caze Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 you're no supposed to count supers at this point, they usually switch according to the popular vote. california will definitely go to bernie, even a poll from january before anyone knew him was giving him 35% compared to clington's 46. berkeley will destroy everything in its path for bernie. if he does relatively well or just not lose bad on 15th (and there's no reason to lose with oh,il and missouri) it's a pretty clear path to victory from then on. the thing about bernie is that time is absolutely on his side, clington is the default candidate that is extremely well known, so the only thing it can go with time is that people switch from her to bernie as they get to know him, there's absolutely no movement other way around unless he fucks up somehow. if the popular vote ends up close the superdelegates who have pledged for Clinton will remain with her, baring some scandal. Bernie has a good chance of winning California, but due to the size of the delegate count, if it's close, it won't be much of a win for him. Clinton is still polling with a significant lead in Illinois and Ohio, if the Michigan polling errors were a one off (possible due to the fact the polling stopped before the last debate) then he would need to win both of them to stand any chance. it's also silly to predict that only Bernie can gain in support from now on, Clinton has been around the block a long time, would be incredibly naive to rule her out at this point. another interesting fact, despite the polling upset last night, Sanders is currently behind where fivethirtyeight predicted he'd be at at this stage on pledged delegates (Clinton has won bigger margins than predicted overall so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eugene Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 he doesn't even need to win 15th of march states, just not lose them too bad. pretty much everything after 15th is very bernie friendly with the exception of new york maybe which i bet will be kinda even, and it totals about 2000 delegates. it's also silly to predict that only Bernie can gain in support from now on, Clinton has been around the block a long time, would be incredibly naive to rule her out at this point. that's exactly why it's reasonable to assume that she can only lose support, she doesn't have anything new to offer, she was simply the default dem candidate for the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auxien Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/?ex_cid=538fb Bernie Sanders might do even better than predicted, but unless there are a lot of upsets nearing what we saw (which is quite unlikely) then he'll still not have much of a shot at the nom. As caze said up there, if he wants the nom then Clinton has to have a huge scandal pop up, and soon. Which is of course possible/likely, I'm sure the Republicans have something up their sleeves they've been waiting to spring at the right moment. sent using magic space waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eugene Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 (edited) he had upsets in most states except south, only now media focused on michigan because it was more of a big deal, for example: kansas - last poll 33 vs 23 for clington - sanders won by 35% oklahoma - poll average - 43 vs 41 for clington - sanders won by 10% minnestoa - last poll 59 vs 25 for clington - sanders win by 23% colorado - last poll (kinda old though) 55 vs 27 for clington - sanders won by 18% i use this for polls info: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls Edited March 9, 2016 by eugene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nebraska Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 https://youtu.be/gNf6q-THvTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nebraska Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 Donald Trump responds when asked whether his use of vulgar words, highlighted in a critical new ad, is presidential https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/707940744644812800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maitake Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Well... I don't disagree per say.. Whiny little shits! Cunt Ass Shit Mr. President Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auxien Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Donald Trump responds when asked whether his use of vulgar words, highlighted in a critical new ad, is presidential https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/707940744644812800 I almost can't believe that I'm still surprised at how much of an up-his-own-ass fool Trump is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail Sagan Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobDobalina Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 looooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshuatxuk Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 https://youtu.be/gNf6q-THvTE This guy is a gem. dem bangs / dat fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usagi Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 wololo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
may be rude Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/?ex_cid=538fb Bernie Sanders might do even better than predicted, but unless there are a lot of upsets nearing what we saw (which is quite unlikely) then he'll still not have much of a shot at the nom. As caze said up there, if he wants the nom then Clinton has to have a huge scandal pop up, and soon. Which is of course possible/likely, I'm sure the Republicans have something up their sleeves they've been waiting to spring at the right moment. sent using magic space waves the republicans know they lost this one no matter what. if clinton and sanders both died then biden would step in and the republicans would still loose because i could pick the name of a garbage man out of a hat who would be better than the republican contenders. if anything they prefer clinton because their propaganda will stick against her. they will churn out oceans of empty rhetoric and then try for 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweepstakes Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 https://youtu.be/gNf6q-THvTE This guy is a gem. dem bangs / dat fringe FLOL the article is even better than the video... the GOP is a god damn shambles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nebraska Posted March 11, 2016 Author Share Posted March 11, 2016 can anyone explain why all republicans are so pro-israel? it's almost maniacal to the point i start to feel pro palestine (i'm not though) https://youtu.be/I4cn5gNfjfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LimpyLoo Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 (edited) IMO it's silly to be "pro-" one or the other: One is a country based on 'God promised us this land and we're not gonna budge no matter what' (and when it finally gets itself a sensible leader that says "hey let's maybe give up some land for the sake of peace"...homeboy gets assassinated) And the other is...well, just read the Hamas Charter So yeah, both countries are deluded theocracies Edited March 11, 2016 by LimpyLoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke viia Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 am I the only one loling every time eugene writes clington? i hope not [memes internally] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LimpyLoo Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Can someone shop a Hillary Clinton klingon? Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshuatxuk Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 can anyone explain why all republicans are so pro-israel? it's almost maniacal to the point i start to feel pro palestine (i'm not though) they are in rhetoric but in policy not so much - Romney IIRC wasn't fervently pro-Israel as much as say Gingrich or any of the other relgious right nuts. 2016 could be different, Cruz something like we need to make Jerusleum Israel 100% to which I reply "it's not our goddamn fucking responsibility to even decide that, let alone get involved" Bush was pro-Israel and appeased Sharon's policies a lot but he also was very focused on a peace plan and establishing a Palestinian state. He even openly questioned the decisions of the IDF during the 2006 Lebanon conflict, something a GOP candidate wouldn't even dare utter out loud in public. much of the deterioration of Israeli-Palestinian relations has been under Obama - the truth is there's no Democratic, even very liberal ones, who have expressed very strong words for Palestine or against Israel. I assure Clinton is about as pro-Israel as any MOR GOP candidate. Sanders is probably more moderate. Ron Paul is a huge exception though - he's one of the few who has been very hands off the middle east in general. IMO it's silly to be "pro-" one or the other: One is a country based on 'God promised us this land and we're not gonna budge no matter what' (and when it finally gets itself a sensible leader that says "hey let's maybe give up some land for the sake of peace"...homeboy gets assassinated) And the other is...well, just read the Hamas Charter So yeah, both countries are deluded theocracies I disagree with that last part, that's a more recent distraction. The kicker though is that both have big secular communities that have essentially be sidelined from the political majority and bulk of policy making (Israel) or ostracized completely (Gaza, West Bank). Zionism originally was very diverse in political/philosophical thought (there were socialist Zionists, Zionists who actually wanted to settle in South Africa or another then uninhabited/ underpopulated areas, etc.) and predated WW2. Even now Israel has citizens who are openly atheist or agnostic. In fact the religious priorities of both Palestinian and Israeli nationalism were extremely low after WW2. Israel didn't even have access to the Wailing Wall until the 1967 war. Palestinian terrorist groups and the PLO were socialist and marxist driven and aligned with other left-wing terror cells. The religious extremism is a far more recent development, the 80s onward mostly. And in the US you have literally one of the most vicious and tenacious lobbies in existence, the Zionist religious right Christians who are less concerned about a peaceful existence of Israel and Palestine (which I'm for) and more concerned about their delusional and insane believe that the end times will be ushered in via the world powers going to war in the Holy Lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goDel Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 ^^^top post can anyone explain why all republicans are so pro-israel? it's almost maniacal to the point i start to feel pro palestine (i'm not though Pro - israel also means: votes from the pro-israel crowd. And more important, funding from the rich pro-israel crowd. As you already know: if there are some potentially huge donators, then there's political importance. Politicians simply need friends with money to stay in office nowadays. Although someone like Trump is a bit of an exception, although not entirely. (As you can tell from his brown nosing all the people who have recently endorsed him. Suddenly those people are all experts in one field or another. So endorsing Trump potentially means political power for those who endorse him. And Trump can sell himself as a viable option for presidency: having people with political experience is just as good even if he has none himself. It's funny because its so transparent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eugene Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auxien Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 can anyone explain why all republicans are so pro-israel? it's almost maniacal to the point i start to feel pro palestine (i'm not though) https://youtu.be/I4cn5gNfjfw The fervor with which a subset of the population will defend Israel is something that's intrigued me for the past decade as it's grown more public. I'm still not entirely sure, so I'll lay out some facts and some speculation separately....maybe someone has done the research and y'all can point me in that direction. Facts: there's a growing underground movement in churches (US South, not sure if it extends elsewhere) of being very pro-Israel; my town and many others in my state are spattered with "I Stand With Israel!" signs that usually feature an American flag on them. Israel's trustworthiness as an American ally had come under political scrutiny by some camps over the past decade for varying reasons; publicly they have seen less support for their problems with Palestine (at least it seems so from an American's POV). Speculation: Israel is the holy land of Jesus/where the apocalypse will find its rooting, and so even though the Jewish religion does not worship Jesus, American Christians see Jerusalem as an incorruptible place; by extension they see the Jews as brethren (the Bible of course States that the Jews are God's chosen people). Growing backlash worldwide and in the US has Israel's motives and tactics under question (from their perspective by liberals! Boo!), and because of what I mentioned before the Christian Right feels the need to show their support which is also great to them because fuck liberals and anything they say just because. And of course by that reasoning conservative politicians will stand on a stage and boast about Israel just because the voters think it essentially means they're pro-Xian/anti-liberal. That's the best I've been able to figure out at least. Would love to hear more facts about this, because it's quite odd to me. sent using magic space waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zkom Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 There seems to be some sort of pro-Israel movement also within the Christian fundamentalists here in Finland. The public Christian TV channel keeps broadcasting Israeli news for example. I don't know if it's just something they are copying from the Evangelicals in the US or what's going on, but it's not just an American thing definitely. There's also this older anti-Semitic branch of Christian nutters that are spouting the usual stuff about Jewish conspiracies and whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usagi Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 (edited) watching this clip fills me with indiscriminate revulsion. it should be scored by something like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LtJV60xVbA I did lol at the "Trump puts ketchup on his hot dog" sign though. Edited March 12, 2016 by usagi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bitroast Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 this is your brain watching the VIOLENCE AT TRUMP RALLY video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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