Will facebook survive

[kaini]

i dunno, i know the other people are big money oriented corporations but i still buy their games... but i have this visceral reaction to zynga. i can't explain it, but fuck zynga.

 

edit: and EA, actually

[oscillik]

Okay first off, oscillik must work for last.fm.

 

so because I point out a flaw in some supposed 'evidence' posted, I am affiliated with the company that is on the negative receiving end of said 'evidence'?

 

lol

 

 

I wish I did work for last.fm - then I'd have some money

 

[Dan C]

I thought osc worked for googleplus

[jules]

I just biked in to say I just fucking love readimg osc in tech threads. pure awesome.

 

also Facebook will just be buying any threats for the the foreseeable future. when people decide they want to start over is when fb will die. I think it's as simple as that.

[chenGOD]

I still think that posting a Google Trends graph, without even so much as a word to acknowledge that it has no pertinence to popularity is a bit of a pompous move.

 

A google trends graph has fairly clear relevance to popularity - after all, if something is becoming more popular in the street through word of mouth, people are likely to search for it on google.

What it doesn't have relevance to is already installed userbase.

 

As I said earlier, that seems more pertinent to 'curiosity' rather than 'popularity'.

 

For example, Google is one of the most popular search engines. But people don't generally search for Google to get to Google. Because they already know it.

 

Without some form of popularity, that level of interest isn't going to be sustained...that's a 3 year "curiosity" bubble.

If you compare the trends for facebook and myspace witht hose of last.fm and spotify, you can see similar patterns...

 

I'm not saying that google trends are ultimately correlated with popularity, but in this instance, there's a strong case to be made.

[vamos scorcho]

Okay first off, oscillik must work for last.fm.

 

secondly,

i guarantee facebook will not survive. it's well on its way to a myspace style downfall

Wait, what? I know it can become passe or lose popularity eventually, but it has more than 845 million users now.

 

OK, so it seems like it's a normal part of life, like brushing teeth and having a car. See, this is just wrong. It's not normal, and it's going the way of the Myspace. What's going to happen is that there are going to be developed much more exclusive social network sites and Facebook will die. It might be a slow death though. There are going to be major changes in the way people see the internet and its importance over the next ten years. Imagine how we saw the net in 2000... if it doesn't go the way of the TV (which it won't, and even if it does profits are to be made for innovators) then imagine that same amount of development, from 2000 to 2010, and project to 2020 or so. People will see Facebook as a collective embarrassment, except for old people who will probably keep using it. IDK.

 

Google+ had the right idea... except I think there's going to be a shitload of Google+'s meant to be much more exclusive, having more in common with something like message boards. People are going to integrate the websites they use into their personalities, much like they do clothing styles and TV shows they like. When something similar to Google+ manages to succeed, Facebook will be done. That's just my take on it, I say these words with enthusiasm and certainty because I don't like Facebook and I don't know anyone who does.

[vamos scorcho]

if you think about it, the net is already turning into TV. there are a bunch of channels that all basically look the same, and it's getting boring. I mean, you go on Donatos and it looks like a shitty Adobe Flash animation. You go on forums and the good ones ALL use templates like this or similar to this. There are some weird corners but for the most part its a sea of shitty blog templates [tumblr, wordpress, blogspot] social networks, news sites, Reddit [the monolith. how do they make money? this is the most important site going right now, period. kind of like a new 'internet' in and of itself], and from there it turns into art

[coax]

All companies will at some point fall. We predate on corporations almost as much as they do us. We use'em until they're useless, then all their shit is thrown out for the better alternative. Though yeah, it's hard to say when FB will decline for real, but I\d be very surprised if they were as relevant in 10 years.

[chenGOD]

social == exclusive? who knew.

[awesomeperson]

Everyone was on myspace at some point, it's just a matter of Facebook doing some crude mistake, start bloating it as they have started to do and it's done. Still, I think they'll survive longer than hi5 and myspace as long as they don't fuck up. They have a lot of companies spamming their shit all over the network so I imagine there's lots of interest behind Facebook besides people using it to collect imaginary friends and whatever else people use it for.

[kinski]

i'm a huge facebook supporter (it's not their fault your friends are retards, buzz off) because of it's convinience, but it's sinking fast atm. the timeline stuff reminds of of 'new myspace layouts' from 2009 or so when everyone left the site. plus i rarely see anyone still using it aside from people shooting shit at work.

[Guest bitroast]

Spotify has scrobbling?? Im only on last.fm for the stats !

[delet...]

So the lesson learned is that websites shouldn't change there interface (user experience) at all.

 

http://www.google.com

 

;-p

[mcbpete]

What's a zynga?

 

EDIT: Googled it. I had no idea people played those shit games so much. Madness.

Sounds like spyware trojan I caught on my PC years back from (stupidly) trying to run a crack on an antivirus package

[chenGOD]

Everyone was on myspace at some point.

 

From quick googling, it seems that at its high point myspace had about 100 million users. If we're generous lets say 150 million users.

Facebook at this point has 850 million users. There's also a considerable difference in they type of users - facebook does have a lot more older users, and while they might not be the most tech savvy, they're more willing to spend.

 

I'm not saying facebook can't make a colossal fuck-up and crash and burn. However, the management seems to be much better than the crew that news corp hired to fiddle while myspace burned.

 

lol at mcbpete: nicely done!

[Soloman Tump]

I avoided MySpace like the fucking plague. I couldn't even stand to visit bandpages.

 

Except the ae myspace page, that was the best thing about that site.

 

I forsee facebook having security breaches / data thefts / hacking / scandals etc that will give user confidence a real kick and cause them all sorts of problems. This could be the start of their downfall....

[awesomeperson]

Everyone was on myspace at some point.

 

From quick googling, it seems that at its high point myspace had about 100 million users. If we're generous lets say 150 million users.

Facebook at this point has 850 million users. There's also a considerable difference in they type of users - facebook does have a lot more older users, and while they might not be the most tech savvy, they're more willing to spend.

 

I'm not saying facebook can't make a colossal fuck-up and crash and burn. However, the management seems to be much better than the crew that news corp hired to fiddle while myspace burned.

 

lol at mcbpete: nicely done!

 

 

Yeah that's a good point, they don't allow GIFs or animated junk so that's a plus. Myspace used to crash and tax my home PC pretty badly, some pages were complete bonkers, Facebook's clean, safe and professional look is a great attraction to captivate new users, in my opinion the problem is when they start adding unnecessary new features and more junk that takes more clicks,

Google made the same mistake, they take everyone as a complete retard who can't finish words or press the Enter key, or when they think they know what you're really trying to search and show that instead of what you entered, that stuff annoys me so much, too bad there aren't any good alternatives to Google. Even Gmail is annoying to use now.

[patternoverlap]

Zuckerberg supporting CISPA certainly won't do much to improve his image.

[o00o]

I dunno, that's what I figured based on what people were saying

Spotify has scrobbling?? Im only on last.fm for the stats !

 

sure you can listen to all you want on spotify and it will directly scrobble to your last.fm page. There is a last.fm script so you can play every track with one click on discogs or the last.fm page as often as you like. you can import your complete profile into spotify with one click and listen to the loved and normal tracks. there also last.fm plugins in spotify that let you access your last.fm profile inside the spotify software.

 

There is also a normal mp3 player in spotify that lets you play your local mp3s (and also scrobbles them to facebook and / or last.fm if you wish). your local mp3s will also be listed with the results if you search for music

[oscillik]

I avoided MySpace like the fucking plague. I couldn't even stand to visit bandpages.

 

Except the ae myspace page, that was the best thing about that site.

 

I forsee facebook having security breaches / data thefts / hacking / scandals etc that will give user confidence a real kick and cause them all sorts of problems. This could be the start of their downfall....

Zuckerberg supporting CISPA certainly won't do much to improve his image.

 

People don't care. There have been scandals, data privacy issues, etc, and people just don't care. Of the vocal minority that threaten to leave, many either don't do it at all, or those that do just end up signing back up within days.

 

Facebook has entered into the ubiquitous stage for many many people, regardless of the actual fact that it isn't necessary for everyone to have an account to function in society.

 

yay apathy!

[o00o]

I avoided MySpace like the fucking plague. I couldn't even stand to visit bandpages.

 

Except the ae myspace page, that was the best thing about that site.

 

I forsee facebook having security breaches / data thefts / hacking / scandals etc that will give user confidence a real kick and cause them all sorts of problems. This could be the start of their downfall....

Zuckerberg supporting CISPA certainly won't do much to improve his image.

 

People don't care. There have been scandals, data privacy issues, etc, and people just don't care. Of the vocal minority that threaten to leave, many either don't do it at all, or those that do just end up signing back up within days.

 

Facebook has entered into the ubiquitous stage for many many people, regardless of the actual fact that it isn't necessary for everyone to have an account to function in society.

 

yay apathy!

 

yeah its incredible how ubiquitous it has become. If I see people in the train surfing on their mobile phone there is a 60% chance they are on facebook

[Guest KY]

Okay first off, oscillik must work for last.fm.

 

so because I point out a flaw in some supposed 'evidence' posted, I am affiliated with the company that is on the negative receiving end of said 'evidence'?

 

lol

 

 

I wish I did work for last.fm - then I'd have some money

 

lol nah i'm just fucking around. i've never actually used last.fm for its radio feature anyway, just for music-logging.

 

pinterest's userbase is 70% female IN THE US.

in the rest of the world, the demographics are much more similar to those of facebook.

i don't disbelieve you, but do you have a source on that? if not, i'm not exactly vested in one opinion, so it doesn't really matter anyway lol

[oscillik]

Okay first off, oscillik must work for last.fm.

 

so because I point out a flaw in some supposed 'evidence' posted, I am affiliated with the company that is on the negative receiving end of said 'evidence'?

 

lol

 

 

I wish I did work for last.fm - then I'd have some money

 

lol nah i'm just fucking around. i've never actually used last.fm for its radio feature anyway, just for music-logging.

 

 

[Soloman Tump]

The 3 people I know who use pinterest are all female, all in the UK.

Its all for logging pictures of clothes, wedding cakes and shit like that.

[Guest KY]

The 3 people I know who use pinterest are all female, all in the UK.

 

welp, case closed