Jump to content
IGNORED

Mathematical prediction of next Autechre album's popularity

zlemflolia

By zlemflolia
in Autechre

Recommended Posts

zlemflolia Grand Master

zlemflolia

Posted
Posted

Below is the amount of time between each release

 

Next to each is the percent of people who have that album as their favorite based on this poll

http://www.misterpol.../486973/results

 

Incunabula 1993-11 (3%)

---> (12 months)

Amber 1994-11 (7%)

---> (12 months)

Tri Repetae 1995-11 (9%)

---> (15 months)

Chiastic Slide 1997-02 (10%)

---> (17 months)

LP5 1998-07 (15%)

---> (36 months)

Confield 2001-04 (18%)

---> (23 months)

Draft 7.30 2003-04 (10%)

---> (24 months)

Untilted 2005-04 (14%)

---> (36 months)

Quaristice 2008-03 (2%)

---> (23 months)

Oversteps 2010-02 (7%)

--->---> ---> ---> (29 months)

---> ---> ---> PRESENT 2012-06

 

Ratio of percent favorite album to time since last release before this release:

 

Amber (12 months, 7%) -----------------> .58

Tri Repetae (12 months, 9%) -----------------> .75

Chiastic Slide (15 months, 10%) -----------------> .66

LP5 (17 months, 15%) -----------------> .88

Confield (36 months, 18%) -----------------> .50

Draft 7.30 (23 months, 14%) -----------------> .61

Untilted (24 months, 14%) -----------------> .58

Quaristice (36 months, 2%) -----------------> .05

Oversteps (23 months, 7%) -----------------> .30

 

x^2-Test results in a 0.7235% chance of coincidental popularity to release time ratios so the following additional calculations must be taken with a grain of salt

 

Assuming the poll represents actual popularity values...

str1 - Average ratio: .5455

str2 - Average ratio (excluding outlier Quaristice): .6075

StDev(str2) = .171109

-------> 90% confidence that the true popularity percentage is within (0.514 , 0.712) times the number of months since the last release

 

It has been 29 months since the last release, so there is a 90% chance that the next album will have within 14.9% to 20.6% popularity as the listener's favorite Autechre album if released today. Compared to other albums that means it will be in the Untilted to Confield range of goodness

 

This entire test was done out of boredom for entertainment. Don't take it seriously

Link to comment
Share on other sites
o00o Grand Master

o00o

Posted
Posted

Below is the amount of time between each release

 

Next to each is the percent of people who have that album as their favorite based on this poll

http://www.misterpol.../486973/results

 

Incunabula 1993-11 (3%)

---> (12 months)

Amber 1994-11 (7%)

---> (12 months)

Tri Repetae 1995-11 (9%)

---> (15 months)

Chiastic Slide 1997-02 (10%)

---> (17 months)

LP5 1998-07 (15%)

---> (36 months)

Confield 2001-04 (18%)

---> (23 months)

Draft 7.30 2003-04 (10%)

---> (24 months)

Untilted 2005-04 (14%)

---> (36 months)

Quaristice 2008-03 (2%)

---> (23 months)

Oversteps 2010-02 (7%)

--->---> ---> ---> (29 months)

---> ---> ---> PRESENT 2012-06

 

Ratio of percent favorite album to time since last release before this release:

 

Amber (12 months, 7%) -----------------> .58

Tri Repetae (12 months, 9%) -----------------> .75

Chiastic Slide (15 months, 10%) -----------------> .66

LP5 (17 months, 15%) -----------------> .88

Confield (36 months, 18%) -----------------> .50

Draft 7.30 (23 months, 14%) -----------------> .61

Untilted (24 months, 14%) -----------------> .58

Quaristice (36 months, 2%) -----------------> .05

Oversteps (23 months, 7%) -----------------> .30

 

x^2-Test results in a 0.7235% chance of coincidental popularity to release time ratios so the following additional calculations must be taken with a grain of salt

 

Assuming the poll represents actual popularity values...

str1 - Average ratio: .5455

str2 - Average ratio (excluding outlier Quaristice): .6075

StDev(str2) = .171109

-------> 90% confidence that the true popularity percentage is within (0.514 , 0.712) times the number of months since the last release

 

It has been 29 months since the last release, so there is a 90% chance that the next album will have within 14.9% to 20.6% popularity as the listener's favorite Autechre album if released today. Compared to other albums that means it will be in the Untilted to Confield range of goodness

 

This entire test was done out of boredom for entertainment. Don't take it seriously

 

could you do it with aphex too pls?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
chassis Grand Master

chassis

Posted
Posted

If you plot the popularity over the time preceding the months and then plot it as a function of time. You get a graph that could be best fit with a 6th powered polynomial. The equation given by

 

y = 8E-06x6 - 0.0002x5 + 0.0027x4 - 0.0147x3 + 0.041x2 - 0.0521x + 0.0293

R² = 0.7911

dSMtB.jpg

figure 1: graph

as you see from figure 1, the polynomial has been forecasted forward by an interval of 0.5. The exponential increase shows that either the album will be extremely popular or the wait will be very short.

Since the wait has already been 29 months, one might conclude that the next album will arrive very soon and it will be very popular.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kaini Grand Master

kaini

Posted
Posted

popularity = ((number of months since fanboy has had sex with an actual woman times number of albums that sound like a computer having an epileptic fit times population of bald germans who would masturbate to a car alarm) divided by (world supply of LSD times (number of months since BoC release plus number of months since AFX release)) all multiplied by number of pages on ulillillia's site.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
auxien Grand Master

auxien

Posted
Posted

according to this, April album releases are pretty much guaranteed to be popular. they should've dropped it last month, we'd have all jizzed ourselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kavinsky Grand Master

Kavinsky

Posted
Posted

If you plot the popularity over the time preceding the months and then plot it as a function of time. You get a graph that could be best fit with a 6th powered polynomial. The equation given by

 

y = 8E-06x6 - 0.0002x5 + 0.0027x4 - 0.0147x3 + 0.041x2 - 0.0521x + 0.0293

R² = 0.7911

dSMtB.jpg

figure 1: graph

as you see from figure 1, the polynomial has been forecasted forward by an interval of 0.5. The exponential increase shows that either the album will be extremely popular or the wait will be very short.

Since the wait has already been 29 months, one might conclude that the next album will arrive very soon and it will be very popular.

 

 

that could be the next AE Cover

 

My God Autechre is really for Nerds

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.