2020 US Election

[caze]

Both Bernie and Biden have consistently polled well in head-to-heads against Trump, with Biden doing a bit better on average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

Of course Clinton also polled better than Trump, and she didn't win the election, just the popular vote, so there's a reasonable chance the same will happen again (probably a bigger chance than him winning the last time due to the fact that he's incumbent, and the economy is doing ok).

The key will be turnout, will the Republicans (and Russians) be able to sour people on either candidate enough to keep turnout low? Biden doesn't have anywhere near the same negatives that Clinton had (not that her negatives were real, it was more delusional paranoia), he's generally very well liked (compare his favorability figures to Clinton's from the same time period), Bernie has slightly worse figures, but they haven't even started their attacks on him yet (unlike with Biden and his son/Ukraine - which seem to have had only a minor impact compared to the Clinton smears), and they can beat him with the commie stick day and night. Sanders' negatives will play particularly badly with independents/swing voters, the kind of people likely to determine the result in the rust belt states, not the young people Bernie is hoping to increase turnout with (he can't even increase turnout in the democratic primary ffs, it was Biden who did that, massively; how's he supposed to manage it in the general election?).

[Blir]

Politics is miserable guys. Cheer yourselves up:

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/biden4pres?s=09

[cwmbrancity]

3 hours ago, Blir said:

I just don't see a future where this will ever happen.

This.

politics is just another tool of business. 

[may be rude]

2 hours ago, caze said:

Both Bernie and Biden have consistently polled well in head-to-heads against Trump, with Biden doing a bit better on average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

Of course Clinton also polled better than Trump, and she didn't win the election, just the popular vote, so there's a reasonable chance the same will happen again (probably a bigger chance than him winning the last time due to the fact that he's incumbent, and the economy is doing ok).

The key will be turnout, will the Republicans (and Russians) be able to sour people on either candidate enough to keep turnout low? Biden doesn't have anywhere near the same negatives that Clinton had (not that her negatives were real, it was more delusional paranoia), he's generally very well liked (compare his favorability figures to Clinton's from the same time period), Bernie has slightly worse figures, but they haven't even started their attacks on him yet (unlike with Biden and his son/Ukraine - which seem to have had only a minor impact compared to the Clinton smears), and they can beat him with the commie stick day and night. Sanders' negatives will play particularly badly with independents/swing voters, the kind of people likely to determine the result in the rust belt states, not the young people Bernie is hoping to increase turnout with (he can't even increase turnout in the democratic primary ffs, it was Biden who did that, massively; how's he supposed to manage it in the general election?).

 

yes, the negatives are key. there's persuasion and there's mobilization. if you don't have a good case to make for your side, demobilizing the other side is your path. 

 

cambridge analytica was targeting the paranoids. they targetted "dark triad" personality types to be recipients of their deceptive manipulation naratives. christopher wylie says bannon sensed the potential of angry men online and was tapping into it.

Edited March 5, 2020 by very honest

[zero]

16 hours ago, Zeffolia said:

either you're an authoritarian or you're an anarchist, and you're either left or right.  it's time to choose and start engaging in and preparing for direct action in your local community, possibly even moving to more rural locations where less sufficiently advanced means of production are required and you can live off the land in a more primitivistic way

I like the way you combined both the dystopia of Tomorrow's Harvest and the more pastoral IABPOITC themes together here. seems like you were just a sentence or two away from talking about stockpiling weapons and joining a religious community in a beautiful place out in the country...maybe Bernie should drop out and just invite everyone to come live with him off the grid in Vermont...

[BobDobalina]

4 hours ago, Blir said:

I just don't see a future where this will ever happen.

Sadly I agree, but at the same time I also find it unacceptable to live in acceptance this machination that, while not solely culpable, is leading this country and humanity to ruin.  the masses here have become so conditioned to the notion that money in politics is just the natural way of things that no one even questions or talks about it anymore.  great job media!  I can think of at least half a dozen other "good government" reforms that make complete sense that we've been conditioned to believe would be too "hard" or "who's going to pay for it" to ever get effected, so why even talk about them?  Term limits, ending lifetime judgeships, nonpartisan redistricting / electoral college reform, reigning in the power of a single Senator to basically gridlock the federal gov't...

Anyway, I support this cause https://movetoamend.org/ since the first step is necessarily overturning the absurdity of Citizens United (again, something not talked about anymore) and has a growing base in the House of Reps.  Join us in the fight comrades.

1 hour ago, Blir said:

Politics is miserable guys. Cheer yourselves up:

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/biden4pres?s=09

Who-ever chose that snippet for musical accompaniment deserves an award.  Boomer perfection.

[Lada Laika]

[Silent Member]

The funny thing is you're getting neither of those.

 

Fucksake.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Gocab

[dr lopez]

warren is out. our national nightmare is over

[YangYing]

5 hours ago, MIXL2 said:

6 hours ago, Candiru said:

Trump wanted to run against Bernie. Ask yourself why

idk, to me it feels like he always wanted to run against biden with the whole burisma shtick and shit, and is only using the "oh poor bernie" as a facade to appeal to dum dums

but maybe im giving the orange man way too much credit

im curious, what do people think of this? it doesn't makes sense to me that trump went trough all the effort to find dirt on biden and shit while at the same time not wanting to run against him but idk

[Candiru]

18 minutes ago, MIXL2 said:

im curious, what do people think of this? it doesn't makes sense to me that trump went trough all the effort to find dirt on biden and shit while at the same time not wanting to run against him but idk

He had plans to take out Biden before he even announced he was running. Strategists know Bernie would lose the swing states, younger supporters still can't be counted on to vote, as we can see. Biden's polling way ahead of him in Florida. People voting for Biden just want to hit the reset button. 

[YangYing]

Just now, Candiru said:

He had plans to take out Biden before he even announced he was running. Strategists know Bernie would lose the swing states, younger supporters still can't be counted on to vote, as we can see. Biden's polling way ahead of him in Florida. People voting for Biden just want to hit the reset button. 

aye, maybe biden does have the best chance to beat trump after all...

[Candiru]

1 minute ago, MIXL2 said:

aye, maybe biden does have the best chance to beat trump after all...

It's been known for a while. I'd been watching fiendish Bernie supporters nervously, knowing they were being strung along by their emotions with empty promises straight to an electoral bloodbath that would've been the finishing blow to the USA, but hey whatevs. 

[Nebraska]

15 minutes ago, dr lopez said:

warren is out. our national nightmare is over

it was over when she couldn't even win her home state.

i'm guessing now she'll be endorsing biden so as to complete the circle

[Nebraska]

 

 

[Silent Member]

This seems normal

[may be rude]

54 minutes ago, Nebraska said:

 

 

 

1. that video is edited. it cuts after the word "premiums"
2. the second text quote in that tweet, "not quality, but only affordable," misrepresent the content. Biden was correcting himself.
3. Biden stutters. this is a speech disorder. the way he controls it when speaking is to shift to a different part of what he is talking about when he feels a stutter coming. 
4. i've been seeing a number of these videos being shared, in which a biden speech is sensationalized and misrepresented, capitalizing on his speech disorder, to mislead voters about the presidential candidate
5. this messaging is consistent with the gop strategy to deceitfully raise the unfavorability of the dems because it's easier than trying to make themselves look good

Edited March 5, 2020 by very honest

[ignatius]

it's a shame we have to go through actual conventions and all that crap. would be good to just vote in the general election like 2 weeks after the primary and get this fucking shit overwith 

Edited March 5, 2020 by ignatius

[EdamAnchorman]

21 hours ago, very honest said:

 

[joshuatxuk]

2 hours ago, Nebraska said:

it was over when she couldn't even win her home state.

i'm guessing now she'll be endorsing biden so as to complete the circle

I think her base is about 50/50 Biden/Sanders, anecdotally I noticed her supporters were either educated millennials who will def prefer Bernie or older liberals who will fall back on Biden.

[J3FF3R00]

58 minutes ago, joshuatxuk said:

I think her base is about 50/50 Biden/Sanders, anecdotally I noticed her supporters were either educated millennials who will def prefer Bernie or older liberals who will fall back on Biden.

All of the Warren supporters I know are essentially “Bernie supporters” that simply prefer her branding. There’s a huge crossover.

I suspect she’ll either endorse Bernie or no one at all. If she doesn’t endorse Bernie it will likely be because of the whole “woman president” debacle at that one debate. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-woman-president.html

[W23]

I’m convinced that the DNC is ok with four more years of Trump.

[joshuatxuk]

1 hour ago, J3FF3R00 said:

All of the Warren supporters I know are essentially “Bernie supporters” that simply prefer her branding. There’s a huge crossover.

I suspect she’ll either endorse Bernie or no one at all. If she doesn’t endorse Bernie it will likely be because of the whole “woman president” debacle at that one debate. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/us/politics/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-woman-president.html

I hope this is the case, my 50/50 is a more pessimistic worst case scenario guess.

[Candiru]

1 minute ago, Mesh Gear Fox said:

wait...so you're actually stanning for biden here? you know you're objectively wrong about this and he will definitely lose to trump, right? i think you're the brainwashed one, mate.

Please tell me how Bernie can win the general election. 

[dingformung]

I think both Sanders and Biden can possibly beat Trump. Bernie even still has a small chance to win the nomination, though it seems unlikely right now. I can't really tell who would be better at beating Trump. Maybe some wise scholar of WATMM can tell me the definite answer