Coronavirus COVID-19

[cwmbrancity]

8 hours ago, Tim_J said:

Actually there's more people dead than alive... So... 

 

8 hours ago, sweepstakes said:

I think this might not actually be true, at least it wasn't about 10 years ago.

Which is fucking disturbing.

Approx 100-110 billion humans have existed. They get prioritised in all after-life activities - dinner reservations, union representation, appointments with the gods & balk at social distancing practices. Ouija boards & seances are just chatlines to their prankster brigades. Know your ghosts.

[brian trageskin]

13 hours ago, brian trageskin said:

just wanted to say i calculated the fractions of corona-related deaths among the entire populations of the US and france, so i could better visualize the proportions. these numbers are obviously approximate for various reasons: census populations from 2019, clandestines and other types of residents are obviously not counted, not all corona-related deaths are detected (supposedly) etc. 

i'm quite sure a few people who are way more competent than i have already calculated those numbers but at the end of the day this was an exercize in learning again how to calculate percentages and convert them to fractions. yeah i'm that bad at math

i should also mention that i'm not trying to politicize these numbers. do what you will with them

anyway here's what i got:

- so far, 1 out of 2857 died a corona-related death in the US

- 1 out of 2325 in france 

please keep in mind these are rough numbers. feel free to correct me if i made mistakes 

 

ok let's politicize this  

just kidding. i just find it interesting that the US aren't doing that bad so far, compared to other countries. obviously there are many reasons for this. btw the UK has 1 death per 1639 people, which is even worse 

but yeah again, these are rough numbers based on partial data, the real numbers are obviously quite different

one can only conclude that trump did a much better job in managing this crisis than the UK or france 

Spoiler

just kidding bro

Spoiler

relax

 

[brian trageskin]

oh and yeah, we'll see how things progress in the long run

[Nil]

Macron is a pile of shit as well, no need to discuss that. Just a different kind of pile of shit.

[cwmbrancity]

wanna compare shit?

https://www.suttonccg.nhs.uk/vanguard/Resources/PublishingImages/Pages/default/Bristol Stool Chart - A3 poster.pdf

[may be rude]

15 hours ago, brian trageskin said:

just wanted to say i calculated the fractions of corona-related deaths among the entire populations of the US and france, so i could better visualize the proportions. these numbers are obviously approximate for various reasons: census populations from 2019, clandestines and other types of residents are obviously not counted, not all corona-related deaths are detected (supposedly) etc. 

i'm quite sure a few people who are way more competent than i have already calculated those numbers but at the end of the day this was an exercize in learning again how to calculate percentages and convert them to fractions. yeah i'm that bad at math

i should also mention that i'm not trying to politicize these numbers. do what you will with them

anyway here's what i got:

- so far, 1 out of 2857 died a corona-related death in the US

- 1 out of 2325 in france 

please keep in mind these are rough numbers. feel free to correct me if i made mistakes 

 

a thousand people dying per day. (US)

 

trends are surging in many states. this is supposed to be the slow season for respiratory illnesses. we don't know what fall and winter will be like

 

flu deaths in the US is around 40k per year, averaged over the last 10 years, despite what putin-paid twitter accounts and the US president may suggest.

 

the 100,000 + dead in the US occurred over 3 months, with much of the country shut down and socially distancing. leading medical cause of death in US is heart disease, around 650,000 per year. give covid 9 more months, i think it has a shot to overtake it. at least with trump, the GOP, and fox news in power.

 

we have a president who seems to be trying to make the epidemic as bad as possible, maybe because he is compromised by the russian mob and knows they will try to tilt the election his way, again, in 2020, so this is how he is trying to lose, this time, or something. nice to see other countries are getting it under control. clearly it is possible, though not easy.

 

here's the big, continuously updated, no-pay-wall NYT covid data page with all the charts:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html  today, states in the "cases are increasing" category outnumber states in the "cases are decreasing" category.

 

deaths look like they are in decline now, but that trend will turn in a week or two. there's like a 4 week delay between transmission and death. severe covid cases linger on ventilators for like 2 weeks before they succumb. may 23, memorial day weekend, is when trump mandated churches open, and his GOP did a hard push on reopening/everything is fine messaging, and it was nice outside so everyone was like ok, cool, great. new cases & hospitalizations have a 2 week delay after transmission, and we see the uptick 2 weeks after may 23. deaths are following behind that trend. then, a week after memorial day, the BLM protests started. in like every city. with crowds packed, chanting, screaming and getting arrested.

Edited June 13, 2020 by very honest

[EdamAnchorman]

1 hour ago, cwmbrancity said:

wanna compare shit?

https://www.suttonccg.nhs.uk/vanguard/Resources/PublishingImages/Pages/default/Bristol Stool Chart - A3 poster.pdf

"Like a sausage or a snake, smooth and soft"  sounds to me like an Underworld lyric.

[dingformung]

I'm surprised that France is handling this so badly. How did two similarly sized countries, France and Germany, located right next to each other and with comparable levels of wealth and resources and good healthcare systems, end up with such different outcomes?

[sweepstakes]

2 hours ago, cwmbrancity said:

 

Approx 100-110 billion humans have existed. They get prioritised in all after-life activities - dinner reservations, union representation, appointments with the gods & balk at social distancing practices. Ouija boards & seances are just chatlines to their prankster brigades. Know your ghosts.

Yeah this checks out

https://www.prb.org/howmanypeoplehaveeverlivedonearth/

Sorry for flinging bullshit, I've been real sloppy as of late

[cwmbrancity]

@sweepstakes Think of Essex

https://www.google.com/maps/place/penis+biters/@51.9281583,1.2662094,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m12!1m6!3m5!1s0x47d971bf29afa8af:0x4fed862bf1bda7a3!2spenis+biters!8m2!3d51.9281583!4d1.2683981!3m4!1s0x47d971bf29afa8af:0x4fed862bf1bda7a3!8m2!3d51.9281583!4d1.2683981

[caze]

18 hours ago, brian trageskin said:

i just find it interesting that the US aren't doing that bad so far, compared to other countries. obviously there are many reasons for this. btw the UK has 1 death per 1639 people, which is even worse 

you really can't compare a country with a population of over 300 million people to one with around 65 million. It would make more sense to compare the US to Europe as a whole, or to compare individual states to similarly sized countries. New York, which has a population of over 8 million, has a death rate of 1,587 people per million, which is a greater death rate than any country in the world (the UK rate is 614/million). the most populous US state, California, only has a rate of 128/million. Nearly half the states in the country have death rates between 100/million and 50/million.

Both the UK and the US responded terribly to this, and it shows in the numbers, parts of the US were lucky, for now, but it's pretty likely the rest of the country will get hit much harder in a 2nd wave if it happens (and it probably will).

[brian trageskin]

4 hours ago, caze said:

you really can't compare a country with a population of over 300 million people to one with around 65 million. It would make more sense to compare the US to Europe as a whole, or to compare individual states to similarly sized countries. New York, which has a population of over 8 million, has a death rate of 1,587 people per million, which is a greater death rate than any country in the world (the UK rate is 614/million). the most populous US state, California, only has a rate of 128/million. Nearly half the states in the country have death rates between 100/million and 50/million.

Both the UK and the US responded terribly to this, and it shows in the numbers, parts of the US were lucky, for now, but it's pretty likely the rest of the country will get hit much harder in a 2nd wave if it happens (and it probably will).

yeah i guess the density of population in a given area plays a major role 

btw the point i was trying to make is that the US has a much lower death rate than it seems, so far. yeah NYC has a death rate of 1 per 630, that's fucked up. 

maybe i should calculate the death rate of europe as a whole as you suggest, which would involve extra math tricks that i could learn in the process. not saying i'm definitely gonna do so cuz i'm an extremely lazy person.

Edited June 14, 2020 by brian trageskin

[EdamAnchorman]

4 hours ago, caze said:

Both the UK and the US responded terribly to this, and it shows in the numbers, parts of the US were lucky, for now, but it's pretty likely the rest of the country will get hit much harder in a 2nd wave if it happens (and it probably will).

Plus, because of the size and heterogeneity of the US, some regions will only be hitting their first wave at the same time others hit the second wave.  The lagging states are re-opening because they see the states that are over the hump of the first wave reopening, but they themselves aren't even through their first wave yet.

edit:  re: calculating the overall European death rate, just multiply each death rate by each country's total population to give you the total deaths per country, add all those number together to get total deaths in Europe, then divide that number by millions of people in Europe to get the deaths per million.

Edited June 14, 2020 by randomsummer

[d-a-m-o]

21 hours ago, dingformung said:

I'm surprised that France is handling this so badly. How did two similarly sized countries, France and Germany, located right next to each other and with comparable levels of wealth and resources and good healthcare systems, end up with such different outcomes?

not sure if trolling or serious ?

[brian trageskin]

45 minutes ago, randomsummer said:

edit:  re: calculating the overall European death rate, just multiply each death rate by each country's total population to give you the total deaths per country, add all those number together to get total deaths in Europe, then divide that number by millions of people in Europe to get the deaths per million.

i don't get it but i suck at math so it's on me

 

[brian trageskin]

(i've just realized i'm an absolute dumbass: want to know death rates in terms of 1 per [insert number]? divide the population by the number of deaths. boom there you have it. rocket science-level math. the method i used the other day is beyond stupid. at least i learnt how to convert percentages to fractions)

anyway i calculated the average covid-related death rate in the EU which is 1 per 28206 (again this is a rough number, you get slightly different results depending on your source). that's 10 times less than the US. although the EU is much more populated than the US (not sure how to interpret that exactly - does that mean the US' situation is even worse in that case or things are more complicated than that?)

(btw this time i used the published death rates per million, divided 1 million by the other number, then added the results for each country and divided that by the number of countries - can i have my lollipop now ma'am)

different EU countries have dramatically different death rates. eastern europe is pretty safe, very few deaths if their numbers are accurate. and surprisingly belgium has the biggest death rate in the EU by far (1 per 1200). jupiler and bicky burgers don't help it seems

so yeah, so far covid-19 killed 10 times more people in the US than in the EU. and belgium's no. 1 in something for once

 

 

 

 

[ghsotword]

The table on this website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries has a column for "1 Death every x ppl" but it's not showing it by default, you have to enable it from the Columns dropdown menu

[brian trageskin]

cheers for that 

at least that wasn't a complete waste of time, my math was correct 

 

 

 

 

[brian trageskin]

i'm suddenly realizing i could have simply added up the reported deaths from each country, then divided the EU population by that number. i'm also having doubts i would get the same result, which is stupid since it'd be the same. i guess?

Edited June 14, 2020 by brian trageskin

[ghsotword]

I think something was not right with your calculation that gave 1 per 28206 as the death rate in the EU. I tried replicating this with the numbers taken from worldometers.info and got 1 per 3436.34 as the answer instead. I'm putting the raw numbers for the EU countries in the spoiler, so you can check if I was wrong somewhere if it looks like that to you

Spoiler

Country,Total.Deaths,Population
Cyprus,18,1206943
Italy,34301,60465633
France,29398,65267057
Spain,27136,46753986
Belgium,9655,11587314
Germany,8867,83771837
Netherlands,6059,17133178
Sweden,4874,10096321
Ireland,1705,4935066
Portugal,1517,10197961
Romania,1410,19242854
Poland,1247,37848394
Austria,677,9004010
Denmark,597,5791277
Hungary,562,9661388
Czechia,328,10708097
Finland,326,5540338
Greece,183,10425147
Bulgaria,172,6950527
Luxembourg,110,625448
Slovenia,109,2078926
Croatia,107,4106292
Lithuania,75,2723683
Estonia,69,1326496
Slovakia,28,5459526
Latvia,28,1886992
Malta,9,441490

 

[brian trageskin]

ok i just had the proof that i had excellent reasons to doubt my math

forget my estimation that the EU has 1 death every 28206 people. completely off. i have no idea why the method i used to get this result is completely wrong and i'm sure many among you can explain that. all i know is i thought about it afterwards and was like, there's something very wrong with that method but i can't put my finger on what it is.

anyway i did the math again, this time simply adding up each country's reported covid deaths and divide the EU population by that number. based on the census population of 2019, the death rate in the EU is 1 per 3449. which isn't 10 times less than the US as i said earlier, AT ALL. i was way off. 

 

 

[brian trageskin]

yeah cheers for that as well dude

many lessons learnt today: i'm an idiot - don't listen to me - only do so when i've triple-checked my math - belgium wins - the EU is doing better than the US by about 20% so far - i'm having a manic episode please help i can't escape - etc.

[goDel]

nothing better to do with your time?

it's still apples and oranges to make comparisons such as that. no matter the math. please go make some more tunes, or something.

[brian trageskin]

it gives you a better picture of the situation, which is what i'm after. is the US doomed because of covid-19? so far, not that much compared to other parts of the world, if you look at the numbers. contrary to what the media portrayed. 

now obviously the virus will continue to spread and the recent social events in the US didn't help so we'll see how things progress. i'm only judging the current state of things.

also yeah, i have nothing better to do obviously + this was an exercise, i wanted to see if i could do the math myself. i did quite a few mistakes but i was able to spot them in the end. quite cool imo

[goDel]

for numbers and stats, go here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data

other than that, it's just silly to reduce this issue to a single indicator such as you're doing. not only are you ignoring the fact that the virus started spreading at different moments in time in different regions. you're also ignoring the underlying context of why numbers are higher in one location over another. much of the underlying causal relations are still unknown at this point, so this whole measuring dick-size nonsense is just that: nonsense.

if you want to compare policies, you might want to compare those "are we bending the curve?" stats in the link i posted. there's a couple of them. also note that there's evidence this virus is very sensitive to superspreading events. which means that a relatively small amount of people infect a relatively large amount of people. (note how the R0 is just an average which ignores this factor) if true, most policies might not be as effective as assumed. (not saying you should ignore them, btw. you shouldn't!). most effective might be just to avoid crowds, and thats it. but we simply dont know at this point in time. (again, not arguing you shouldnt follow current national policies! whatever they are)