'Global Warming's Terrifying New Math'

[ignatius]

On 6/16/2023 at 11:02 PM, iococoi said:

what goes up

must come down

this is only half the operator. we need a modulator then we'll have some FM and this shit will sound dope

[iococoi]

[iococoi]

 

[cichlisuite]

4 hours ago, iococoi said:

 

i try to understand, why all the individuals and organisations that are communicating these warnings, are not at the same time proposing actual measures. like how is there not an organisation connecting scientists from different fields across the world already (they had 6 years from the Paris Agreement at least), or even one university of world-status, sticking their heads together, do a mammoth-study, connect the dots, etc... and come up with a list: here, folks, this is what you can do, as a citizen, an individual, blabla, to start with, and be the example... and like why aren't there state universities and at least NGOs, offering (non-)formal education in matters of: climate basics, water cycles, soil, ecosystem, gardening, biology, fixing shit yourself, selling/buying used shit, conservation of basic everyday resources, etc etc... feature and push forward content creators that have this knowledge,... while they go lobby and campaign the shit out of politics, and use their knowledge and prestige to push the change.

so, all they do is repeat the same shit and keep telling how bad it is and how much worse will it get.

the only people i know, who had long before set on a path to be the least-consumers, are ordinary people who want to grow their own food, who have to work around all the bureaucracy and system-wide hurdles that always favor the plans of the corporations, and leave the work-willing, single citizen ignored and even prosecuted for exercising their own rights.

so why don't they play the ticking watch sound and thrill the decision-making suits in private and public sectors? because everybody gets paid, and wont move a finger until gets paid, and it's all fucking business

[zero]

^ seems like you answered most of your "why" questions in your post... bureaucracy preventing progress. changing things costs a ton of money. humans have a tendency of not agreeing on shit, prefer to argue/point fingers and get nothing done. you said it all there between the lines.

IMO getting all the end of the line consumers on board with changing our usage habits is futile, if the producers themselves don't comply. there are always work arounds once you move way up the chain, to avoid so called regulations that any environmental governance body enacts. spill a bunch of toxic shit in the ocean? get some public shaming that will be forgotten about sooner rather than later, pay a massive fine, make some fake ass announcement about making corporate changes...then keep on drilling whatever the fuck you want out of the planet to make a profit for your board of directors. yeah fairly simple example, but this seems to me what happens time and time again, to an extent. 

then you have the politics of the problem. a dip shit capitalist like trump, or similar ilk, coming to power, and behaving like a belligerent toddler, backing out of any agreements meant to help the environment. we know politicians love to play the whataboutism card. what about China? Russia? all the 3rd world countries that have totally corrupt governments, heads of state in it for the $ and power, nothing more. what are they doing about the environment? they are worse than us!

so yeah man, a global paradigm shift involving all the countries, citizenry, and resources to save the planet is absolutely what is needed. can that be done? I don't think so. why? way too many delusional human beings out there. the focus needs to be on re-adjusting everyone on this planet's view of reality, to think clearly about this issue. this involves selflessness though, and sadly I see the bulk of humanity heading the other direction toward selfishness. fuckin social media and selfie sticks. it's all for the gram. not for the planet. the fuckin FB tweeting gram, man...

[ignatius]

18 hours ago, cichlisuite said:

i try to understand, why all the individuals and organisations that are communicating these warnings, are not at the same time proposing actual measures.

but they are. there's videos of those kinds of talks in this thread. several people suggesting measures.. some even saying to dismantle free market capitalism etc.. but there's more bread and butter type suggestions/guidance being proposed as well.. it's just that no one in any position of power is really listening to them... they're too busy playing politics and doing things to protect the interests of their donors and doing whatever it takes to keep the status quo profitable.. aside from some green initiatives here or there or doing lip service to ideas they never embrace at a policy level. 

[iococoi]

additional

https://heated.world/p/climate-activists-are-not-coming

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by iococoi

[iococoi]

Quote

4th Of July May Have Been Earth’s Hottest Day On Record—Here’s The ‘So What?’

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2023/07/05/4th-of-july-may-have-been-earths-hottest-day-on-recordheres-the-so-what/?sh=429372b6742b

for future reference

Quote

By the way, 1 zettajoule is 10²¹ joules (1 ZJ = 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 J)

Edited July 6, 2023 by iococoi

[may be rude]

On 6/27/2023 at 12:04 PM, cichlisuite said:

i try to understand, why all the individuals and organisations that are communicating these warnings, are not at the same time proposing actual measures. like how is there not an organisation connecting scientists from different fields across the world already (they had 6 years from the Paris Agreement at least), or even one university of world-status, sticking their heads together, do a mammoth-study, connect the dots, etc... and come up with a list: here, folks, this is what you can do, as a citizen, an individual, blabla, to start with, and be the example... and like why aren't there state universities and at least NGOs, offering (non-)formal education in matters of: climate basics, water cycles, soil, ecosystem, gardening, biology, fixing shit yourself, selling/buying used shit, conservation of basic everyday resources, etc etc... feature and push forward content creators that have this knowledge,... while they go lobby and campaign the shit out of politics, and use their knowledge and prestige to push the change.

so, all they do is repeat the same shit and keep telling how bad it is and how much worse will it get.

the only people i know, who had long before set on a path to be the least-consumers, are ordinary people who want to grow their own food, who have to work around all the bureaucracy and system-wide hurdles that always favor the plans of the corporations, and leave the work-willing, single citizen ignored and even prosecuted for exercising their own rights.

so why don't they play the ticking watch sound and thrill the decision-making suits in private and public sectors? because everybody gets paid, and wont move a finger until gets paid, and it's all fucking business

 

i think you are assuming that nothing is happening where actually some stuff is happening. for example, bill gates did a book 2 years ago wherein he breaks down the carbon situation, the contributing industries, the feasible alternatives, and the relevant metrics. he does an analysis of gaps in technology and highlights where feasible actions exist. basically, this is a solvable problem, but it is a very challenging problem to solve, and the only way we will do it is if we collectively really try to do it. which is why i worry that we will reach the second half of this century and find that we have driven the car off a cliff. i see no reason to discount a scenario where chain reactions bring us to a melting of much of antaractica in the next century. just insane levels of climate change that would wreak utter havoc on civilization. mad max is on the table. the first step is awareness - people need to understand what is happening. it's horrific that big oil can pour money into disinfo factories to confuse the masses (see: the GOP and american right wing media). 

gates also started an organization and is connecting scientists from around the world, etc. systematically identifying the most potential for research areas and funding them.

around the same time he started focusing on that, i observed an influx of disinfo narratives going around about him

https://www.amazon.com/How-Avoid-Climate-Disaster-Breakthroughs/dp/059321577X

Edited July 6, 2023 by trying to be less rude

[ignatius]

[luke viia]

2 hours ago, ignatius said:

Larry Kudlowalski:

 

[ignatius]

 

[iococoi]

 

[Nebraska]

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[may be rude]

this is the kind of thing that sickens me to my stomach. my projection is that by mid century, humanity will be only starting to change course on greenhouse gas release. between now and then, i fear tipping points will be crossed that are truly difficult for us to even comprehend the consequences of, now. the depth of collective idiocy is all the way. people need to learn to take responsibility for not being fucking wrong. and vote. one of the best things anyone can do on this is vote.

 

 

 

Scientists detect sign that a crucial ocean current is near collapse

By Sarah Kaplan
July 25, 2023 at 11:02 a.m. EDT

The Atlantic Ocean’s sensitive circulation system has become slower and less resilient, according to a new analysis of 150 years of temperature data — raising the possibility that this crucial element of the climate system could collapse within the next few decades.

Scientists have long seen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, as one of the planet’s most vulnerable “tipping elements” — meaning the system could undergo an abrupt and irreversible change, with dramatic consequences for the rest of the globe. Under Earth’s current climate, this aquatic conveyor belt transports warm, salty water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor. But as rising global temperatures melt Arctic ice, the resulting influx of cold freshwater has thrown a wrench in the system — and could shut it down entirely.

The study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications suggests that continued warming will push the AMOC over its “tipping point” around the middle of this century. The shift would be as abrupt and irreversible as turning off a light switch, and it could lead to dramatic changes in weather on either side of the Atlantic.

“This is a really worrying result,” said Peter Ditlevsen, a climate physicist at the University of Copenhagen and lead author of the new study. “This is really showing we need a hard foot on the brake” of greenhouse gas emissions.

Ditlevsen’s analysis is at odds with the most recent report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which drew on multiple climate models and concluded with “medium confidence” that the AMOC will not fully collapse this century.

Other experts on the AMOC also cautioned that because the new study doesn’t present new observations of the entire ocean system — instead, it is extrapolating about the future based on past data from a limited region of the Atlantic — its conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt.

“The qualitative statement that AMOC has been losing stability in the last century remains true even taking all uncertainties into account,” said Niklas Boers, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “But the uncertainties are too high for a reliable estimate of the time of AMOC tipping.”

The new study adds to a growing body of evidence that this crucial ocean system is in peril. Since 2004, observations from a network of ocean buoys has showed the AMOC getting weaker — though the limited time frame of that data set makes it hard to establish a trend. Scientists have also analyzed multiple “proxy” indicators of the current’s strength, including microscopic organisms and tiny sediments from the seafloor, to show the system is in its weakest state in more than 1,000 years.

For their analysis, Peter Ditlevsen and his colleague Susanne Ditlevsen (who is Peter’s sister) examined records of sea surface temperatures going back to 1870. In recent years, they found, temperatures in the northernmost waters of the Atlantic have undergone bigger fluctuations and taken longer to return to normal. These are “early warning signals” that the AMOC is becoming critically unstable, the scientists said — like the increasingly wild wobbles before a tower of Jenga blocks starts to fall.

Susanne Ditlevsen, a statistician at the University of Copenhagen, then developed an advanced mathematical model to predict how much more wobbling the AMOC system can handle. The results suggest that the AMOC could collapse any time between now and 2095, and as early as 2025, the authors said.

The consequences would not be nearly as dire as they appear in the 2004 sci-fi film “The Day After Tomorrow,” in which a sudden shutdown of the current causes a flash freeze across the northern hemisphere. But it could lead to a drop in temperatures in northern Europe and elevated warming in the tropics, Peter Ditlevsen said, as well as stronger storms on the East Coast of North America.

Marilena Oltmanns, an oceanographer at the National Oceanography Center in Britain, noted in a statement that the temperatures in the north Atlantic are “only one part of a highly complex, dynamical system.” Though her own research on marine physics supports the Ditlevsens’ conclusion that this particular region could reach a tipping point this century, she is wary of linking that transition to a full-scale change in Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Yet the dangers of even a partial AMOC shutdown mean any indicators of instability are worth investigating, said Stefan Rahmstorf, another oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute who was not involved in the new study.

“As always in science, a single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches lead to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously,” he said. “The scientific evidence now is that we can’t even rule out crossing a tipping point already in the next decade or two.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/25/atlantic-ocean-amoc-climate-change/

 

 

 

more doom: 

https://mstdn.social/@timhollo@aus.social/110773598669124049

Edited July 25, 2023 by trying to be less rude

[Satans Little Helper]

Out of curiosity: lets say we (humanity) are on the Titanic. What is the situation we’re in?

1. Would you say we’ve already hit the iceberg and this boat is going to sink? It’s only a matter of time and how fast. (We’re already doomed scenario)
2. Or would you say we’re still able to steer away from the iceberg and minimize the damage in the event we can’t completely avoid it? And keep the whole thing afloat (We can still save ourselves from potential doom scenario)
3. Or, we’ve hit a bunch of icebergs already, but the hull is still fine. We might hit a bunch more, but the boat is strong enough. It’s just going to be a bumpy ride. (The boat wont sink. There are just difficult times ahead. scenario)

4. Shut up. I’m on the sundeck getting some color. It’s beautiful outside. Enjoy the weather! (Nothing going on scenario)

Maybe a poll would be better. I’m curious where everyone is on this. And bonus question: where would you put the public opinion? 

Was reading up on the elections in Spain and Italy. And why the political campaigns of the various parties in both countries avoided climate change as a topic. Despite the local reality of extreme heatwaves, the general public in both countries dont seem interested in national policies to improve sustainability. In both countries it was political suicide to campaign on green policies. At least, that is what was supposed to be going on in those countries.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Satans Little Helper

[ignatius]

4 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

Out of curiosity: lets say we (humanity) are on the Titanic. What is the situation we’re in?

1. Would you say we’ve already hit the iceberg and this boat is going to sink? It’s only a matter of time and how fast. (We’re already doomed scenario)
2. Or would you say we’re still able to steer away from the iceberg and minimize the damage in the event we can’t completely avoid it? And keep the whole thing afloat (We can still save ourselves from potential doom scenario)
3. Or, we’ve hit a bunch of icebergs already, but the hull is still fine. We might hit a bunch more, but the boat is strong enough. It’s just going to be a bumpy ride. (The boat wont sink. There are just difficult times ahead. scenario)

4. Shut up. I’m on the sundeck getting some color. It’s beautiful outside. Enjoy the weather! (Nothing going on scenario)

Maybe a poll would be better. I’m curious where everyone is on this. And bonus question: where would you put the public opinion? 

Was reading up on the elections in Spain and Italy. And why the political campaigns of the various parties in both countries avoided climate change as a topic. Despite the local reality of extreme heatwaves, the general public in both countries dont seem interested in national policies to improve sustainability. In both countries it was political suicide to campaign on green policies. At least, that is what was supposed to be going on in those countries.

relatively speaking, no one on the boat knows what's going on except a handful of people. everyone else is in their state rooms asleep or in the bowels of the ship throwing up on each other or whatever.. some people are nervous with the anxiety about being on the ship at all.. some look over the rails and and see something in the distance.. "Wtf is that?"

the band is smoking and moving some deck chairs around... 

but. .yeah. .we've already hit some ice bergs and the captain is starting to sweat while others on the bridge are shitting their pants.. 

hmm.. yeah.. if the ship can be slowed down and turned it might not sink or maybe will only lose power and drift a while and a bunch of people will get diarheehaw and become dehydrated and die or starve etc.. and some people in the upper decks will eat the poors to survive... 

or aliens will... something

[luke viia]

3 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

Out of curiosity: lets say we (humanity) are on the Titanic. What is the situation we’re in?

1. Would you say we’ve already hit the iceberg and this boat is going to sink? It’s only a matter of time and how fast. (We’re already doomed scenario)
2. Or would you say we’re still able to steer away from the iceberg and minimize the damage in the event we can’t completely avoid it? And keep the whole thing afloat (We can still save ourselves from potential doom scenario)
3. Or, we’ve hit a bunch of icebergs already, but the hull is still fine. We might hit a bunch more, but the boat is strong enough. It’s just going to be a bumpy ride. (The boat wont sink. There are just difficult times ahead. scenario)

4. Shut up. I’m on the sundeck getting some color. It’s beautiful outside. Enjoy the weather! (Nothing going on scenario)

Maybe a poll would be better. I’m curious where everyone is on this. And bonus question: where would you put the public opinion? 

Was reading up on the elections in Spain and Italy. And why the political campaigns of the various parties in both countries avoided climate change as a topic. Despite the local reality of extreme heatwaves, the general public in both countries dont seem interested in national policies to improve sustainability. In both countries it was political suicide to campaign on green policies. At least, that is what was supposed to be going on in those countries.

1. we've hit the iceberg. as far as I'm concerned, there's no doubting this. climate moves way slower than we do and its reactions don't line up with our lifespans. the tipping points (that @trying to be less rude mentioned, for instance) are already happening / have happened / are going to continue happening. we're causing an enormous extinction, and yes they happen without us too, but this one is on our species and will drastically disrupt what we know & expect of the natural world. whatever we consider the current Western way of life, it will end or drastically change within our or our children's lifetimes. our society is currently on life support, and it needs to be in hospice care. we should be in the mindset of managing a dying civilization, not pretending it can live forever and using up exorbitant amounts of natural resources to continue living in a way that clearly has to end. 

[ignatius]

1 hour ago, luke viia said:

we should be in the mindset of managing a dying civilization

roxanol for everyone!  hospice is about making everyone comfortable and managing symptoms and not trying to fix the disease...maybe managing the symptoms includes trying to fuck up the planet less for whatever comes next to take over after we're gone.. and redistributing wealth and giving people healthcare and making an effort to reduce the inequities of existence on the planet.

and maybe some really funny stuff.. like forcing Bezos to get weird hair plugs so he just looks bizarre and grows a massive mop. 

[luke viia]

14 minutes ago, ignatius said:

roxanol for everyone!  hospice is about making everyone comfortable and managing symptoms and not trying to fix the disease...maybe managing the symptoms includes trying to fuck up the planet less for whatever comes next to take over after we're gone.. and redistributing wealth and giving people healthcare and making an effort to reduce the inequities of existence on the planet.

and maybe some really funny stuff.. like forcing Bezos to get weird hair plugs so he just looks bizarre and grows a massive mop. 

yeah by hospice I basically meant acknowledging that this *gestures at everything* is dying instead of pretending we can keep modernity alive forever (by way of environmentally harmful "buy some time" fixes like fracking and shale oil digging etc, the equivalent of giving a terminally ill patient an experimental drug that causes horrible symptoms but keeps them alive for a few more months)

not so much making everyone comfortable, but yeah

managing the symptoms

and all the funny stuff pls

Edited July 26, 2023 by luke viia

[DyeMyBlueBlack]

Imagine a hurricane… now imagine a hurricane if the water were 101 deg F [38c] (I saw water temp is usually 80F [27c] around Florida)

Edit: iococoi reminded me of centigrade

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by DyeMyBlueBlack

[iococoi]

16 minutes ago, DyeMyBlueBlack said:

101 deg F

for the °C people

Quote

38.33333

[Satans Little Helper]

2 hours ago, luke viia said:

whatever we consider the current Western way of life, it will end or drastically change within our or our children's lifetimes.

We have to change our ways regardless though. And that could also be for the better, right? In the sense that we need to be more conscious of our global impact and act accordingly. Or sustainable, if you will.

Personally, I'm switching between the doom-scenario (we're too late to save the ship) and the bumpy ride scenario (ship keeps going through rougher waters). Depending on the last information. And whatever the reality, it doesn't make sense to panic or outrage or worry or become too emotional and do silly stuff. Just be more conscious as an individual. With all the imperfections that come with it. And help getting the ship in the right direction where possible. Hoping others will join. And if they don't, I might be wrong. Because I don't have all the answers. Nobody has. Even the captain on the ship. 

Spiritually, I guess I'm more a bumpy ride person. Go with the flow. (even if I could believe we're doomed)

[DyeMyBlueBlack]

23 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

We have to change our ways regardless though. And that could also be for the better, right? In the sense that we need to be more conscious of our global impact and act accordingly. Or sustainable, if you will.

Personally, I'm switching between the doom-scenario (we're too late to save the ship) and the bumpy ride scenario (ship keeps going through rougher waters). Depending on the last information. And whatever the reality, it doesn't make sense to panic or outrage or worry or become too emotional and do silly stuff. Just be more conscious as an individual. With all the imperfections that come with it. And help getting the ship in the right direction where possible. Hoping others will join. And if they don't, I might be wrong. Because I don't have all the answers. Nobody has. Even the captain on the ship. 

Spiritually, I guess I'm more a bumpy ride person. Go with the flow. (even if I could believe we're doomed)

Well… nothing we can do personally about pollution in the grand sense. Corporations are doing a great job convincing the average person it comes down to them cutting down on XYZ

[luke viia]

43 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

We have to change our ways regardless though. And that could also be for the better, right?

changing our ways would def be for the better - unfortunately 'our ways' (read: the way of business) seems to be a huge addiction to capital, promised (but typically unfulfilled) satisfaction & meaning through products and the comforts we believe they will sustain, etc. 

43 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

Personally, I'm switching between the doom-scenario (we're too late to save the ship) and the bumpy ride scenario (ship keeps going through rougher waters)

if the ship keeps going through rougher waters - and the ship is causing the storm, as it were - what hope is there but to try to land on some safe shore? why insist on continuing to sail? 

43 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

whatever the reality, it doesn't make sense to panic or outrage or worry or become too emotional and do silly stuff.

agreed, but: if panic & outrage & worry are the only catalysts that cause true change, then they are necessary

43 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

Just be more conscious as an individual.

helpful for sure, but sadly ultimately not a solution. I say this with ~15 years of work experience in construction waste diversion (architectural salvage & reclamation - no matter how many thousands of tons of material we saved, it barely qualified as a drop in the bucket. took me a long time to accept that...)

43 minutes ago, Satans Little Helper said:

Because I don't have all the answers. Nobody has. Even the captain on the ship. 

I think this is where the ship analogy kinda falls apart: there is no captain. and that makes mutiny far more difficult

Edited July 26, 2023 by luke viia