BCM Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 so which one's meant to be better? racing car is pretty exciting tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloman Tump Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Racing car with a beer sounds quite appealing. Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublename Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Sharing a bed is awful a lot of the time, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/if-youre-being-a-tax-haven-we-only-really-want-london-say-investors-20170118120390 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The current state of play seems to lean towards hard Brexit (with the Labour shadow minister for brexit saying it means the opposite for some bizarre reason). Assuming article 50 is triggered on time - which it might not be, there's only a small chance the likely parliament vote to trigger it (still waiting on the supreme court judgement there) will go against the government, but there are also two other court actions pending which might scupper it, and it might be interesting that the NI executive has collapsed meaning it won't have a say on it at all, and that was something that was promised by the government, but having said all that it's still likely to go ahead, so... There will then be two years of negotiations to disentangle the UK from the EU, lots of bills will need to be drafted, lots of law will need need to be changed, the UK's bill for outstanding liabilities to the EU will need to be calculated (> €50b probably) and a repayment scheme worked out. During that time they'll also work out an interim arrangement (which will probably look much like the status quo) which will last from the end of the two year period until at least the next UK election in 2020, if not a bit longer, this will allow them time to complete any post-brexit deal. May seems to be under the illusion that the post-brexit deal will be able to be negotiated during that two year period (and that a full plan can be offered up to parliament for a vote), everyone in the EU seems to be saying talks on that can only proceed after the UK has left, that there's already too much to discuss on how to actually dissolve the relationship. So it seems likely that any post brexit negotiation vote in parliament will be pretty limited in scope. So then would come the trade deal negotiations, which could take five years to hammer out, and any single member state can veto it. May has taken membership of the single market off the table, and also seems to be saying that they won't be in the customs union either (she said something about a possible associate member status with the customs union, but without two key aspects of it, but that seems incredibly unlikely to be agreed by the EU, and would probably violate WTO rules anyway). She was also clear that retaining UK legal sovereignty was non negotiable. All that leaves very little room for negotiation for access to the single market, the best they could hope for would be limited tariff reduction, any significant integration with the single market would at a minimum require adopting large amounts of EU law (on health and safety, standards, conflict resolution, etc.), but she seems to be ruling that out, and probably require other concessions on the other three elements of the single market (people, services and capital, and the UK seems unwilling to compromise on free movement of people as well). Passporting for the City will also lapse and if London wants to get a similar arrangement back it will need to pay for it, and also (the main sticking point again) adopt significant EU law. The EU has been adamant that the four elements of the single market are indivisible, it's really hard to see how there can be any significant access for the UK to the single market. May seems to be suggesting then that such a poor deal would not be accepted by them, and so after the interim arrangement lapses they'd just revert to using WTO rules, and would have to implement a very low tax (Singapore style) system in order to prevent the total destruction of the financial system. This won't scare the EU at all though, it'll just help the UK stem the hemorrhaging, they're definitely going to lose some of the financial sector to Dublin, Frankfurt, and Paris (and possibly even Edinburgh in a newly independent Scotland), the only question is do they lose a lot, or a huge amount? All of that might be enough to keep London going, and the south of England in general, but the rest of the country will be totally screwed in that situation. Unemployment would start going back up pretty quickly, inflation would increase (it's already been steadily increasing since the referendum) and wages would decrease, the Tories won't last very long if that comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chenGOD Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yeah you guys are fucked. Time for a referendum. Aren't you Irish Caze? Might be time to think about a relocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yeah, I can head home if shit gets bad pretty easily. London will probably be fine whatever happens though, and most of my business is here (though I can do my work from Dublin just as easily). To be honest I'd prefer to move home, but due to various factors my current situation is preferable to what I could have back home right now. That calculus could well change in the next five years though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tricone RC Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Agree, I can see this exasperating the London/not London divide even more. London can prob continue to eke out an existence from the financial biz and, perhaps- ever-appreciating housing thanks to a steady influx of oligarchs and sheikhs. The rest of the country barely has anything going for it anyway (not even Scotland really, now the North Sea is on its way out) and I wouldn't be surprised if non-London-land gets hit fucking hard by the loss of business from a Hard Brexit and its ramifications also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zkom Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I have a friend who's a researcher in Liverpool and their team is having hard time finding people to move to UK to work with them and they can't find qualified people from within UK. My friend is also considering moving out. It might be that EU universities benefit on Brexit with the top researchers moving back to mainland. Might also happen with the US if the immigration gets really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 One of the interesting things to come up from all of this is a resurgence in talk of Irish re-unification. I was never particularly in favor of that before, well, I was in principle, but in practice not until it had a strong majority in the north, but I could see things changing there a lot in the coming years, especially if the current corruption scandal with the DUP manages to become more important than some of the sectarian nonsense that still exists up there. NI was also the recipient of significant EU funding, the UK ekeing out a living as a tax haven isn't going to allow them to replace all of that. And if there are barriers to trade and movement with the rest of Ireland then things could get pretty dodgy up there. Talk of completely leaving the customs union would put certain parts the Good Friday agreement into doubt, and if that fell apart things could get bad again pretty quickly. May talked about ensuring that didn't happen being a priority, but made no mention about how exactly we would go about achieving it. One of the things being suggested at the moment is joint rule by both the UK and Ireland (not sure how that would be workable though, or something the unionists would agree to), and assuming the coming Stormont elections fail to produce a government (a real possibility) it's either that or back to direct rule again, but I've also seen a couple of articles written by UK folk recently talking about reunification. In the medium to long term economic concerns could well become far more important than outdated identity nonsense, especially amongst a generation of people who grew up after the troubles had ended, and who by a large majority voted to remain in the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwmbrancity Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 the DUP, UVF & various other forms of cuntery would never, ever go 4 it, their "No Surrender" Paisley-era bs would soon clash with anything that encroached on their right to be "the British in Ulster" i've joint Brit-Eire citizenship & its typical of the assholes who inhabit certain provinces and their inbred one-eyed buffoonery to have leaped b4 looking where's the opposition in all this? Corbyn had the entire Tory establishment publicly splitting over the referendum, factions infighting, even Cameron went & what did he do? sweet-f.a. ......and any1 who believes thats Tory media bias needs a fuckin good slap we've just, just started to edge out of an economic nightmare post-2008 and now this this nation is one big eejut jacking off in public dribbling bodily fluids all over itself & our neighbours & it requires a long, focused word with itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goDel Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 First bank presented plans to relocate people from london to eu: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-hsbc-bank-move-20-per-cent-fifth-london-banking-operations-paris-chief-executive-a7532711.html Gulliver said HSBC will “proceed quite slowly” after May confirmed Tuesday that Britain will leave the European Union’s single market. He repeated his pre-Brexit estimate that 1,000 jobs at the bank’s offices in London are involved with products covered by EU legislation, which probably need to move to France when the UK leaves the single market. “Some of our fellow bankers have to make decisions quickly” if they don’t have continental subsidiaries like CCF, the French commercial bank HSBC bought in the previous decade, he said. Gulliver’s estimate of a 20 per cent Brexit revenue exodus from London matches that of Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam. In September, Thiam said as much as one-fifth of the volume in the bank’s London operations could be affected by the loss of EU passporting rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Lloyds also already have plans for opening up a subsidiary in the EU, the only question is how many staff it will require to run (which will depend on the final deal and EU regulations - i.e. they'll try and get away with doing as much of the work in the UK still, but EU regs mean they'll need to have certain staffing numbers relative to the business they do and so on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloman Tump Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Are banks still a good milestone for job numbers? We do it all online now right, when was the last time you wrote out a cheque and went into a bank branch? Bank job numbers have been on a downward curve for a while now, regardless of Brexit. But yep, I agree this is relocation not losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Are banks still a good milestone for job numbers? We do it all online now right, when was the last time you wrote out a cheque and went into a bank branch? Bank job numbers have been on a downward curve for a while now, regardless of Brexit. But yep, I agree this is relocation not losses. we're not talking about bank branch jobs here, but office jobs in financial services, which represent about a third of the UK's GDP. and like I said, the numbers required will be related to regulation, so it doesn't matter that everyone works online now, if you want to open a financial services company in the EU there are all kinds of regulations about how much staff you have and what kind of work they need to do (you can't just open up a skeleton office but really do all the work back in the UK - though they'll try and do this as far as they can get away with it). also, the UK will lose the tax revenue for whatever sales these newly opened subsidiaries end up doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeAreOceans Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Agree, I can see this exasperating the London/not London divide even more. London can prob continue to eke out an existence from the financial biz and, perhaps- ever-appreciating housing thanks to a steady influx of oligarchs and sheikhs. The rest of the country barely has anything going for it anyway (not even Scotland really, now the North Sea is on its way out) and I wouldn't be surprised if non-London-land gets hit fucking hard by the loss of business from a Hard Brexit and its ramifications also aye, I have a few friends who are all about the "working class exit vote" since they see it as the last option for the hopelessness they see in their communities but without a decent govt. looking out for them I figure they'll be the first on the dinner plate if shit doesn't work out - I feel like Corbyn is nursing a healthy boner over leaving the EU but without much hunger to take parliament and give people a future without it I mean, you're right, we don't really have much going for ourselves here. Saving grace could be big funding for free education so we can all become office twats or something in consultancy or finance or some other professional service role. It's a living I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ignatius Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 typo much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 the DUP, UVF & various other forms of cuntery would never, ever go 4 it, their "No Surrender" Paisley-era bs would soon clash with anything that encroached on their right to be "the British in Ulster" i've joint Brit-Eire citizenship & its typical of the assholes who inhabit certain provinces and their inbred one-eyed buffoonery to have leaped b4 looking where's the opposition in all this? Corbyn had the entire Tory establishment publicly splitting over the referendum, factions infighting, even Cameron went & what did he do? sweet-f.a. ......and any1 who believes thats Tory media bias needs a fuckin good slap we've just, just started to edge out of an economic nightmare post-2008 and now this this nation is one big eejut jacking off in public dribbling bodily fluids all over itself & our neighbours & it requires a long, focused word with itself It will get much worse in the coming 5-7 years, when the debt bubble bursts and the capitalistic machine grinds to a halt and realizes that bullshit is not a solid ground to build an economy on. Ebbs and tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psn Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Parliament must vote on Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jan/24/supreme-court-article-50-judgement-announces-its-article-50-judgment-politics-live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcock Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 labour are voting for it anyway so the outcome is garaunteed to be brexit the SNP's 60 mps or whatever arent even going to put a dint in the tories and labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chenGOD Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 typo much? I mean, they're not wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dingformung Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Today's ruling doesn't really impact the triggering of Article 50, the opposition are in a total disarray on this issue, only chance of preventing it would be all of them voting against, plus a couple of tory mutineers. Not going to happen. At best they'll be able to get a few amendments in which will, possibly, make the final deal less shitty (but will probably have little impact at all). There was a more significant ruling today though, that the devolved assembly will have no say in the triggering. Sturgeon has said they're going to go ahead and have a vote on it anyway, which the government will then ignore, and Sturgeon will then add that to the growing list of reasons for a 2nd independence referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwmbrancity Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Corbyn has to go he's lost the north of England as well as Scotland, with London Labour surely being big Remain voters i'm quietly sickened by the Labour leadership's position here May in DC sucking down Donald's flaccid man fat shortly and where is the opposition? the cunt factor is epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caze Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Friccin morons. I hope all the Labour MPs who voted for this but are from remain constituencies are all booted out at the next election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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