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Now That Trump's President... (not any more!)


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Immunity given to one of Hilary's IT bros. She may be toast

What's going on here?

Edit: Oh shit, this might huge

Nanope. I mean I looks good on the face of it, but I'm sure he doesn't want to have an accident in a light aircraft.

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Immunity given to one of Hilary's IT bros. She may be toast

What's going on here?

Edit: Oh shit, this might huge

Nanope. I mean I looks good on the face of it, but I'm sure he doesn't want to have an accident in a light aircraft.

 

 

it is a huge story but it isn't - short of a major candidate making a snuff film or something I really can't think of a scandal that will deflate either HC or Trump

 

this race is reminding me of the LePen vs Chirac election of 2002, where the fanatic was defeated when the majority of voters decided to go with a candidate they didn't like but rather have in office

 

or Trump might go into Ross Perot territory and break off as a 3rd candidate that ensures a Dem win - although IMO Perot was a lot more sincere and less dangerous - more of a Ron Paul-esque novelty candidate with out there economic ideas but meant well, and wasn't nasty or mean-spirited

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man, i stepped into a McD's for the first time in years today and I swore you had mispelled McCafe for .33 of a second. the poison takes hold so quickly.

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Over the weekend Louis CK and, oddly enough, Glenn Beck both compared Trump to Hitler pre-WWII (his candidacy in 1929 specifically) and they both made valid points imo, even though I don't care for Beck at all. Both white supremacist groups and the anti-Semitic Nation of Islam have praised Trump. Maybe it's finally time Godwin's Law is given a hiatus?

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Over the weekend Louis CK and, oddly enough, Glenn Beck both compared Trump to Hitler pre-WWII (his candidacy in 1929 specifically) and they both made valid points imo, even though I don't care for Beck at all. Both white supremacist groups and the anti-Semitic Nation of Islam have praised Trump. Maybe it's finally time Godwin's Law is given a hiatus?

GOdlXdi.jpg

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all of the polls had bernie behind in michigan by about 25%, literally polls from a few hours ago. he's currently at 50% vs clington's 47%, if this trend continues he's gonna have a good chance of scoring the nom.

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all of the polls had bernie behind in michigan by about 25%, literally polls from a few hours ago. he's currently at 50% vs clington's 47%, if this trend continues he's gonna have a good chance of scoring the nom.

 

nah, they're just splitting the delegates in michigan. hillary is 80% in the other race, bernie would need to start winning the other states by similar margins to make up the difference. also, apparently the michigan results so far don't include detroit, so it could be that once the black vote is in hillary will pull out ahead again by a decent margin (though it's unlikely that it'll be by the predicted margin, bernie does seem to be doing better among black voters there than in previous states).

Edited by caze
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yes, detroit just took a dump on bernie. but he's still got it, the disappearance of the 25% clington lead in the polls is the big deal, it's really gonna change the narrative in the media.

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it's really gonna change the narrative in the media.

*shudders*

 

I wish Bernie had a real shot, but he doesn't. His best bet is to stick it out to hopefully make some gains in showing that someone that 'radical' has a lot more support than expected. I'm mostly hoping for some actual change in the general political climate and maybemaybemaybe a break from the two-party system that has more than stayed it's welcome.

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Yeah Michigan was a good win for Sanders. California is going to be an interesting state - and I assume the Pacific Northwest is all about Bernie.

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clington basically ran out of southern states that gave her big advantages, which are the reason for her current lead. there's still n.carolina where she's gonna win for sure and possibly florida (i think bernie will put a lot of effort into it) but after that it's basically bernielands.

i think he has a really good chance now.

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When Eugene is being optimistic about something then it makes me feel like there is REAL reason to be optimistic.

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clington basically ran out of southern states that gave her big advantages, which are the reason for her current lead. there's still n.carolina where she's gonna win for sure and possibly florida (i think bernie will put a lot of effort into it) but after that it's basically bernielands.

i think he has a really good chance now.

 

Clinton has a 650 delegate lead when you include the superdelegates (a 205 lead without), it's not enough for Bernie to win all the northern states, he has to do so by significant margins, 60% of the remaining delegates to be precise. Hillary's popularity amongst black and hispanic voters is likely to see her win Florida, though maybe not now by margins that you would have predicted a week ago, and even if she lost, it would not be by a significant amount - and Florida has a big delegate count (so that 60% is likely to increase before it decreases), only NY and California have more, and the latter's large Hispanic population will likely be a big plus for Hillary as well (and I think she might do better with whites there than on the east coast anyway). One hope for him might be that the California primary is one of the last ones, so if he's still in with a chance at that point and has been building up momentum he could win California by a decent margin and squeak over the line. I think the best chance for him though is if there's some big scandal for Hillary which causes the superdelegates to change their position (like the FBI thing blowing up maybe).

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

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you're no supposed to count supers at this point, they usually switch according to the popular vote.

 

california will definitely go to bernie, even a poll from january before anyone knew him was giving him 35% compared to clington's 46. berkeley will destroy everything in its path for bernie.

 

if he does relatively well or just not lose bad on 15th (and there's no reason to lose with oh,il and missouri) it's a pretty clear path to victory from then on.

 

the thing about bernie is that time is absolutely on his side, clington is the default candidate that is extremely well known, so the only thing it can go with time is that people switch from her to bernie as they get to know him, there's absolutely no movement other way around unless he fucks up somehow.

Edited by eugene
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