, they have not done this, and even when explaining to congress why there was no case for Clinton to answer in court Comey went on to editorialise, which is completely beyond his remit. All very fishy imho.
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I'm guessing she was kidnapped by Wyatt, and will show up later when Ed Harris and Teddy catch up with him. I also think the two timelines thing is nonsense, there's only one. McPoyle and his douche-bag friend talked about Arnold killing himself a long time before they arrived, and so two time-lines wouldn't really make sense given Ford and Ed Harris' ages (though given the unknowns about when this stuff is happening, medical science, lifespans, etc, that doesn't completely rule it out I guess). I think the analysis scenes are happening linearly as well, but might not be happening IRL - Ford and Bernard (who I definitely don't think is an android clone of Arnold, lol, I'm pretty sure other people who would've worked there might find it a bit weird to work alongside an android clone of their former Boss who just killed himself) might just be interviewing them in VR (or alternatively in a backup copy of their bodies, no reason they couldn't have a remote desktop link between two host bodies so to speak - Ed Harris pointed out they're cheaper than the old models, would make sense to keep a few backups, when they activate the link the other host just appears to lose consciousness, like Dolores did at the orgy). As to Dolores being one of the first robots and not having nuts and bolts inside of her, easily explained by lots of upgrades, it's Dolores v. 6.4, presumably one of the most popular hosts so they would want to keep her around to keep the guests happy. Was very interesting to see Maeve talk with that lab tech at the end, she's been super confused and freaking out for the most part so far, but was totally collected there, presumably her bicameral over-mind has let her in on a lot more of what's going on. The secret 4G-dongle thingie was cool too, presumably that's got something to do with some kind of industrial espionage or something (attempts at a hostile takeover perhaps), will be nice to see some of the wider political goings on in the world (which they've only hinted at obliquely so far). I hope they give us at least one glimpse of the outside world before the end of the season.
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lol, the LGBT 5. his face is amazing in that pic.
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http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/fart-sparks-fire-during-surgery-in-japan-patient-seriously-burnt
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Independence Day 2 was fucking atrocious. One of the worst pieces of shit I've seen in a long time. Watched Sausage Party last week, was very meh.
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It means Brits being triggered by people speaking correctly (e.g. Pronouncing the letters at the end of words) I get triggered by yanks who don't pronounce the letters in the middle of words, like the f in fifth or the first r in forward.
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The Walking Dead - AMC TV Series (spoilers everywhere)
caze replied to Rubin Farr's topic in General Banter
I worry about this myself. videogames included. I worry to what effect it has on the youth particularly. And if it has any correlation to the particular violent acts they commit. i.e. mass shootings and such. there probably isn't any correlation, all the research done into it shows the opposite, violent crime has been trending downwards for a long time now. I guess it's possible that it could be going down faster if it wasn't for violent media, but there's no evidence to suggest that's the case. -
This is just good though.
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A good analysis of the undecided voters: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-are-the-undecided-voters/ At this late stage, with about 15% undecided voters in play, it's not looking like a feasible out for Trump, he'd have to outscore Clinton with them by more than a 60/40 split to have any chance. But when you look at it state by state it looks even less likely, seeing as there are only around 10% undecideds in Florida and North Carolina, and he needs both, so would probably need around 75% of them to break his way to win those states. Turnout will be far more important on the day than undecideds. Clinton's extra cash and the fact the she has far more operatives on the ground helping with get out the vote work means she should have the advantage there as well (as well as the advantages she has in new registrations and early voting). There's no doubt that Trump's base is very enthusiastic, so he starts in a decent place in terms of turnout, Clinton's unfavorability with mainstream Republicans and even some Democrats will also help him, but I don't think it will be enough, as long as Clinton can get most of the people who have said they're going to vote for her to vote for her, she should win comfortably.
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yeah, here's another moron: I predict that after the election, whenever her contract is next up for renewal, Fox has to scramble to offer her a massive bump to stop her moving to a bigger network.
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what? it's a tracking poll, i.e. it always includes the same respondents, so when it went to Clinton +1 in the previous poll it still included the skewed black demographic (it lists Trump's support among black voters as 18%, which is laughable). when you take into account this massive Trump skew (which a few weeks ago was giving him +5 and +6 in a couple of polls), having him hovering around +/- 1 isn't a sign of him gaining in the polls. Clinton still has a healthy lead in the polls, greater than the margin of error, and when broken down by state it has her comfortably leading in EC votes. All of the data from early voting and voter registrations backs this up too, with registered Democrats either outperforming Republicans, or eating into their usual leads from previous elections. Florida in particular is looking increasingly worrying for him, and he basically needs to win all of the swing states, he might win 2 out of 7 if he's lucky.
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that poll with him ahead is the one I mentioned before containing the single black trump supporter distortion.
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he's wearing a fucking camo hat now! http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-fight/index.html full-on fatigues next?
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I've heard a lot of people bring up the brexit polls as evidence not to get too complacent as well, this graph shows why the comparison is invalid: https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/790638388554661888/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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also re early voting in Florida, in previous elections that has heavily favoured republicans, but far less so this year, I heard the difference was only 1.7%, but was 5-6% in the last election*. That would lead you to think he's not going to win in Florida, where Clinton has been leading in the polls for the last number of weeks. * http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-clinton-florida-230275
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The main reason polls get things wrong is because they fail to correctly predict the turnout, as long the democratic turnout is high, Trump basically has no chance at this point. There is a smaller chance their demographic models are wrong, which could also affect the numbers (e.g. that LA Times tracking poll which had a single black respondent, who was a Trump supporter, so the poll was massively skewed in Trump's favour because it over-weighted his support amongst black folks), but given the sheer number of polls being done that's far less likely to be a problem (they've almost all been very closely aligned, and it's unlikely all the polsters' models are wrong, but not impossible I guess).
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The Walking Dead - AMC TV Series (spoilers everywhere)
caze replied to Rubin Farr's topic in General Banter
The opening 10-15 mins was terrible, with those stupid flashbacks of each character trying to trick you into thinking it was them that got killed, should have just opened with the brutality. Teasing motherfuckers. The bit with Rick imagining everyone else getting their heads bashed in as a means to spur him into action was also pretty dumb. Once they finally showed the main attraction though, and then the bit after when they drove back from their dumb little jaunt, it was pretty good. The brain damaged blubbering with the eye popping out was really well done, I think they took that directly from the comic IIRC. -
presumably he's talking about things like Adderall.
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http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/look-i-wish-i-were-better-also-54498
